Tories have ‘completely lost control’ of UK migration numbers, says Starmer – as it happened

The UK border at Heathrow airport. Photograph: Getty Images

5.11pm BST

Afternoon summary

• Keir Starmer has suggested that the government has “completely lost control” of net migration, following reports saying figures out later this month will show it at a record high of around 700,000. (See 12.09am.) He spoke out as Rishi Sunak, who is committed to reducing the overall level of net migration, faces pressure from within his party to bring down overall numbers. Since becoming PM Sunak has mostly focused on illegal migration, which accounts for only a small fraction of the overall immigration total. In the past Starmer has avoided saying total immigration numbers should come down, but he has said that businesses should end their dependence on foreign workers (see 3.34pm).

• Rail services have been brought to a standstill across much of Great Britain after train drivers on Friday began the first of the latest wave of planned strikes in a long-running pay dispute.

• The Conservatives’ decision to water down proposed legislation to remove 4,000 EU laws from the statute books is still a “reckless” and “irresponsible” project, leading barristers have said.

Keir Starmer and Wes Streeting (at the back) at the Francis Crick Institute in north London today, where they were meeting scientists to discuss lung cancer. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PA

4.41pm BST

In the Times today Ben Ansell, a politics professor at Oxford University, is quoted arguing that tactical voting will be crucial at the next election, and that it could deliver a wipeout of the Tories. He says:

Tactical voting could be the difference between a narrow [Labour] victory and something approaching total wipeout for the Tories. A fairly reasonable estimate of tactical voting makes it very, very, very hard for the Conservatives to break 200 seats, let alone get to a majority …

Even with the polls narrowing, if Labour and the Liberal Democrats are efficient you could still end up with a Labour majority and the Lib Dems with 50 seats.

This is a summary of an article that Ansell made at much greater length in a Substack article after the local elections.

Ansell has also developed an election predictor tool which gives predicted seat numbers for the main parties, based on what share of the vote they might have, but which also adjusts those numbers depending on what proportion of people with the option of deploying an anti-Tory tactical vote actually use it. It’s here.

As Ansell illustrates in this tweet (commenting on a poll showing Labour on 41%, and the Tories on 29%), tactical voting could make a huge difference.

Plug this latest poll into my app and you get a good Labour majority. Allow for thirty percent tactical voting you get a large Labour majority. Have fifty percent tactical voting and you get Blair 1997. https://t.co/uyWfHAQrtG pic.twitter.com/2OwNKQeppp

— Ben Ansell (@benwansell) May 8, 2023