Donald Trump’s election win is likely bad news for the EV industry. Tesla’s stock is soaring, however, with CEO Elon Musk seemingly poised to be one of the most influential voices in a second Trump administration. The company’s shares are up nearly 40% since Election Day last Tuesday after surging over 7% Monday morning to move above the $340 mark.
Unsurprisingly, one of Wall Street’s most prominent Tesla bulls believes the rally still has room to run. According to Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives, the EV maker is much more than a car company, with AI and autonomous driving representing a $1 trillion opportunity for Tesla.
Musk has effectively bet the future of Tesla on this AI story. The vision largely hinges, however, on Tesla making great strides with its full self-driving software, which currently requires close driver supervision and has been the subject of numerous lawsuits. Trump’s return to the Oval Office, Ives said, could fast-track the software’s implementation as the “federal regulatory spiderweb” Tesla has encountered in recent year clears significantly.
“We believe Tesla remains the most undervalued AI play in the market today,” Ives wrote in a note Monday. “In essence, Musk made a strategic and big bet on a Trump White House win that will be known as a 'bet for the ages' for TSLA bulls as now Tesla and Musk are set to reap the benefits from a new friendlier regulatory era in the Beltway ahead.”
Are Tesla shares overvalued?
As a result, Wedbush has upped its price target for the EV giant from $300 to $400. The company already reclaimed a $1 trillion valuation last week, as Fortune’s Christiaan Hetzner noted Monday, and is now worth more than the next 15 largest carmakers combined —from Toyota and General Motors all the way down to Jeep’s parent company Stellantis and Hyundai.
It's been a dramatic upswing in a topsy-turvy year for Tesla’s stock, which was down 43% for the year and sat just above the $140 mark in April. Shares are now up by roughly that same margin in 2024, with investors pricing in massive upside.
The stock is currently trading above 100 times its forward earnings. Even among the tech giants in the Magnificent Seven, America’s seven largest companies by market cap, that multiple is in a league of its own. The member with the next highest P/E ratio is blockbuster AI chipmaker Nvidia, currently the largest company in the world, with its stock trading at roughly 36 times next year’s projected earnings.
Unsurprisingly, several analysts believe Tesla’s shares are massively overvalued. Some have recalled Tesla’s status as the original “meme-stock,” noting the post-election rally has been mirrored by a crypto boom.
Ives, however, thinks a Trump White House will help Tesla reassert itself as the king of electric vehicles. While the new political environment likely means the end of EV tax credits—which have been a critical subsidy for Tesla and the rest of the industry—he believes Musk's firm is in better position than the competition.
“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched in the EV industry and this dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment starting in 2025,” Ives said.
Higher tariffs on China, perhaps the biggest pillar of Trump’s economic platform, might also help Tesla’s hold on the U.S. market, Ives added. Chinese EV players like Berkshire Hathaway-backed BYD already face 100% tariffs enacted under the Biden administration.
Nonetheless, a trade war is likely not in the best interest of Tesla, for which China is a key market. Ives said he anticipates significant carveouts for Tesla and Apple, though, and expects Musk to have a big say on tariff policy. It appears plenty of investors share his optimism.
