In the midst of a bustling campaign season, Rhonda Santis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Asa Hutchinson continue to hold campaign events in Iowa, while Nikki Haley is forced to cancel all in-person events due to blizzard warnings. Meanwhile, the Republican frontrunner, Donald Trump, plans to return to the campaign trail this weekend with a series of rallies. As the candidates make their final appeals to caucus-goers, one voting block is on everyone's mind – Iowa's evangelical voters.
A recent poll conducted in Des Moines, Iowa, has revealed that Trump is leading the pack among evangelical voters. This group holds significant sway in Iowa's Republican base and has historically played a pivotal role in the caucuses. It is noteworthy that Trump has gained considerable support among evangelical voters since the 2016 election, despite some controversial personal behavior that may not align with church values.
Ralph Reed, the founder of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, provides some insights into this shift. He believes that there has been a significant change since Trump's first run in 2015 and 2016. Back then, skepticism and a lack of trust surrounded Trump's candidacy. In 2016, Ted Cruz secured roughly one-third of the evangelical vote, while Trump garnered just over 20%. Fast forward to the present, and Trump now commands 51% of the evangelical vote, with Rhonda Santis earning 26% and Nikki Haley trailing at 14%.
Reed attributes this shift primarily to Trump's current status as a quasi-incumbent. His record on key issues such as the sanctity of life, support for the State of Israel, Supreme Court appointments, and religious freedom has swayed evangelical voters in his favor. As such, other candidates face a challenge in making their case to this crucial voting bloc.
Regarding the issue of abortion, which holds immense importance for evangelicals, it is interesting to note that Ron DeSantis has been highlighting his strong stance on this matter in an effort to differentiate himself from Trump. However, this strategy does not appear to be significantly impacting the polls. Whether this issue is critical for DeSantis remains to be seen, but his success in Iowa may hinge on securing a healthy second-place finish, rather than settling for third.
Reed emphasizes that while Trump's dominance among evangelical voters presents a challenging landscape for other candidates, the caucus results are yet to be determined. He cautions against making predictions and highlights the twists and turns that are still likely to unfold.
As the campaigns enter the final stretch leading up to the Iowa caucuses, the attention and focus remain on Iowa's evangelical voters. Trump's strong performance among this group has created a steep uphill battle for his competitors, but the unpredictable nature of politics ensures that anything can happen.
