The escalation of the US-Israel and Iran conflict has plunged the tourism industry in the Middle East and the Gulf into turmoil.
Governments have issued ‘no-go’ warnings or advice against all but essential travel for countries including Israel, the UAE and Qatar, and a wide corridor of airspace remains closed in the region.
Travellers currently in tourism hotspots like Dubai and Doha are scrambling to get home on the limited number of rescue flights now being operated.
On Monday, US President Donald Trump said the campaign in Iran had been projected to last four to five weeks but could “go far longer than that”.
For the tourism industry in the Middle East, the fallout is projected to be acute.
Middle East tourist numbers could drop by 30 million
The rising tensions look set to stifle what had recently been a significant tourism upsurge in the Middle East and the Gulf – but whether temporarily or permanently remains to be seen.
Ibrahim Khaled is the head of marketing for the Middle East Travel Alliance, a B2B company working with international tour operators and travel agents in the region.
“We've been seeing steady [visitor] growth year over year, especially with all the new tourism investments happening across the region,” he tells Euronews Travel.
“Saudi Arabia is currently at about 10%, but it's growing incredibly fast since they opened up to leisure tourism in 2019. It's definitely our most exciting up-and-coming destination.”
The weekend’s events have halted that growth in its tracks.
“For places that the US and UK governments have put on no-go or no-fly lists, we've unfortunately seen a ton of cancellations,” Khaled says. “Flights are disrupted, and trips to those specific areas are pretty much on hold.”
A new report by Tourism Economics has released projections for the impact of the war on regional tourism, which tally with the travel alliance’s outlook.
“We estimate inbound arrivals to the Middle East could decline 11%-27% year on year in 2026 due to the conflict, compared to our December forecast that projected 13% growth,” said Director of Global Forecasting Helen McDermott and Senior Economist Jessie Smith.
“In absolute terms, this would mean a range of 23-38 million fewer international visitors compared to our baseline / previous forecast, and $34bn-$56bn (€29bn-€48bn) loss in visitor spend. This includes expected lingering sentiment impacts beyond the immediate conflict period.”
They added that the impact on tourism demand of this conflict will be larger than that of the conflict last year.
This is due in large part to the retaliatory strike from Iran on neighbouring GCC countries, which are more established tourism destinations, as well as the wider airspace closures across the region than last year.
GCC countries will be worst hit
Tourism Economics projects that GCC countries will see the largest losses in volume terms, “as they are the largest destinations in the region which have previously relied on perceptions of safety and stability”, McDermott and Smith said.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia are particularly vulnerable due to large international visitor volumes and a heavy reliance on air connectivity. Air transport is more significantly impacted by poorer sentiment than land transport options, the group said in their report.
In comparison, Qatar and Bahrain see land arrivals accounting for 32% and 74% of total arrivals, so they are proportionally less impacted.
“Given the widespread retaliatory strikes by Iran over the weekend, sentiment effects are likely to be more widely spread across GCC countries,” the report said.
Tourism Economics also highlighted the Middle East’s role as a global transit hub, with its airports accounting for around 14% of international transit activity.
This will inevitably lead to knock-on impacts outside of the region, according to the group. The current disruption will affect travel flows, which typically transit through the Middle East hubs, including major routes between Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.
A resilient region
Despite the gravity of the current situation, tourism industry experts say the long-term effects may not be so drastic.
“We aren't worried about the long-term impact on the company or tourism in the region. The Middle East has always been an incredibly resilient market, and demand always bounces back fast once stability returns,” says Khaled.
Gloria Guevara, President and CEO of the World Travel & Tourism Council, echoed his sentiment. "Travel & Tourism has consistently demonstrated its resilience in the face of global challenges,” she said in a statement.
“As a vital force for connection, economic stability and mutual understanding, the sector continues to adapt and respond responsibly during periods of uncertainty.”
