A surge in betting on global oil markets just 15 minutes before President Donald Trump announced a temporary halt to his airstrikes on Iran this week has sparked claims of insider trading.
Trump said on his Truth Social platform at 7.05 a.m. Monday: “I am please [sic] to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.”
Iran denied any such talks had taken place, branding them “fake news”.
But according to Bloomberg, at least 6 million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate were suddenly sold between 6.49 a.m. and 6.51 a.m, raising suspicions that word of the president’s announcement was leaked in advance.
International markets, including Germany’s DAX Index Futures and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index Futures, also saw an unusual uptick in trades, the outlet added.
“Just before he posted on social media, quite a lot of people took out contracts that would allow them to profit from the oil price falling," Rachel Winter, a partner at the wealth management firm Killik & Co. told the BBC.
“So there has been some speculation about insider trading. We don't know if that's true, but hopefully there will be some sort of investigation into that.”
Connecticut Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy, a keen market watcher, recirculated a social media post alleging suspicious activity and claimed: “In one move, $1.5 billion in S&P 500 (ES) futures was bought while $192 million in oil (CL) futures was sold.”
Murphy commented: “$1.5 BILLION. Let me say it again – a $1.5 BILLION BET. Bigger than any futures purchases made at the time. 5 minutes before Trump’s post. Who was it?”
The White House has denied that any profiteering took place, with a spokesman stating: “The only focus of President Trump and Trump administration officials is doing what’s best for the American people.
“The White House does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge, and any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting.”
Global fuel prices have soared since the U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, not least because Iran has reacted by tightening its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil is shipped.
Trump’s announcement did cause prices to tumble as the markets reacted with relief to the five-day hold placed a U.S. plan to bomb Iran’s power plants, hopeful it marked the beginning of the end for a conflict of uncertain purpose and duration.
However, it also served as the cause of further confusion when Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s parliamentary speaker, swiftly contradicted it, denying that any talks had taken place.
“No negotiations have been held with the U.S., and fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the U.S. and Israel are trapped,” he said.
Asked about Iran’s denial, the president was left grasping for a response, insisting that his negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had participated in “very strong talks” that “went perfectly,” leading Iran to accuse the U.S. of “negotiating with yourselves.”
Questions about people profiting by betting on contemporary political events have been raised before, with CNN reporting that one person has made $1 million since 2024 from well-timed bets predicting military action by the U.S. and Israel against Iran.
“All of this is strong signalling of insider activity, based on the amount they made, the markets they bet on, the timing of their trades, the success rates of these trades,” analyst Nick Vaiman told the network.
In another instance, a mystery gambler made more than $400,000 on Polymarket in January by correctly forecasting the removal of then-Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro hours before U.S. special forces swept into Caracas and removed him from power.
Several members of Congress have attempted to crack down on lawmakers profiting from events about which they may have privileged information in advance, with House Administration Committee chair Bryan Steil most recently introducing a bill to that effect.
On Monday, Polymarket and Kalshi said they planned to introduce new insider trading restrictions to pre-emptively “block politicians, athletes, and other relevant people from trading in certain politics and sports markets.”
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