As Donald Trump works out the final details of an admittedly fragile ceasefire with Iran — one that is currently threatening to upend the global economy as we know it — some unidentified individuals have been using “prediction markets” to consistently and accurately bet on the president’s next move. The fact that his son, Donald Trump Jr., just so happens to be a “strategic advisor” to one such company, Polymarket, has some people wondering whether this is the next frontier of insider trading.
The AP reports that a couple of Polymarket accounts were created on Tuesday morning, just as Trump was making cryptic remarks about how “a whole civilization will die.” Not many people knew what he meant at the time — the president himself later clarified that he was not planning a nuclear attack on Iran. As it turned out, the day ended with a ceasefire. Exactly as the anonymous Polymarket accounts had “predicted.”
