MIAMI — Tropical Storm Nicole, on the cusp of strengthening into a Category 1 hurricane possibly within hours, made landfall in the Bahamas Wednesday morning and remained on track to slam much of Florida with pounding surf, high winds and heavy rain.
Forecasters said a second landfall was expected in the overnight hours near the Palm Beach-Martin County border, though that could still change. Regardless of where the center crosses the state, the sprawling storm’s wind field continued to grow overnight high winds and heavy rains will be felt hundreds of miles away — with the worst conditions likely on its northern side.
By 9 a.m., Lake Worth Pier was already reporting sustained tropical storm-force winds of 44 mph, hours before the center of Nicole is due ashore. Flooding could be seen from Miami north, as storm surge splashed across the Hollywood Broadwalk, overtopped seawalls in Sewalls Point and soaked streets in Palm Beach. Several thousand customers were already without power by mid-morning.
“The impacts from Nicole are starting right now,” said Michael Brennan, acting deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, in a Wednesday morning broadcast.
The National Hurricane Center zeroed in on the potential danger zone for Nicole Wednesday afternoon, lifting the tropical storm watch for Miami-Dade County as it became more clear the bigger impacts would be felt to the north.
Many coastal and inland counties, including Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach, had already ordered school closures for Wednesday.
With storm surge and beach erosion the biggest threat, mandatory or voluntary evacuations also had been called for tens of thousands of along the coast, from Palm Beach north to Volusia County. Theme parks are closed, drawbridges are locked and Orlando’s International Airport plans to shut down later in the day as the storm draws near.
While Nicole is likely to prove damaging and spark widespread power outages, forecasters aren’t expecting it to get much stronger before it sweeps across the peninsula. It is set to cross some warm ocean waters as it moves through the northern Bahamas but forecasters said wind shear and other less friendly conditions will likely keep the storm in check and near Category 1 status.
Still, Florida faces tropical storm-force winds that will reach much of the state, several inches of soaking rain and coastal flooding for most of the coast from multiple feet of storm surge — an elevated threat for counties like Brevard and Volusia that already lost protective beach sand from Hurricane Ian.
That threat became reality early Wednesday, as at least one beachfront pool deck of a Daytona Beach Shores condominium was swallowed by the sea and officials closed multiple oceanfront roads in Vero Beach, Fort Pierce and Stuart.
Brennan, with the hurricane center, pointed said the storm’s wind field stretched more than 450 miles from the center, largely to the north.
“We’re very concerned about storm surge with Nicole with that large wind field,” he said. “That’s only going to get worse as we go through today and into the night cycle.”
State, federal government ready
White House officials told the Miami Herald that President Joe Biden was briefed on the incoming storm Wednesday morning, after signing an emergency declaration for Florida overnight at the state government’s request.
“FEMA is closely monitoring the storm system and its potential impact on Florida, federal tribes and the Southeastern states,” said Jeremy Edwards, press secretary for FEMA.
“We also know that some areas in Florida remain vulnerable due to the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, and we stand ready to help those who may be impacted by Nicole prepare, while continuing to support those recovering from Ian,” Edwards said.
In a Wednesday morning news conference, Florida Gov Ron DeSantis said there were 16,000 line workers ready to respond as soon as conditions are safe, but residents should still prepare for power outages.
“Winds are the main concern with Nicole,” he said. “It will affect huge parts of the state of Florida pretty much all day Thursday.”
A ‘direct hit’ for the Bahamas
Nicole made landfall in Great Abaco Island just before noon Wednesday as a tropical storm, the same spot where Category 5 Hurricane Dorian struck with a vengeance in 2019, leveling much of the community of Marsh Harbour.
Nicole is expected to be a far weaker storm, with 75 mph sustained winds instead of 185 mph, but residents are still prepared to see damage.
“Abaco and Grand Bahama are going to be a direct hit,” Carl Smith, permanent secretary of the disaster preparedness office, said. Residents on Abaco are expected up to 6 inches of rain and 6 feet of storm surge, and flooding was already being reported in certain areas like Green Turtle Cay.
Eleuthera and New Providence, where the capital of Nassau is located, appear to have been given “some reprieve,” Smith said, but he reported flooding already on the west coast of the island.
Authorities are reporting localized flooding in some communities with 8 to 10 inches of rainfall and power outages. In most cases, the power has been intentionally shut down after winds picked up. Bimini went on an islandwide shutdown at 9:35 am.
Residents were warned to stay off roads, which are unsafe and blocked on some islands. Storm surge had reached the eastern coastline and Cayes, slowing down emergency crews ready to respond or restore power.
What to expect in Florida
In its latest 1 p.m. EST update, the National Hurricane Center said the storm was about 10 miles west of Marsh Harbour in the Bahamas and 175 miles east of West Palm Beach. Its maximum sustained winds had risen to 70 mph and it was headed west at 12 mph.
As Nicole rolls west, most of Florida will see storm surge from Nicole, with a peak of 3 to 5 feet above dry ground for the northeast coast of the state. Coastal Palm Beach and Broward could see 2 to 4 feet, and Miami-Dade could see 1 to 2 feet.
This surge comes on the tail end of a king tide event, one of the highest annual tides.
The west coast is also due for several feet of surge as the storm zigzags its way inland before turning north, where it’s expected to cross through Georgia and follow the coast until it dissipates.
While Nicole will douse the state with several inches of rain, it’s not expected to be a dramatic rainmaker like Hurricane Ian. That’s because the storm is set to zip around the state at 15 mph, a speedy clip for a storm that prevents it from spending too much time over land and dropping too much rain.
The east central Florida area appears in for the most rain at around 6 inches, but South Florida could see up to 4 inches in Broward County and around 2 inches in Miami-Dade, according to the hurricane center.
So far, power outages across the state were spotty, with only about 10,000 customers without electricity out of Florida Power & Light’s 4 million customers in affected counties.
FP&L Spokesman Jack Eble said customers can expect the numbers to increase as Nicole’s massive wind field makes its way to Florida. He said the utility has 13,000 workers ready at 11 staging areas across the state. While Eble wouldn’t go as far as saying it was about an average day for FP&L — so far — he did say, the numbers were “quite low at this time.”
“We’re ready to respond to customers as the storm approaches,” he said.
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(Miami Herald staff writers Jacqueline Charles and Charles Rabin and McClatchy White House correspondent Michael Wilner contributed to this report.)
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