Over the past nine seasons, the Dodgers became the big dog in the major leagues by making the postseason every year while showing the willingness to win at all costs. Los Angeles has three appearances in the World Series over this span but one title (2020). They’ve won 66.4 percent of their games over the previous three seasons while outscoring their opponents by 678 runs (1.77 per game). The Dodgers have six other World Series titles (1955, 1959, 1963, 1965, 1981, and 1988).
Los Angeles led baseball in ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.097) with the second-most strikeouts (1,599). Their bullpen finished with 41 wins, 28 losses, and 56 saves. Their relievers ranked second in ERA (3.16). The Dodgers slipped to fourth in runs (830) and home runs (237) while stealing 65 bases (17th).
They signed SP Andrew Heaney and RP Daniel Hudson over the winter. LA lost SP Max Scherzer (NYM), SP Clayton Kershaw, RP Kenley Jansen, RP Corey Knebel (PHI), RP Jimmy Nelson, and RP Joe Kelly from their pitching staff. In addition, SS Corey Seager took his bat to Texas, and 1B Albert Pujols is out looking for a new home to try to push his home run total over 700 (679 in his career).
The Dodgers have two lead aces in SP Walker Buehler, and SP Julio Urias, who set career-best in innings pitched in 2022. They hope SP Trevor Bauer doesn't miss any more games due to his off-the-field issues in 2021. His challenge will be facing the backlash of his incident. I'm a fan of SP Tony Gonsolin, but he is coming off a season with a right shoulder issue. The combination of SP David Price and SP Andrew Heaney should beat most fifth starters in baseball.
Los Angeles has a new sheriff manning the ninth inning (Blake Treinen), and they should have no problem filling the missing gaps in the bullpen via free agency after the lockout ends.
The top of the Dodgers' lineup has two explosive bats with OF Mookie Betts and SS Trea Turner. To maintain a top offensive ranking, LA needs OF Cody Bellinger to bounce back from a down season and 2B Gavin Lux to become a star. 1B Max Muncy may tie up the DH spot early in the year as he recovers from TJ surgery on his left elbow.
Los Angeles will be in the heat of the battle again in 2022, but their front office must find a couple of missing links if they want to win the World Series.
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
Starting Lineup
OF Mookie Betts
After only missing 73 games from 2015 to 2020, Betts missed almost a quarter of last season with a lingering hip injury and an early-year forearm issue. He finished with a decline in his contact batting average (.324 – .380 from 2018 to 2020). Betts also lost value with runners on base (RBI rate – 14).
His bat underperformed over the first half of the year in batting average (.256), but Betts was on a productive pace in runs (58), home runs (13), RBI (38), and stolen bases (7). Unfortunately, his missed games in July and August led to only 161 at-bats after the All-Star break. Betts’s stats down the stretch projected to over 550 at-bats, 120 runs, 34 home runs, 68 RBI, and 10 stolen bases.
He finished 35th in launch angle (18.9) with weakness in his hard-hit rate (41 – 147th) and barrel rate (7.8 – 164th). Betts continues to have a fly-ball swing path (43.4 percent), but he doesn’t have an elite HR/FB rate (13.8 – 12.5 in his career).
His strikeout rate (15.6) is drifting up while remaining well above the league average. Additionally, he continues to have a plus walk rate (12.4).
Fantasy Outlook
Betts finished 65th in SIscore (0.84) for hitters after ranking fourth in 2020 (4.20), 12th in 2019 (6.52), 1st in 2018 (12.89), and 13th in 2017 (7.07). His regression in steals last year came from his hip issue. However, before 2021, he picked up 108 stolen bases over 126 attempts (85.7 percent). Betts is the 12th hitter drafted in 2022 in the NFBC in mid-February with an ADP of 15. His ability to hit average and score plus runs can separate him from the field in two categories. I expect a push back over 20 steals with more chances with SS Trea Turner looking to run behind him in the lineup. My advice is don’t sleep at the wheel when given an opportunity to roster him.
