A powerful combination of atmospheric systems has turned much of southern and southeastern Mexico into a rain zone this week. Tropical Waves 8 and 9, interacting with low-pressure channels, cyclonic circulations and warm moisture flowing in from both the Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico, are generating heavy to torrential rainfall across at least 22 states — and authorities are urging millions of residents to take the threat seriously.
The South Takes the Worst of It
Chiapas is bearing the brunt. Today's official forecast places its center, east and south under the most extreme rainfall category in the country — accumulations between 75 and 150 millimeters, enough to overwhelm drainage infrastructure, flood low-lying communities and trigger landslides on mountainous terrain. Lightning and hail are also on the table.
Oaxaca and Guerrero are close behind. The state's eastern and southwestern zones are seeing rainfall in the 50-to-75-millimeter range, while Guerrero's center and east face similar conditions with active electrical storm cells. In Oaxaca, those accumulations come on top of weeks of saturated ground — a combination that makes landslides far more likely even from moderate rain.
In Veracruz, the danger isn't just coming from above. Strong southerly winds of 20 to 35 km/h with gusts reaching 70 km/h are battering the Gulf coast, complicating conditions for coastal navigation and putting low-lying riverside communities at risk of flooding. The state's central and southern regions are also inside the most intense rainfall band on today's national map.
Yucatán Isn't Sitting This One Out
The peninsula has been in Wave 9's path since the weekend. Swells of one to two meters are expected along Yucatán's coast, and wind gusts of up to 60 km/h could knock down trees and damage structures. Showers are forecast to continue through the coming days, particularly in the western part of the state.
Mexico City: Expect a Rough Afternoon
The capital isn't in the eye of the storm, but residents shouldn't tune out. The State of México faces heavy rainfall mainly in the western zone, with risk of waterlogging, flooding and landslides, while CDMX is forecast to see intense storm showers during the afternoon and evening hours, accompanied by lightning and possible hail. A tenth tropical wave is now approaching from the south, meaning the pattern is unlikely to break anytime soon.
What Civil Protection Is Asking You to Do
The National Civil Protection Coordination has activated preventive operations across the hardest-hit states, with military units, heavy machinery and temporary shelters pre-positioned in vulnerable communities. Here's what they're asking everyone — wherever you are — to keep in mind:
- Stay safe during heavy rain
- Follow all directions from your local Civil Protection unit — their alerts are real-time and location-specific.
- Stay away from rivers, streams, ravines and any fast-moving water — even if they look manageable, currents change fast.
- Avoid hillsides and unstable terrain prone to landslides, especially after days of accumulated rainfall.
- Slow down while driving, turn your lights on, and keep a safe distance from other vehicles — wet pavement and reduced visibility are a dangerous combination.
- Don't throw trash or pour grease down the drain. Clogged drains are one of the main reasons streets flood — and that's a problem residents can actually prevent.
- Keep the storm drains near your home clear of leaves and debris, especially before the afternoon downpours begin.
Do not cross flooded streets — on foot or by vehicle. Urban runoff during severe storms can generate enough force to sweep away a car. If you encounter standing water on a road, turn around.
For official updates in real time, the SMN's general meteorological forecast is updated daily and covers all states. Your state's Civil Protection agency will issue more specific local warnings as conditions evolve.
