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International Business Times UK
International Business Times UK
World
Michael Toledo

Tropical Storm Erin Hurricane Twist: Spaghetti Models Hint at a Surprise Track Change

Coconut tree on a stormy weather (Credit: Suparerg Suksai/Pexels)

Tropical Storm Erin, the fifth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, is drawing increased attention after the latest spaghetti models revealed a split in possible future tracks. As of 5 p.m. AST on Monday, 11 August, Erin was located about 430 miles west-northwest of Cabo Verde, moving west at around 21 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Central pressure was estimated at 1004 mb. Forecasters expect Erin to strengthen into a hurricane later this week as it continues across the central tropical Atlantic.

The NHC's latest advisory confirms no coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect. The storm remains well east of the Lesser Antilles, with its nearest point of approach still several days away. Forecast models suggest gradual intensification, potentially making Erin the season's first hurricane by Thursday. If strengthening continues as projected, Erin could reach category 2 strength over open waters by the weekend.

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