SS Trea Turner
Over the last 222 games, Turner has been the best fantasy player in baseball by SIscore (5.09 and 10.03) for hitters. He hit .330 over 828 at-bats with 153 runs, 40 home runs, 118 RBI, and 44 stolen bases. His contact batting has been elite in 2019 (.380), 2020 (.396), and 2021 (.402).
Turner was exceptional against left-handed pitching (.392 with 11 home runs and 32 RBI over 153 at-bats) while striking out only 19 times. He hit over .300 every month last year, highlighted by a monster September (.353 with 24 runs, eight home runs, 21 RBI, and six stolen bases over 116 at-bats).
Last July, he landed on the Covid-19 list, leading to nine missed days.
Turner continues to have a favorable strikeout rate (17.0) with fade in his walk rate (6.4). He has been an outstanding hitter with runners on base over the previous three seasons (RBI rate – 18.1).
His hard-hit rate (46.1) ranked 66th, but Turner had lower finishes in launch angle (11.4 – 196th) and barrel rate (7.4 – 174th). He has never had a fly-ball rate over 35.0 (33.7 in 2021 and 33.2 in his career). Turner delivered a higher HR/FB rate in 2020 (17.4) and 2021 (17.0) than his career average (14.0).
Fantasy Outlook
This year he draws the top ADP (1.6) in the NFBC in the early draft season, slightly ahead of Fernando Tatis (2.0). Turner’s attraction and expected edge come from his batting average and steals, but I could see a regression in his contact batting average. He is trending up, and the Dodgers’ offense should produce more run and RBI chances. My projection will come closer to .300 with 110 runs, 25 home runs, 80 RBI, and 35 stolen bases.
OF Cody Bellinger
Over his last 528 at-bats, Bellinger only hit .195 with 72 runs, 22 home runs, 66 RBI, and nine stolen bases. When adding in his stats after the All-Star break in 2019 (.263 over 278 at-bats with 61 runs, 17 home runs, 44 RBI, and seven steals), the idea of him being an elite player is diminished.
In his down run between 2020 and 2021, Bellinger walked 10.3 percent of the time with regression in his strikeout rate (22.9). His contact batting average has been disastrous in back-to-back seasons (.298 and .235) after coming in at .372 over his first three years with the Dodgers.
Bellinger had an outstanding approach in 2019 (strikeout rate – 16.3 and walk rate – 14.4).
Four games into last year, Bellinger landed on the injured list for seven weeks with a hairline fracture in his left leg. He battled a hamstring issue in June, leading to another missed 12 games. In September, Bellinger also had a third trip on the injured list with a broken rib.
Fantasy Outlook
In essence, 2021 was a throwaway season for Bellinger. There wasn’t any data point to make a case to invest in him this year. With a .265 with 85 runs, 25 home runs, 85 RBI, and 10 steals over 550 at-bats, he would rank about 45th in SIscore for hitters. His ADP (99) in the NFBC in mid-February ranks him as the 63rd batter off the board. Nevertheless, I see value as my projection will be above his floor listed above. Bellinger has a golden ceiling if anyone puts up shillings in fantasy leagues.
3B Justin Turner
Turner finished with over 500 at-bats for only the second time in his career. He matched his career-high in home runs (27) with a new top in runs (87). His strikeout rate (16.0) and walk rate (10.0) remain in a favorable area.
His bat offered an edge in April (.330 with 17 runs, six home runs, and 20 RBI over 94 at-bats) and July (.326/15/7/21 over 89 at-bats). However, after the All-Star break, Turner had fade in his batting average (.241).
A groin issue cost him some time in August, followed by neck and hamstring injuries in October.
He finished 30th in launch angle (19.2 – 30th), supported by his fly-ball swing path (43.8). Turner ranked 118th in hard-hit rate (42.4) and 160th in barrel rate (7.9).
