Trevor Lawrence played Sunday vs. the Cleveland Browns. Maybe he shouldn’t have.
While the high ankle sprain that ended his night in Week 13 didn’t hinder his running ability, it did seem to mess with his timing in the pocket. That might not have been an issue against an average NFL defense, but Cleveland’s top-two unit ate up every opportunity to harass the third-year starter. The Browns introduced static to the pocket all afternoon, Lawrence rushed throws and, oops, it led to three interceptions in a 31-27 loss.
Lawrence looked disjointed throughout the afternoon. Christian Kirk’s absence didn’t help, but the only player he clicked with was tight end Evan Engram. Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones stood as his top two wideouts; between them they had nine catches for 81 yards on 27 targets — barely three yards per pass thrown their way.
2nd pick of the day for @MartyMargg1‼️#JAXvsCLE on CBS & NFL+ pic.twitter.com/fbiWGLn9Ii
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) December 10, 2023
He may have been a problem in Week 14, but was he truly the most disappointing? Fortunately, we’ve got tools to better understand just how damaging each underwhelming performances was. Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player.
By comparing each passer’s Week 14 EPA against their 2023 adjusted average, we get a better picture of just how frustrating their days were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com. So let’s take a look at who disappointed the most in the 14th Sunday of the 2023 season.
8
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: -1.0
Week 14 EPA: 1.8
Difference: 2.8 points better
Ridder is a perfectly adequate quarterback in the middle of the field. Get him near a goal line — any goal line — and it’s a problem. For the Falcons.
Winfield Jr. strips Ridder in the end zone for a safety!
📺: #TBvsATL on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8SAQa pic.twitter.com/W9rmzsXyV1— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023
This is how, despite having a positive EPA, he still ends up on this list. That and the fact he threw it short of the goal line with no timeouts remaining and the game on the line in what could have been a stunning comeback:
Bucs vs. Falcons comes down to the final play.
Tampa Bay takes sole possession of first place in the NFC South with the win. #TBvsATL pic.twitter.com/IDSN9LpsUe
— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023
This is the plane on which Ridder exists. Raw numbers, from traditional stats to advanced, suggest he’s a perfectly cromulent quarterback. And some weeks he is!
But he’s also a wildly frustrating player who channels his most frustrating tendencies into totally inappropriate avenues, fumbling at the goal line or running face first into danger instead of away from it.
Desmond Ridder appeared to have Bijan Robinson for a TD on this play, but was unable to get it to him. pic.twitter.com/6qa7MBq80Y
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 10, 2023
That said, he was able to glean big days from Drake London and Kyle Pitts (13 catches, 229 yards and a touchdown between them) when it was clear Bijan Robinson was far from his peak. That’s a sign things could change for the better moving forward — though his audition time as Atlanta’s franchise quarterback is running out.
7
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 2.2
Week 14 EPA: -5.4
Difference: 7.6 points worse
Lawrence rushed back from a high ankle sprain with his sights set on strengthening the Jaguars’ grip on the AFC North. The good news is he threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns. The bad news is it took him 50 passes to get there and came with three interceptions.
He threw 18 passes that traveled more than 10 yards downfield. He had as many completions (three) as picks on those attempts.
If nothing else, this was a gutsy effort that was likely better than anything backup C.J. Beathard would have done. And it didn’t cost the Jaguars in the standings, as both the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans lost Sunday. But it was a big ol’ mess from a player who has repeatedly stepped to the precipice of stardom only to back off at the last moment.
6
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 0.0
Week 14 EPA: -9.6
Difference: 9.6 points worse
Carr’s season EPA clocking in at a completely neutral 0.0 feels right. He is truly the [[replacement player]] in all calculations of value over replacement player in the NFL. This is something for which the Saints were compelled to pay $100 million guaranteed last offseason.
That giant payday may be why Carr feels obligated to play through all manner of injury despite the fact he’s clearly not 100 percent. Against the Carolina Panthers, a team with a massive liability downfield, Carr’s average pass in the first half traveled just two yards downfield. He threw only two passes that made it more than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage in those 18 attempts.
Derek Carr has only thrown 2 passes that have gone more than 5 yards downfield and *still* has more interceptions than touchdowns pic.twitter.com/Y7zyfeu8SP
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 10, 2023
You may notice the interception four yards behind the line of scrimmage. This, somehow, may not have been the most confusing screen pass he threw on Sunday.
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 10, 2023
Carr was better in the second half, in part because it would be difficult to be much worse. He was mostly a caretaker behind center, occasionally shuffling off passes to much better players (Chris Olave) or giving the world some “let’s remember some guys” energy by finding Jimmy Graham in the end zone for six points. All you really need to know about him is that A.T. Perry a rookie with exactly one target Sunday, led the team in receiving yards with 44.
5
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 10.3
Week 14 EPA: -3.2
Difference: 13.5 points worse
Sure, Kadarius Toney was hot garbage. But so was Mahomes in a meaningful way, struggling to convert third downs and create plays downfield. He attempted 13 passes that traveled at least 10 yards downfield. He completed only four of them.
