In an onstage interview at the World Economic Forum on Jan. 21, President Trump was asked how he intends to tackle the gigantic increase in federal deficits and debt, which according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and almost all private forecasts, will only keep worsening under current policies. “The big thing is growth,” responded the POTUS. “Growth is the way we go from high debt to low debt. We’re going to be growing our way out, and I think we’re going to be paying down debt.” Trump has frequently stated that his manifesto, which champions sweeping deregulation and domestic manufacturing, alongside the rapid rise of AI—Trump trumpets that he personally orchestrated the technology’s single biggest initiative, the $500 billion, multi-partner Stargate data center project—will unleash a revolution igniting a historic surge in productivity. His thesis: As America generates more and more goods and services per worker and dollar newly invested in plants, fabs, and data centers, GDP will shift to a far higher gear, bringing an enduring surge of tax receipts—even at the One Big Beautiful Bill’s reduced rates.
The question naturally arises: What pace of expansion, versus what the CBO now predicts, would be required to erase the bulging, structural gulf between revenues and expenses, so that our debt and interest expense stops its explosive rise? And is that remotely realistic?