Fantasy Outlook
This draft season, Turner brings a safe, steady feel to the third base position. His ADP (159) is about a round higher than 2021 in the NFBC. He continues to be a better player after the age of 30. Turner hit .294 over his last 2,540 at-bats with 406 runs, 120 home runs, and 390 RBI while missing 158 games. At age 37, his bat should naturally have more regression. When a player has a ceiling of a .280/80/25/80 season with a mid-tier ADP, I will shop in an aisle with more upside.
1B Max Muncy
The Dodgers gave Muncy the best opportunity of his career last year, leading to career-highs in at-bats (497), hits (124), and home runs (36). He continues to have a high average hit rate (2.113) and elite walk rate (14.0). His strikeout rate (20.3) was the lowest of his career.
Muncy was a better player against left-handed pitching (.276 with 11 home runs and 27 RBI over 134 at-bats). He played the best in May (.330/23/10/19 over 91 at-bats) and July (.315 with 14 runs, five home runs, and 24 RBI over 89 at-bats).
He finished 21st in barrel rate (16.1) and 63rd in hard-hit rate (46.6) while ranking lower in his launch ankle (15.2 – 104th). His swing path tends to be balanced with strength in his HR/FB rate (23.1).
Last November, Muncy had TJ surgery on his left elbow (non-throwing). He should have enough time to recover for opening day.
Fantasy Outlook
Last year the Dodgers gave him most of his at-bats, hitting second (286) and fourth (106) in the batting order. Los Angeles should try to keep OF Mookie Betts and SS Trea Turner next to either in the batting order to take advantage of their speed. The next question comes from separating their top two lefties. If Muncy can apply his 2021 approach to his contact batting average in 2018 (.394) and 2019 (.361), he would post the best batting average of his career. I expect him to be a three-category asset again this year. His ADP (147) in the NFBC ranks him as the 91st hitter drafted or 47 spots higher than his SIscore (2.26 – 44th) in 2021.
C Will Smith
Over three seasons with the Dodgers in a split role, Smith hit .262 with 124 runs, 48 home runs, 143 RBI, and five steals over 698 at-bats.
Smith had tremendous growth in his approach (strikeout rate – 19.3 and walk rate – 12.2) over the past two seasons with the Dodgers. In his rookie year, he whiffed 26.5 percent of the time while also having struggles making contact in the minors (23.0 percent strikeout rate).
His average hit rate (1.916) has been in an elite home run producing area every season in pro ball. Smith has one of the highest fly-ball rates (46.3 – 48.5 in his short career) in the majors. He had regression in his HR/FB rate (16.7) over the past two years. His launch angle (19.4) ranked 27th with a reasonable hard-hit rate (43.8 – 90th) and barrel rate (10.8).
Smith did most of his damage last year against right-handed pitching (.270 with 19 home runs and 65 RBI over 293 at-bats).
His minor league resume (.243 with 55 home runs, 180 RBI, and 16 stolen bases over 1,034 at-bats) painted a weaker picture in batting average.
Fantasy Outlook
There should be a green flashing light next to Smith’s name this draft season. The Dodgers need to get him 500 at-bats, and the DH in the National League should be a big win for him. His ADP (62) in the NFBC prices him the third-best catching option. Smith is on a path to deliver a .270/80/30/90 season, and he may very well end up being the clean-up hitter for Los Angeles.
2B Chris Taylor
The Dodgers gave Taylor almost full-time at-bats in four of the past five seasons. He had a breakout season in 2017 (.288 with 85 runs, 21 home runs, 72 RBI, and 17 stolen bases over 514 at-bats), which almost matched his stats in 2021 (.254/92/20/73/13 over 507 at-bats).
Taylor has a high strikeout rate (28.7 – 27.5 in his career) while doing a better job taking walks (10.8 percent) over the past two years. He finished with more success against left-handed batters (.296 with six home runs and 25 RBI over 152 at-bats).
In July, he posted an excellent month (.333 with 21 runs, seven home runs, and 20 RBI over 105 at-bats). However, Taylor did lose his way over his final 150 at-bats (.187 with 16 runs, three home runs, 14 RBI, and three steals).
