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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Larry Elliott

Trump or Harris? Whoever wins will face a shift in power in the global economy

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Americans go to the polls on Tuesday. Photograph: AP

It is November 1992 and the US is at the height of its power. Communism has been defeated. The Berlin Wall has been demolished. The Soviet Union has broken up and Russia is being used as the laboratory mouse for free-market shock treatment. Liberalisation of the Chinese economy offers the opportunity for US multinationals to outsource production. An era of American-dominated globalisation has dawned.

Two liberal internationalists – George HW Bush and Bill Clinton – are battling for the presidency. In the end, Clinton defeats Bush, the sitting Republican president, because the protectionist Ross Perot takes more votes from the Republicans than he does from the Democrats.

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