FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Parts of Texas and Mexico remain under tropical storm warnings Saturday even though chances for a system in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico to make landfall as a tropical storm are decreasing, forecasters said.
And a tropical wave that recently moved off Africa’s west coast is being given a 20% chance of developing in the next five days.
The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone Four on Friday afternoon.
The next named storm will be Danielle.
However, the system in the Gulf of Mexico [Potential Tropical Cyclone Four] might not earn a name.
“The chances of this system becoming a tropical storm continue to decrease as the trough is expected to move inland this evening,” the NHC said. “Even though the system will probably fall short of becoming a tropical cyclone, the expected impacts are unchanged as heavy rains and winds to tropical storm force, especially in gusts, are expected to spread across northeastern Mexico and southern Texas during the next several hours.
“After landfall, the disturbance is expected to weaken and dissipate on Sunday.”
As of 5 p.m. Saturday, the system was located 105 miles south of the Rio Grande River and moving northwest at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The disturbance has a 40% chance of developing, down from a 70% chance Saturday morning.
Regardless of whether the system develops it could deliver much-needed rain to south Texas. Forecasters expect the region to see between 1 to 3 inches of rain with higher amounts in some far southern parts of the state.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect on the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to the mouth of the Rio Grande.
The tropical wave that rolled off the African coast is forecast to move west-northwest to northwest at 15 to 20 mph during the early and middle part of next week. Forecasters say conditions are “marginally conducive” for further development.
The most active part of hurricane season is from now, mid-August, until the end of October.
The last Atlantic hurricane was Sam, which became a hurricane Sept. 24 and maintained that status until Oct. 5 as it cut a path between the United States and Bermuda.
There have been three named storms so far this season — Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Alex made its presence known in South Florida by dumping as much as 12 inches of rain in some areas.
The 47-day gap (July 3 through Aug. 19) represents the third-longest span between named storms in an Atlantic hurricane season.
The record drought was 61 days, from June 18 through Aug. 18 in 1999. However, that two-month run of inactivity was followed by a conclusion of the hurricane season that featured five Category 4 storms (Bret, Cindy, Floyd, Gert and Lenny) and the drenching Category 2 Irene, which achieved a rarity, with its eye passing over Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in mid-October.
This current stretch represents the latest in the year a drought of at least that length has stretched to (in 2002, there was a 59-day dry run that went from June 2 to July 31).
Forecasters say dry air, Saharan dust and wind shear have been among the reasons there haven’t been more storms this year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its updated hurricane season predictions earlier this month.
NOAA predicts 14 to 20 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes with three to five being major, meaning Category 3 or higher.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
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