His fly-ball rate (41.6) set a career-high. Taylor didn’t have an edge in his hard-hit rate (38.1 – 196th), with a better ranking in his launch angle (17.4 – 60th) and barrel rate (10.2 – 95th).
Fantasy Outlook
Taylor’s success in his average hit rate (1.721) and contact batting average (.379) give him a floor of 20 home runs. His batting average has more risk than reward based on his strikeout rate. His ADP (140) in the NFBC fits his results from last year. Taylor is a tricky player based on where he should hit in the batting order and his higher price point.
OF AJ Pollock
Pollock has been surprisingly productive over the past two seasons for the Dodgers. He hit .290 with 83 runs, 37 home runs, 103 RBI, and 11 stolen bases over 580 at-bats. However, a hamstring issue led to two stints on the injured list and 33 missed games.
His strikeout rate (19.0) was the lowest of his past four years. Pollock has a rising contact batting average (.375), and his average hit rate (1.807) graded well over the past five seasons.
He delivered impressive stats over his final 218 at-bats (.330 with 33 runs, 15 home runs, 44 RBI, and seven stolen bases). Pollock finished with similar success against righties (.301/14/52 over 259 at-bats) and lefties (.288/7/17).
His hard-hit rate (47.4 – 53rd) and barrel rate (11.1 – 71st) graded well while needing to improve his launch angle (12.0 – 182nd). Over the past four seasons, he has had a balanced swing path with a high floor in his HR/FB rate (17.1).
Fantasy Outlook
Pollock has an early ADP of 219 as the 133rd batter off the board. His stats in 2021 ranked him 79th by SIscore (0.03) for hitters. He has a history of injuries (375 missed games from 2016 to 2021), so fantasy managers will need an injury cover at some point of the year. However, Pollock projects as a value even if he misses a couple of weeks.
2B Gavin Lux
The Dodgers drafted Lux with the 20th selection in the 2016 June MLB Amateur Draft. Over five seasons in the minors, he hit .304 with 311 runs, 49 home runs, 203 RBI, and 52 steals over 1,646 at-bats. His walk rate (11.1) has top of the order value with an above the league average strikeout rate (18.3).
In 2019, Lux blossomed at AAA (.347 with 99 runs, 26 home runs, 76 RBI, and 10 stolen bases over 458 at-bats). LA called him up in September (.240 with two home runs, nine RBI, and two steals over 75 at-bats).
The sprint season hurt Lux’s opportunity in 2020. His bat never got rolling over his 63 at-bats (.175 with eight runs, three home runs, eight RBI, and one steal).
Last year, the Dodgers gave him development time, but Lux finished with weakness in his contact batting average (.321) and average hit rate (1.506). On the positive side, he had a better approach (strikeout rate – 21.8 and walk rate – 10.8).
His swing path leads to a low fly-ball rate (32.7 with LA). Lux struggled against left-handed pitching (.188 with one home run and five RBI over 85 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
Lux brings a wild card feel. However, his range looks to be between a platoon player to a breakout star. He hit the ball much harder in the minors, pointing to a high ceiling. The Dodgers have the room to get him in the lineup on most nights in 2022. His ADP (226) in the NFBC in mid-February prices him as a starting player. For someone looking for the passcode to a championship, Lux should hit for average with a reasonable floor in the other floor categories.
3B Miguel Vargas
Just when Justin Turner is ready to hang up his glove for the Dodgers, they have an upside stud bat prepared to fire in the majors. Over the three seasons in the minors, Vargas hit .316 with 209 runs, 32 home runs, 183 RBI, and 31 stolen bases over 1,174 at-bats. In addition, his walk rate (9.2) and strikeout rate (15.6) graded well.
Last year he had 327 at-bats of experience at AA, leading to a .321 batting average with 67 runs, 16 home runs, 60 RBI, and seven stolen bases.
