Trump loves cheap gas—but a military conflict in Iran could nearly double your price at the pump

Missiles produced by Iran's armed forces are displayed near a row of Iranian flags during commemorations to mark the anniversary of the 1979 Iranian Revolution on February 11, 2026 in Tehran, Iran. In that year, Ruhollah Khomeini led an overthrow of the Pahlavi dynasty in 1979 and established himself as Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. (Credit: Getty Images)

The largest U.S. military buildup since the 2003 Iraq invasion is aimed at Iran, and the outcome of a tense standoff could mean the average price at the pump falls to $2.50 per gallon or spikes astronomically to $5 in the case of war, geopolitical and energy analysts told Fortune.

The reason for the extreme range of potential impacts is the Strait of Hormuz offshore of Iran. The narrow, 104-mile strait is the main choke point separating the Persian Gulf—and the daily flow of nearly 20 million barrels of oil—from the Indian Ocean and global energy markets. Most of the crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates must pass through the strait.