JERUSALEM — Here's one of the most maddening aspects of the mindless leak of hundreds of classified documents by a group of young men and boys playing online war games: It may help Russia to emerge the winner in Ukraine, unless the United States takes critical action to prevent that — right now.
Of course, the most maddening aspect is that a 21-year-old Air National Guardsman and racist gun collector could obtain highly classified documents, and post them to the 20 gamers in a group called Thug Shaker Central, just to show off to his pals. How can any close ally feel safe sharing secrets with a Pentagon that seems to have learned little about plugging leaks since the troves released by Chelsea Manning and Edward Snowden?
But when it comes to Ukraine, the documents — some of which were dated as recently as February — provide a bleak Pentagon assessment of how much territory Kyiv can regain in its much-awaited spring counteroffensive. They suggest that without a major influx of munitions, the Ukrainian air defense system might collapse, permitting the Russians to unleash their massive air force, which they have held back for fear of shootdowns.
Moscow may or may not have been aware of Ukraine's weakened air defenses. But the release of this downbeat Pentagon analysis hurts Ukrainian morale at a critical moment. It will surely encourage Vladimir Putin in his belief that he can outlast the Ukrainian military. And it fuels critics who insist — with stunning ignorance of Putin's behavior — that now is the time for negotiations.
Worst of all, these documents tell Putin that the Pentagon is dubious about prospects for Ukrainian success — for totally wrongheaded reasons — and is still unready to make that success possible. They reveal more about the weakness of the Pentagon's strategic thinking than Ukraine's.
For months, Gen. Mark Milley has been urging the Ukrainians to consider negotiation. In November, he contended that "a military victory ... is maybe not achievable and therefore you need to turn to other means."
In that vein, one of the documents, labeled "top secret," contends that the long-awaited counteroffensive will likely result in only "modest territorial gains." Another, dated Feb. 22, said the Ukrainians were "headed towards a stalemate" in taking back the eastern Donbas region. Yet another predicts that the battles will continue into 2024.
Nowhere in these documents is there a sense of urgency in helping Ukraine defeat the Russians by ramping up U.S. or European defense production with the immediacy that would occur if Russia had attacked a NATO member.
Nowhere is there an appreciation that a stalemate entirely benefits Russia, since Putin cares not how many men or how much material he loses. A stalemate provides the possibility for the Kremlin to "win" this war.
If Putin bleeds Ukraine to death, even if he doesn't occupy the entire country, he wins. He will be perfectly content to leave Ukraine a bleeding basket case, its ports either literally or effectively controlled by Russia, destroying its export economy. He could then afford to wait until Europe tired of subsidizing the country, with the expectation that a desperate Ukraine would ultimately fall into his hands.
And nowhere do the documents show any recognition that such a Kremlin "win" would totally upend future security for the United States and Europe. If the West permits Putin to destroy Ukraine, China will understand that it can retake Taiwan by force, and dominate the Pacific. The new world order of aggressive authoritarians will be in full flower.
Yet these documents contain no hint that the Pentagon recognizes it needn't accept a stalemate. Rather, the assumption seems to be that, as in World War II, the Ukrainian army must drive out every Russian soldier via land battles in order to regain its land.
However, the Ukrainian military does not need to take back every inch via ground fighting. It does, however, need to trap the Russian military into an untenable position where it has no option but to retreat.
The U.S. holds the key. It can deliver a key weapons system that can be moved quickly — the long-range munitions known as ATACMS — that can help Ukraine's counteroffensive succeed.
With ATACMS, the Ukrainians could put the Russian-occupied Crimea under range of their missiles. Russia has turned the Crimean peninsula into a huge armed camp, and home to its Black Sea fleet, from which it fires endless missiles into Ukrainian cities and can move man power. Crimean bases and ships dominate the entire Ukrainian coastline.
The Ukrainian military does not need to "invade" Crimea, as many geographically challenged critics claim, but merely to render Russian supply lines to the peninsula inoperable and its occupation untenable. At that point, the Russians would have no choice but to evacuate the jewel in Putin's occupation crown — or else to bargain seriously with Kyiv. End of stalemate.
And yet, there was no hint in the leaked documents of reversing the U.S. refusal to deliver Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which could be delivered to Ukraine much more quickly than tanks or antiaircraft systems.
I totally agree with the brilliant analysis by Andrew Michta, an Atlantic Council fellow who writes: "One of the reasons this war is still ongoing is the West's extreme caution when it comes to resourcing the Ukrainian military with the weapons and munitions it needs to break through enemy lines and render the Russian army combat ineffective.
"The West has given Ukraine enough to survive, but not enough to win."
If one positive outcome could emerge from the leakage of these documents, it would be to shake up the idea of accepting a stalemate.
The time for excuses about Putin's red lines are over. The Kremlin leader has made clear he recognizes that he can't use tactical nukes against Ukraine, which would harm Moscow more than Kyiv and infuriate Big Brother China.
So if Ukraine is short of air defenses, "hit them left of launch," tweeted retired Army Gen. Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe — referring to the strategy of destroying a missile's launcher before it has a chance to be fired.
Ukraine has proven it can break Russian forces by using innovate operations. Give them ATACMS, Hodges continued, the long-range strike "capability to deny sanctuary in Crimea for Russian Navy, Air Force who are launching missiles and drones ... against Ukrainian civilians. Make Crimea untenable."
Prove to Putin the leaked documents on Ukraine are just a lot of outdated guff.