Fantasy Outlook
Los Angeles will start him at AAA this year, and he may be the first player called up if they need another bat. Vargas hits for a high average, and his average hit rate is trending higher. Player to follow in spring training and over the minor league season.
OF Zach McKinstry
When the Dodgers needed a player to replace Cody Bellinger last season, McKinstry gave them a spurt over 54 at-bats (.296 with seven runs, three home runs, and 14 RBI). Unfortunately, an oblique injury knocked him out of the lineup for a month. Over his 94 at-bats in June and July, he hit .192 with 12 runs, four home runs, and 15 RBI.
McKinstry hit .270 over five seasons in the minors with 217 runs, 37 home runs, 170 RBI, and 27 stolen bases over 1,373 at-bats. He hit .293 between AA and AAA in 2019 and 2021 with 105 runs, 26 home runs, 99 RBI, and 12 steals. His walk rate (10.6) in the minors was an asset with an above strikeout rate (19.9).
With Los Angeles, McKinstry struggled to make contact (strikeout rate – 29.1) with a lower walk rate (5.6).
Fantasy Outlook
The Dodgers will use him as a fourth rotational outfielder, and McKinstry can fill some infield roles. His bat is improving, but he needs to clean up his approach.
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Starting Pitching
SP Walker Buehler
Buehler pushed his game to a new level last year, thanks to a career-high in starts (33) and innings pitched (207.2). His WHIP (0.989) has been elite over his previous 95 games. In addition, he won 48 percent of his starts, pushing his career record to 40-13.
His arm had almost equal success against right-handed (.198 BAA) and left-handed (.201 BAA) batters. He allowed two runs or fewer in 25 starts, with his best run from May 17th to August 31st (12-2 with a 1.57 ERA, 0.919 WHIP, and 136 strikeouts over 131.2 innings). However, in September, Buehler did have two disaster starts (eight runs and 15 baserunners over 6.2 innings).
In the postseason, he appeared out of gas (10 runs, 31 baserunners, three home runs, and 18 strikeouts over 18.1 innings). Buehler pitched 189.1 more innings than 2020.
His average fastball (95.5) fell about one MPH from his previous three years. Batters struggled to hit his four-seamer (.210 BAA), slider (.197 BAA), curveball (.181 BAA), cutter (.237 BAA), and changeup (.157 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
There is greatness in Buehler’s arm, and fantasy managers will snatch him up with the 16th pick in the NFBC in mid-February. His next step is proving his arm can handle workhorse innings in back-to-back seasons. He pitched into the seventh inning 17 times last year while throwing 100 pitches or more in 10 games. Buehler has three strikes from 2021 – a lower strikeout rate (9.2), jump in innings pitches, and a finish in September and the postseason. His next step could be 250 strikeouts with repeated success in wins, ERA, and WHIP.
SP Julio Urias
Coming into last season, Urias only pitched 207 innings between the minors and majors from 2017 to 2020. He missed most of 2018 after his recovery from left shoulder surgery in June of 2017.
Urias led the National League in wins (20) with a stellar first-pitch strike rate (70.7). His improved strike-throwing led to the career-best walk rate (1.8). He allowed two runs or fewer in 23 of his 32 starts. The Dodgers allowed him to throw over 100 pitches in only one game, but Urias pitched at least six innings in 15 starts,
His best success came on the road (13-2 with a 2.71 ERA and 108 strikeouts over 103 innings). Urias allowed nine runs, 20 baserunners, and four home runs over 15 innings in the postseason.
Batters barely had a pulse against his curveball (.162 BAA) while offering a plus changeup (.202 BAA). Urias threw his four-seamer (.273 BAA and 19 home runs) almost 48 percent of the time. His average fastball (94.0) came in just above the league average.
Fantasy Outlook
Like Walker Buehler, Urias had a significant jump in pitched innings (145.2). This season, Los Angeles should push him harder, leading to a push over 200 innings. His next step is improving his fastball location in the strikeout zone. Urias should win at least 15 games with a sub 3.00 ERA and 225 strikeouts. However, he has some injury risk based on his extra workload in 2021.
