Somewhere between the strait of Hormuz and the screens of Bloomberg terminals around the world, the standard laws of cause and effect appear to have been suspended for Donald Trump’s war in Iran.
Trump this week soft-launched his latest Iran peace talks – which he has said must be accepted or “we’ll just keep bombing our little hearts out” – with few details or proof that anyone in the Iranian regime was willing to listen to him. The ultimatum was described as “maximalist” by Iran and quickly derided as a non-starter by analysts and former government officials.
Iran’s response to the 15-point plan appeared to be a resounding no, demanding instead that Tehran be given sovereignty over the strait of Hormuz, in effect confirming its control – or at least veto power – over the world energy trade.
And as a result of what appeared to be a gaping rift in the negotiating positions, financial markets rallied, with stocks pushing higher and Brent crude falling below $100 a barrel, in a holding pattern that many analysts can only chalk up to the US president’s ability to will oil markets to trust his plan to wrap up the conflict in the Middle East.
“I actually thought the numbers would be worse,” Trump said last week as he met the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, in the Oval Office. “It’s not bad, and it’s going to be over with pretty soon.”
Will it, though? In the past week, the US has begun moving elements of elite units from around the world towards the Middle East to prepare for potential ground operations that would help the US wrest control of the strait of Hormuz from Iran.
On Wednesday, the Pentagon confirmed to the Guardian that elements of the 82nd airborne division’s headquarters, as well as the 1st brigade combat team, would be deploying to the Middle East. Those 2,000-odd paratroopers are tasked with being able to deploy worldwide within 18 hours of notification and execute a parachute assault, including against a “defended airfield” to prepare for further ground operations.
They join a deployment of the 31st marine expeditionary unit, which will bring about 2,200 marines onboard the USS Tripoli to the region later this week to prepare for potential ground operations against Kharg Island, the hub of Iran’s oil exports, as well as key bases or coastline that would let the US reopen the strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
But those operations are fraught with danger to US troops: Iran has warned that it will carpet-bomb its own territory to attack any US troops landing there, and the escalation would likely lead to a protracted ground conflict that could see the economic toll of the conflict escalate long beyond the White House’s initially predicted four to six weeks.
That buildup is taking place as Trump’s shadow diplomacy – being routed through third countries in the region such as Pakistan – is said to be picking up speed, with JD Vance, a top skeptic of military force, said to lead a negotiating team in Islamabad later this week.
But if and when talks eventually begin, the two sides will find their positions further apart than before the conflict, with the US emboldened by its destruction of Iran’s military and the decimation of Iran’s leadership during the first days of the war. A distrustful Iran, already wary that US diplomacy is a cover for military action, will believe that it got the better of Trump’s White House by remaining in the fight despite the vast disparity in military power.
With the US military poised for its next major escalation, Trump’s advisers have maintained that he is negotiating in good faith – but the past year has shown that military buildups rarely veer to the off-ramp. “Trump has a hand open for a deal and the other is a fist, waiting to punch you in the fucking face,” one Trump adviser told Axios.
