The Democratic Party's shrinking lead among Latino voters threatens Vice President Kamala Harris's chances in the 2024 presidential election. A recent NBC News poll shows that support for the Democrats is at its lowest point in four election cycles, with Latinos increasingly turning toward the Republican Party. According to journalist Paola Ramos, this shift can be attributed to internalised racism, conservative values, and a complex relationship with identity in the U.S.
Haiti and Anti-Blackness Within the Latino Community
One key issue affecting Latino voters is the deep-rooted anti-Blackness within the community, which has long been shaped by colonisation and colourism. In the most recent presidential debate, former President Donald Trump made inflammatory claims that Haitian migrants were "eating pets," including cats and dogs. Despite the derogatory nature of these remarks, it has not significantly altered Latino support for Trump.
Haiti, a country colonised by Christopher Columbus and technically part of the Latino world, is often dismissed by other Latino groups due to anti-Black prejudices. According to Ramos, Latinos—particularly those who are lighter-skinned or white-passing—sometimes use anti-Black attitudes to distance themselves from Black Latinos, such as Haitians. This is part of a broader issue where Latinos uphold U.S. patterns of anti-Black racism to improve their social standing. A 2022 Pew Research Center study found that 4 in 10 dark-skinned Latinos reported being discriminated against by fellow Latinos.
Maria Hinojosa, founder of Futuro Media, echoed this sentiment during an appearance on MSNBC, claiming that many Latinos "want to be white" to integrate more fully into U.S. society. It's not about changing their race but a desire to align with the perceived advantages of being part of the dominant group. By doing so, they distance themselves from the struggles faced by Black Latinos, which can include harsher treatment and stereotyping in American society.
Second-Generation Immigrants and Changing Identity
Second-generation Latinos or later in the U.S. tend to have a more nuanced relationship with their heritage. Many do not view themselves as immigrants despite their Latino roots. For example, "Tejanos," or Texans of Hispanic descent, often express this sentiment with the saying, "I didn't cross the border; the border crossed me." For these Latinos, immigration issues may not be as relevant when deciding how to vote.
This disconnection from the "immigrant" label, combined with a strong sense of identity tied to the U.S., can lead to voting patterns that differ from more recent Latino immigrants. Latinos who do not see themselves as racial minorities are more likely to vote on issues such as the economy, family values, and religion—topics that align with the Republican platform.
Conservatism and the Appeal of Trump's Republican Party
Conservatism has been a growing force within the Latino community, particularly among evangelical Protestants. The Pew Research Center reports that 28% of Hispanic Republicans identify as evangelical Protestants, with an estimated 10 million Latinos falling into this religious category. Religion plays a significant role in shaping their political views, and many have found a natural alignment with Trump's messaging, which often invokes Christian nationalism.
During the February National Convention of Religious Broadcasters, Trump declared, "We have to get our religion back. We have to get Christianity back in this country." This rhetoric resonates deeply with Latino evangelical voters, 55% of whom support Trump. For these voters, issues such as religious freedom, traditional family values, and the protection of Christian heritage are top priorities, and they view Trump as the candidate most aligned with these beliefs.
The influence of religion on Latino conservatism has been evident in movements such as Moms for Liberty, where Latina members have supported conservative policies like the "Don't Say Gay" bill. Additionally, Latino evangelical pastors and Hispanic border vigilantes have emerged as staunch supporters of Trump, further embedding conservative ideology in segments of the Latino population.
Latino Evangelicals Pray for Trump in Miami
According to Independent, a recent event in Miami underscored Trump's appeal among religious Latino voters. During a roundtable discussion with Latino community leaders, Trump was surrounded by supporters who laid their hands on him in prayer, asking for divine guidance in his re-election campaign. "God's hand is on this man," one pastor proclaimed as they prayed for Trump to help "make America godly again." The former president was also showered with religious gifts, including a piece of art featuring the Virgin Mary, presented by Mexican actor Eduardo Verástegui.
In addition to religious backing, the CEO of Goya Foods, Bob Unanue, blamed Kamala Harris for the issues at the U.S.-Mexico border during the event. He repeatedly mispronounced her name as "Que Mala"—Spanish for "so bad"—a term used by some Latino Trump supporters throughout the campaign.
The Numbers Behind the Shift
While Latino support for the Republican Party is not new, the numbers show a notable shift in recent years. High-profile Latino figures, such as Vicente Fernández, Ricky Martin, and Daddy Yankee, have historically supported Republican candidates, with Daddy Yankee endorsing John McCain in 2008. However, the current trend is more widespread.
A recent NBC News poll found that 54% of Latino voters support Kamala Harris, while 40% back Trump. While Harris still leads among Latino voters, the gap has significantly narrowed compared to the 2020 election, when Joe Biden secured 66% of the Hispanic vote. This drop in support for the Democrats could be a critical factor in determining the outcome of the 2024 election.
What It Could Mean for Harris and the Democratic Party
The loss of Latino voters could prove disastrous for Harris in her presidential bid. Latinos are the largest minority voting bloc in the U.S., and their votes are crucial in key battleground states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona. If the trend toward the Republican Party continues, Harris may struggle to secure the support needed to win these critical states.
Maria Hinojosa warned that if the Democratic Party cannot reverse this trend, it could cost Harris the election. The growing influence of conservative values and internalised racism within the Latino community presents a significant challenge for the Democrats, who have traditionally relied on strong Latino support to win elections.
