Trevor Lawrence is going through it right now.
The former No. 1 pick’s career has been defined, thus far, by collapse. There was whatever the hell was going on as a rookie, which could be explained away (validly) by the presence of human canker sore Urban Meyer on the sideline. Then there was 2022’s rise, punctuated by his ability to make the Los Angeles Chargers fold after a 27-0 lead en route to a Wild Card win in Jacksonville.
2023 has swung the pendulum back in the opposite direction. After beginning the season 8-3, his Jaguars have crashed back to 8-7. Their playoff position has only been buoyed by the awfulness of the injury-riddled AFC South around them. Lawrence hasn’t been immune to that; his four-game losing streak saw him suffer an ankle sprain and wind up in the league’s concussion protocol leading up to Week 16.
Then, however … eesh.
What a game from the @Buccaneers' defense!
📺: #JAXvsTB on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/UIg1XAk0MB pic.twitter.com/fbCEayC3Tn— NFL (@NFL) December 24, 2023
Lawrence’s turnover woes continued in Tampa, where he threw two interceptions and fumbled once while falling behind 30-0. He eventually recovered for a touchdown toss to Calvin Ridley that only mattered for fantasy managers. He was then was yanked for CJ Beathard — partially due to a shoulder injury, partially due to a hopeless game — that only further endangers his finish to 2023.
Lawrence was bad. Was he Sunday’s most disappointing quarterback?
Fortunately, we’ve got tools to better understand just how damaging each underwhelming performances was. Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player.
By comparing each passer’s Week 16 EPA against their 2023 adjusted average, we get a better picture of just how frustrating their days were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com. So let’s take a look at who disappointed the most in the 16th Sunday of the 2023 season.
4
Gardner Minshew, Indianapolis Colts
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.2
Week 15 EPA: -4
Difference: 5.2 points worse
Minshew has been a solid, pleasant surprise in Indiana. He was originally meant to be a steady veteran presence and potential spot starter ahead of rookie Anthony Richardson. When Richardson left two of his first four games early due to injury and then was ruled out for the year after Week 4, he was thrust back into the spotlight and provided above-average quarterback play for a team that snuck into a crowded playoff field in the AFC.
But when the Colts needed someone to lift them up in a winnable game against the perpetually disheveled Atlanta Falcons, Minshew couldn’t be that guy. It wasn’t that he was bad, it’s just that he wasn’t special.
That chart doesn’t look great, but it’s not bad. Even his one interception wasn’t terrible. It was third-and-long with his team down 14 points late. Of course he’s gonna take a risk deep:
He is Hiiim!!!#ProBowlVote x @jlbiii3
📺 FOX | NFL+ pic.twitter.com/XIXsvcrwTB— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) December 24, 2023
But that’s Minshew; he’s the guy who can play well enough to keep you on schedule but won’t be regularly special to bring you back in big situations. He’s still valuable, but he’s probably not going to lead you to a dramatic playoff win. Still, just getting the Colts into a spot where a postseason bid is a coin toss in Week 16 (they have 52 percent playoff odds, per the New York Times) is worth celebrating.
3
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 5.7
Week 15 EPA: -2.4
Difference: 8.1 points worse
Over his last three games, all Jaguars losses, Lawrence has five touchdowns and eight turnovers. This is a team whose success relies on its quarterback making plays, and a not-100-percent Lawrence has taken that to heart, doing way too much and making his team worse in the process. Here he tries to sling the ball to a well covered Evan Engram on second down and not only misses his tight window but misses high, sailing a pass into the hands of Tampa Bay safety Antoine Winfield.
A lot of picks this holiday season 🎁🙌
📺: #JAXvsTB on CBS
🗳️: #ProBowlVote @AntoineWJr11 pic.twitter.com/xOLQ6a6cay— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 24, 2023
Seven plays later, the Buccaneers had a 20-0 lead and this game was effectively over. Lawrence’s EPA dropped to -8.2 in the third quarter before he rebounded in what was effectively garbage time against a Tampa Bay team halfway into next week. He was relieved by CJ Beathard in the fourth quarter of a futile effort having attempted 12 passes that traveled at least 12 yards downfield. He was four of 12 on those throws with one touchdown (good!) but two interceptions (bad!)
Lawrence is putting the weight of the team on his shoulders, but his base is beaten up and he can’t complete the lift. Jacksonville has been wildly fortunate the rest of the AFC South has been struck down by injury. That leaves time to course correct, but it can’t happen if Lawrence is playing at 80 percent of his capacity. The Jaguars need their quarterback at 100 percent, or else he’ll have another year ruled by collapse.
2
Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 8.0
Week 15 EPA: -7.7
Difference: 15.7 points worse
Browning was always living on borrowed time as a backup with few reps to show for five years of bouncing across NFL depth charts. He’d excelled behind an offense loaded with playmakers, but Ja’Marr Chase’s absence robbed Cincinnati of a diverse route tree that keeps opponents from locking into any one stable defense. With his targets limited, Browning was forced to throw into a compressed secondary that made him pay whenever he tested the deeper limits of his offense:
Browning had three times as many interceptions as completions when it came to throws that traveled at least 15 yards downfield. He got to 335 yards, but only because he had to throw a ton in a game his Bengals trailed 24-0 at the half. He attempted to make fifth round rookie Andrei Iosivas a viable fill-in for Chase with a diverse array of routes, but the Princeton All-American heptathalete caught only four of eight targets for 36 yards.
In some cases, Iosivas struggled to get open. In others, Browning failed to put the ball where he could thrive. At Saturday’s worst, it was both.
We’ll take that 😏 #ProBowlVote Alex Highsmith
📲: Stream on NFL+pic.twitter.com/BDGuX1urOE
— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) December 24, 2023
This all led to an inevitable crash. Cincinnati’s playoff probability dropped to 11 percent with the loss, but Browning has still proven he can be a viable backup in the NFL. In a season where Joe Burrow was only JOE BURROW for roughly two months, that’s a useful silver lining.
1
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.2
Week 15 EPA: -21.8
Difference: 23 points worse
Howell was given a full season to prove he could be new Commanders owner Josh Harris’s quarterback of the future. He has not. Over the last two weeks he’s been benched after falling behind and throwing absolute dog rocket interceptions.
That’s bad. What’s worse is he keeps getting absolutely and thoroughly outplayed by his backup, the well regarded journeyman Jacoby Brissett.
Sam Howell, Weeks 15 and 16: -34 expected points added (EPA), 17-48 passing, one touchdown, three interceptions, 3.3 yards per attempt
Jacoby Brissett, Weeks 15 and 16: 22.3 EPA, 18-23, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, 9.7 yards per attempt
Brissett isn’t that good. But it’s worth considering Howell *may* be that bad. His 2023 has been defined in Blake Bortles terms, leading to big yardage totals in losing efforts and little to suggest lasting efficiency. It’s been five games since he’s posted a passer rating higher than 74.1 and three since he’s topped 51.0. Those are all terrible numbers and there’s no obvious fix. Keeping him in the pocket leads to disaster. Running him through play-action leads to disaster. Rolling him out? Leads to disaster.
We'll take that! @Iwill_suceed20 with the INT!#WASvsNYJ on CBS pic.twitter.com/qmlMkiKD9F
— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 24, 2023
The good news is Brissett looks great. The better news is he hasn’t done enough to win in either of the last two weeks, increasing Washington’s odds to last a franchise quarterback in next spring’s draft. The Commanders will be back in the QB market next season, and while Brissett could be a candidate to return it seems like Howell will be shunted to the bench for whomever the team acquires — in the draft or free agency — next offseason.
