What does the Middle East look like under Trump 2.0?
The president-elect is due to take office in just a few weeks, having frequently attacked Joe Biden — and later Kamala Harris — for supposedly having failed to stop the two bloody conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza from breaking out under their watch. On top of that, he also made two lofty promises while campaigning: that he would end the conflict in Ukraine quickly upon taking office; and that he would bring a “lasting peace” to the Middle East.
The latter promise was made during an interview with a Saudi news channel, Al-Arabiya, in October.
“I want to see the Middle East get back to peace. A real peace, one that’s going to be a lasting peace. And that’s going to happen. I have — I feel really, truly confident it’s going to happen,” said then-candidate Trump. He added that his election would be the key factor that made the difference.
During his first term in office, Trump’s foreign policy team notched a key victory towards that ideal, though obviously not one that prevented the region from descending into bloodshed last year. In 2020, the Trump administration engineered the signing of the Abraham Accords — a pair of agreements signaling the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and two of its Arab neighbors, the UAE and Bahrain.
But the war in Gaza put a halt to much of that progress.
“As long as Saudi Arabia is concerned... there will be no relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel without an independent Palestinian state, with its capital as East Jerusalem,” says Muhammad Al-Isa, secretary-general of the Muslim World League.
Ahead of Trump’s inauguration in January, leaders of many countries are preparing for significant shifts to the US’s global diplomatic stance. One of those countries is Saudi Arabia, which Biden famously vowed to make a “pariah” for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi before reversing course and pursuing a partnership.
Saudi Arabia, like a number of countries, was pursuing its own strengthening of ties with Israel before the October 7 attack. Indeed, in 2022, the country allowed Israeli civilian aircraft to utilize its airspace for the first time.
Al-Isa is the country’s most senior religious diplomat. He leads the Muslim World League, the largest Islamic humanitarian organization on the planet. Reportedly a close ally of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Al-Isa sat down with The Independent in Washington a day after hosting a Q&A at a gala with journalists and US policy leaders. During the event, he called for a ceasefire to be reached in Gaza along with the release of all hostages by Hamas and the Israeli government.
He made the argument that religious reconciliation and the guidance of faith leaders must be part of diplomatic normalization with Israel, as well as a two-state solution.
“This is our stance, and it’s a constant stance, always, that we can never give up on,” he says. “We can never discuss peace in the region, and normalization in the region, at all without believing in the two-state solution… Anyone who talks about normalization without the two-state solution, having a Palestinian state with its capital as East Jerusalem — they are wasting time.”
For the next few weeks, at least, the US government will remain publicly supportive of the establishment of a Palestinian state. That will almost certainly end in January.
Trump’s foreign policy selections indicate he is going in the opposite direction, possibly at the expense of future diplomatic gains in the Arab world. Marco Rubio, his pick for secretary of state, is a vocal opponent of a two-state solution. The Florida senator’s hawkish views caused his nomination to be a major disappointment for some “America First” hardliners who have accused him and others of seeking war with Iran.
Another Iran hawk who served in government during Trump’s first term was Sam Brownback, the former senator from Kansas who was the president-elect’s ambassador-at-large for religious freedom. He is rumored to be among those in the GOP foreign policy sphere under consideration for a similar role this cycle.
When asked about such issues, Brownback asked The Independent: “Why would the Israelis agree to an independent state... and why would that guarantee peace in the region [when] they [the Palestinian territories] don’t have the capacity to not become a terrorist state?”
Brownback was attending a briefing for Democratic and Republican senators held by an Iranian dissident resistance group, the NCRI, on Capitol Hill this week. The gathering featured senators on both sides of the aisle who favor a “maximum pressure” stance against Iran, which is likely to be re-adopted by the Trump White House in January.
The former ambassador warned that Israel was “never going to allow an independent state that can be so populated with terrorists right on their doorstep”, especially in the immediate wake of October 7.
“You could say your two-state solution already exists, and it’s Jordan,” said Brownback. “[But] the West Bank and Gaza have shown no ability to control terrorism in their own territory.”
Ted Cruz, who attended the briefing, said as he left for votes that achieving the total destruction of Hamas was the most important immediate step towards regional stability, one that took precedence over the Gaza peace process.
The signals are clear: the incoming Trump administration is poised to be wholly devoted to political and strategic military support for Israel, with the prospect of diplomacy around the Arab world being relegated to an afterthought. It could be seen as a rather grim outlook for the prospect of Palestinian statehood, and Saudi-Israeli relations by extension.
Al-Isa doesn’t think so, however.
“The incoming administration has opportunities… more than others, given its relationship [with the Israeli government],” he said. He argued that Netanyahu’s closeness to Trump would open the door for a President Trump to push the Israeli leader to lengths the current president never could.
“If the whole world is with the two-state solution, [and] then the current Israeli government comes and… rejects it, in front of the whole world, even the White House which is its strongest ally, then how can they justify this? Will this result in a good reputation [for Israel]?” he says.
Israel’s relationships with its allies — not just in the Middle East but on every continent — are now intrinsically tied to the question of how the war in Gaza ends. Government officials have said that Netanyahu plans the war to continue at least through 2024, and no plan for a drawing-down of operations has even been hinted at so far.
Part of the answer to that question lies in how long the US continues to fund Israel’s military offensive. Trump has shown no signs of opposing that support, but could face grumbling from his base if the price tag begins to climb too high — especially if economic conditions don’t improve at home.
