The 49ers unloaded a pair of future first-round picks and a future third-round pick to secure the No. 3 overall pick from the Dolphins and select quarterback Trey Lance. Their 2022 first-round choice came in at No. 29 overall after their NFC championship game loss to the Rams.
Their 2022 third-round choice is the conditional pick they got for Robert Saleh going to the Jets as a head coach. Its placement hasn’t been determined yet. They’ll also part with their 2023 first-round pick.
Ultimately the value of the trade will come down to how Lance develops. There’s not really a price in the modern NFL for getting a franchise quarterback. If he has them in contention every year the trade will have been worth it no matter where those picks landed. However, the first one landing at No. 29 means the 49ers are on track to get some potentially incredible value from the move up from No. 12 to 3 in 2021.
If Lance plays well in his first year as a starter in 2022, San Francisco could find themselves picking in the mid-20s or later again. Two late first-round picks and a conditional third is not a bad price to pay for a potential franchise signal caller.
Such a late pick also underscores why the 49ers made the move up in 2021. They had the firepower to get from No. 12 to No. 3. It wouldn’t have been as easy to get from No. 29 up to a place where they could comfortably draft whichever quarterback they wanted. Not to mention early returns on this year’s QB class aren’t great.
Disaster is still on the table, of course. Lance could prove to not be an NFL starter and then there’s no real justifying the trade no matter how late the picks are.
With the book on the 2021 season closing though, the 49ers are in a very good spot to make their pre-draft trade up for a quarterback look like a very savvy, valuable, franchise-altering move.
