Florida residents should prepare for the possibility of at least a tropical storm this week, with forecasters saying that watches could be issued for the state as early as Monday.
The culprit is an area of low pressure about 300 miles north of Puerto Rico that was producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Forecasters started calling it Invest 98L.
“This system is forecast to move generally northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic where environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form in the next day or so,” the National Hurricane Center said in its 7 p.m. tropical weather update Sunday.
“The system is then forecast to turn westward or west-southwestward over the southwestern Atlantic by the middle part of this week where additional development is possible.”
The hurricane center set odds at 80% that the system develops in the next 48 hours and 90% for development in the next five days.
Various weather models forecast the system possibly making landfall on Florida’s east coast later this week, but there is disagreement on the storm’s intensity — whether it could be a tropical/subtropical storm or even possibly a hurricane.
Regardless of how strong the storm could be, the NHC said there is an increasing risk of coastal flooding, tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, rough surf and beach erosion along Florida’s east coast and much of the southeastern United States coast this week.
“Interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm, hurricane, and storm surge watches could be required for a portion of these areas by early Monday,” the hurricane center said.
State officials have been following the NHC updates and Sunday urged residents to pay attention to the weather system.
“Floridians should prepare for an increased risk of coastal flooding, heavy winds, rain, rip currents & beach erosion as early as Tuesday,” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis tweeted.
Similarly, the Florida Division of Emergency Management tweeted that although the system’s path is still uncertain, residents on the state’s east coast should prepare emergency supply kits for at least seven days.
“It’s looking like we will get deteriorating conditions as we go through the workweek,” National Weather Service forecaster John Pendergrast in Melbourne said. “Deteriorating conditions for Central Florida are going to mostly start around Tuesday and late Tuesday and then persist until Thursday.”
The two Central Florida areas of most concern are for residents living near the St. Johns River and other low-lying areas near rivers and beaches that will experience erosion, Pendergrast said. He said forecasters predict river levels to rise slightly or stay the same depending on the amount of rain which is currently projected to be between 3-4 inches.
Election day on Tuesday shouldn’t be impacted by rainfall, Pendergrast said.
“It looks like the actual direct effects from the system aren’t going to be manifesting itself until after Tuesday,” he said.
Meanwhile, NHC forecasters said they are also monitoring another area of low pressure several hundred miles east of Bermuda, saying a tropical storm could form in that area in the next couple of days. That system is not expected to impact Florida.
Last week saw the formation of the season’s sixth and seventh hurricanes with Hurricane Lisa striking Belize on Thursday morning and Hurricane Martin, which became extratropical in the north Atlantic by Thursday afternoon.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30. The season’s 14 named systems through Martin have now met the NOAA forecast for 2022.
NOAA predicted 2022 to be an above-average season with 14 to 21 named tropical storms. This follows 2020′s record 30 named systems and 2021′s 21 named storms.
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