SP Trevor Bauer
Bauer performed as expected in his first half-season with the Dodgers despite regression in his walk rate (3.1) and struggles with home runs (1.6 per nine). In addition, he continued to have a plus strikeout rate (11.5).
Over his previous 28 starts, Bauer went 13-9 with a 2.24 ERA and 237 strikeouts over 180.2 innings. From April 7th to May 26th, he posted a 1.71 ERA, .146 BAA, and 81 strikeouts over 63.1 innings.
His average fastball (94.0) was a tick below his peak in 2019 (94.9). Bauer struggled with his cutter (.284 BAA), but batters hit under .200 vs. his other five pitches (four-seamer – .183 BAA, slider – .113 BAA, curveball – .192 BAA, sinker – .114 BAA, and changeup – .167 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Major League Baseball has yet to rule on Bauer's status for 2022 after no charges were filed for his off-the-field incident last summer. He missed 83 games last year, which points to him possibly being cleared to pitch with time served. His ADP (241) in mid-February climbed 75 spots since the beginning of the month. Fantasy-wise, Bauer should help, but he will have to deal with the fallout for his actions. As a result, his draft value will have a wide range of points of view for different reasons.
SP Tony Gonsolin
Over five seasons in the minors, Gonsolin went 20-14 with a 3.34 ERA, 325 strikeouts, and 10 saves over 283 innings. As a swingman for the Dodgers in 2019 and 2020, he went 6-4 with a 2.60 ERA and 83 strikeouts over 86.2 innings.
Gonsolin started last year on the injured list with a sore right shoulder. Los Angeles gave him the quick hook in many of his first 12 games, leading to a 2.47 ERA and 51 strikeouts over 43.2 innings. His downside over this stretch came 30 walks (6.2 per nine). Over his final three games, he allowed eight runs and 14 baserunners over 12 innings with 14 strikeouts, but he did miss six more with a second right shoulder issue.
His average fastball (93.9) lost about one MPH from 2020. Gonsolin has a plus split-finger fastball (.146 BAA), and slider (.119 BAA), plus batters struggled to his low-volume curveball (.182 BAA). He did lose the feel for his four-seamer (.296 with seven home runs allowed over 98 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
Gonsolin has a live arm while having plenty of questions about the health of his right shoulder. His ADP (321) intrigues based on his potential ceiling. He hasn’t pitched over 56 innings since 2018. Typically, I like Dodgers’ arms, but I don’t see enough volume in his arm to trust over a long season.
SP Andrew Heaney
For the fourth straight season, Heaney underachieved in ERA (4.46). Over this span, he went 25-28 with 4.81 ERA and 518 strikeouts over 471.2 innings. His WHIP (1.255) over this span points to an ERA closer to 3.75.
Home runs allowed have been a problem in his career (1.6 per nine), with more damage in 2021 (29 over 129.2 innings). However, his walk rate (2.6) and strikeout rate (9.9) have been in a favorable area since 2017.
Heaney allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his 23 starts last year. He throws a sinking fastball (92.3) as his top pitch. His curveball (.196 BAA) was his only.
Fantasy Outlook
Heaney has been a losing investment for the sixth straight season. A trip to Los Angeles can’t save his issues with home runs, but he may pitch better on more days. His ADP (300) in the NFBC puts him in a range with more talented pitchers. The ball is your court.
SP David Price
Price opted out of 2020 with concern with COVID-19. Last year the Dodgers opted not to use him in important innings.
After struggling in his first two games (five runs, nine baserunners, and three home runs over 3.2 innings). Price settled down over his next 12.2 innings in relief (two runs, two walks, and 17 strikeouts). However, he lost his way over two games (three runs and nine baserunners over two innings) before posting a 1.46 ERA over his next 12.1 innings despite allowing 20 baserunners. Price ended the year with a 4.60 ERA over his final 43 innings with poor command (17 walks).
Over four years with the Red Sox, he went 46-24 with a fade in his ERA (3.84) and WHIP (1.204).