That’s not the Mahomes the world is used to. Travis Kelce did his thing and Rashee Rice continued to prove his worth as a rookie, but that’s all he could rely on Sunday evening. The Chiefs’ inability to reload his receiving cupboard remains a devastating factor in the team’s sudden regression to mere goodness.
Of course, he’s still Patrick Mahomes. In fact, now he’s an angry, motivated Mahomes. We’ll see if that makes any difference moving forward.
4
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 7.1
Week 14 EPA: -7
Difference: 14.1 points worse
Goff’s regression hasn’t come all at once. He’s run out of steam at roughly the same rate as the rest of his team, turning what once looked like a superhighway to the NFC North title — the first in team history — into a dirt road. Detroit is 2-2 in its last four games, splitting the series with the Chicago Bears (barely, thanks to a Week 11 comeback) and losing to the Green Bay Packers.
Goff’s EPA per game over the first three games that stretch? A meager 1.1. This was all lip service toward Sunday’s collapse in Chicago.
.@NBAxJay1 read that perfectly
📺: #DETvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/hEDdvVMfma
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) December 10, 2023
Goff led the Lions back from an early 10-0 deficit to tie the game at the half. Then … nothing. His first five drives of the second half resulted in 16 net yards. He completed just eight of his 20 third and fourth quarter passes while throwing an interception, botching a snap exchange and being sacked thrice.
This is the liability Goff brings to the table. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was able to revive his career with imaginitive playcalling, but opponents have caught up to Detroit’s creativity. That leaves a 9-5 team with plenty to prove over the final three weeks of the season.
The Lions are almost certainly going to make it to the playoffs. Whether or not they can do damage once there will come down to Goff’s ability to reclaim his early 2023 form.
3
Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: -5.0
Week 14 EPA: -26.2
Difference: 21.2 points worse
Look, Young’s embattled rookie season has set expectations very, very low. Some of this is his fault — like his struggles attacking the middle of the field deep downfield. Much of it is not, because his offensive line is a bunch of broken subway turnstiles and his top wideout is a 33-year-old Adam Thielen.
That means he has to be pretty bad to make this list. Like, go three-for-15 in the first half bad.
Oh, hey!
You know the sound Sideshow Bob makes after stepping on a rake in The Simpsons? That’s exactly how I reacted to this passing chart. He also had an interception overturned to a fumble that is effectively the sigil for how hopeless the Panthers’ 2023 has been.
PUT THE PRESSURE ON. PICKED BY PETE. SAINTS BALL
📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/QiJpJ7HeLN
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) December 10, 2023
Amazingly, things got worse in the second half. Three straight drives ended with a turnover on downs, turning a 14-6 game into a 28-6 defeat. He dropped back to pass 17 times in the fourth quarter and gained 35 net yards.
This is the definition of ineffectual. The Panthers are a mess and won’t have anything to show for it other than the right to give the Chicago Bears the top overall pick in next spring’s draft — penance for the trade that allowed them to select Young without a support network in place for a broken franchise QB. The only thing left to wonder in 2023 is whether Week 14 was Carolina’s nadir or if there’s still room left to fall.
2
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 7.5
Week 14 EPA: -14.1
Difference: 21.6 points worse
Look, it doesn’t matter if you lost your top two wideouts to injury in consecutive weeks. You get soundly out-played by Zach Wilson, you end up here.
That’s exactly the situation through which Stroud has suffered since Week 13. That win over the Denver Broncos saw Tank Dell lost for the season due to a broken ankle. On Sunday, Nico Collins left the game with a calf injury, leaving his status uncertain going forward. With tight end Dalton Schultz out, that meant players like Brevin Jordan and Xavier Hutchinson took on elevated roles against a stellar New York Jets defense.
This was a problem.
.@QuinnenWilliams is THAT GUY ¯_(ツ)_/¯#HOUvsNYJ on CBS pic.twitter.com/XfRq3knDYo
— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 10, 2023
Stroud gave us an idea of what life would have been like had the talent-depleted Panthers drafted him. He had little support from his wideouts and the New York pass rush got to him for four sacks on only 27 dropbacks — eventually ending his day with a fourth quarter head injury.
The rookie failed to complete a single pass that traveled at least 15 yards downfield (five attempts). He was just two for 11 with passes that went more than six yards beyond the line of scrimmage. This was a disaster all around, though an excusable one given the circumstance.
1
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
2023 expected points added (EPA) per game: 7.6
Week 14 EPA: -19.5
Difference: 27.1 points worse
Herbert went from bad to worse, playing terrible football before leaving the game with a broken finger that’s likely to shut him down for the end of a lost season in Los Angeles. 2023 has been a mess in general, but Herbert had been the silver lining on all that. This was not the case in Week 14.
Tipped & picked!!!!
📺: CBS
pic.twitter.com/eiNEG9UMDd— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 10, 2023
Before leaving in the second quarter, Herbert had dropped back 21 times for 59 net yards. The Chargers offense faced 12 third down situations. They failed to convert a single one. This was a disaster, but Herbert’s injury suggests it’s one he won’t have to be a part of much longer in 2023.
