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Ballotpedia
Ballotpedia
Ellen Morrissey

Trump maintains lead in 2024 Republican presidential primary polling and PredictIt market

PredictIt Donald Trump Republican Joe Biden Ron DeSantis RCP RealClearPolitics Gavin Newsom

As of May 30, 2023, former President Donald Trump (R) leads in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.

Trump’s polling average currently stands at 53%, followed by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 22%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.59, and DeSantis’ share price is $0.33. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election took place today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.

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