His average fastball (93.0) matched 2019. His sinker (.319 BAA), and changeup (.290 BAA) lost value. Price had success with his cutter (.222 BAA) and four-seamer (.154 BAA). His strikeout rate (7.1) was a career-low while adding weakness via his walk rate (3.2).
Fantasy Outlook
This year, Los Angeles will pay Price $32 million, but they could also punt him and take the loss if his arm doesn’t rebound. His ADP (632) in the NFBC has a lost and found feel. Any investment comes from better results on the field.
Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
Bullpen
RP Blake Treinen
Treinen had a step forward in his game and success in 2018. He delivered an impressive nine wins plus 38 saves and 100 strikeouts over 80.1 innings for the A’s. However, in 2019, Treinen lost his control (5.7 walks per nine) while struggling with home runs (1.4 per nine), leading to a disaster ERA (4.91) and WHIP (1.619).
Last year, he regained his form (1.99 ERA and 85 strikeouts over 72.1 innings with seven saves). Even with a progression in his arm, Treinen issued 17 walks over his final 36 innings (1.50 ERA and 40 strikeouts).
His average fastball (97.8) almost matched 2018 (97.7). His slider (.089 BAA) was electric while offering a plus cutter (.164), but his sinker (.284 BAA) lost value.
Fantasy Outlook
Treinen keeps the ball in the park, and he will get strikeouts when throwing strikes. His overall major league resume has pockets of failure. With the Dodgers not re-signing Kenley Janson, Treinen has a clear path to saves if his arm is up to the task. His ADP (183) looks reasonable when adding that he was one of the best closers in baseball in 2018. Possible 40 saves with a run at 100 strikeouts.
RP Daniel Hudson
Despite an excellent finish to 2020 with the Nationals (1.44 ERA, 23 strikeouts, and six saves over 25 innings) plus a World Series-clinching save, Hudson was a rough ride. He picked six saves over his first 11 innings with a 5.73 ERA. His arm continued on a path of inconsistency, leading to a 6.52 ERA over his final 9.2 innings. Hudson allowed six home runs over 20.2 innings with a significant drop in his walk rate (4.8).
Last year he pitched at the highest level of his career with Washington (2.20 ERA and 48 strikeouts over 32.2 innings). However, after a trade to the Padres, Hudson lost his command (4.3 walks per nine) with four home runs allowed over 19 innings. His struggles came against left-handed batters (.256 BAA).
His average fastball (97.1) has been elite over the previous seven seasons. Hudson featured a plus slider (.136 BAA) with a decent four-seamer (.248 BAA with five home runs over 129 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
Over the past two seasons, home runs (14 over 72.1 innings) have been a problem for Hudson, putting a damper on his chances of closing. At the same time, his command has been up and down over the previous five years. In the NFBC in the early draft season, he has an ADP of 607. So despite some risk, Hudson still has handcuff value for Blake Treinen.
RP Brusdar Graterol
Over five seasons in the minors, Graterol went 21-8 with a 2.77 ERA and 250 strikeouts over 230.2 innings. In 2019, he made the transition from starter to reliever at AA. After struggling at AAA (5.06 ERA) in relief, Minnesota still called him up to the majors in September.
Over 10 appearances with the Twins, Graterol posted a 4.66 ERA and 10 strikeouts over 9.2 innings while allowing a run or more in 30 percent of his appearances.
The Dodgers gave him 57 games of experience over the past two years, leading to a 3.97 ERA and 40 strikeouts over 56.2 innings. His walk rate (3.5) regressed last year while still offering a minimal strikeout rate (7.3).
Graterol has a blistering fastball (99.6 MPH), but batters hit .269 against his sinker. However, his slider (.151 BAA) graded well.
Fantasy Outlook
Last April, he suffered a forearm issue, which points to a future TJ surgery. Graterol has a waiver wire ADP (647) in the NFBC. His arm has closing upside once he figures out how to strike out batters at a higher rate.
