Following hot on the heels of the toughest start to the Tour de France in recent memory with two hilly challenges in the Basque Country, the race crosses the border back into France on stage 3 with a day for the sprinters.
The 193.5km from Amorebieta-Etxano to Bayonne – in the French Basque Country – is far flatter than the preceding two days in the saddle with few real difficulties lying in the way of the fast men before a technical run-in and slightly uphill finishing line.
Two decades ago when the Tour de France last visited Bayonne, a souped-up Tyler Hamilton raced home two minutes up on the Erik Zabel-led peloton. A repeat of that long solo effort seems very unlikely on Monday, though, with the Tour peloton packed with eager sprinters – Jasper Philipsen, Fabio Jakobsen, Caleb Ewan, Mark Cavendish, Biniam Girmay, Dylan Groenewegen, Mads Pedersen among them.
"That's what we're looking forward to for me and Fabio. This weekend is not really our race," Soudal-QuickStep lead-out man extraordinaire Michael Mørkøv told Cyclingnews ahead of stage 2.
"Of course, the start takes the freshness away from everybody which could make the sprints maybe a little bit less nervous than if we had to sprint on the very first day for the stage and the yellow jersey. But of course, everybody here is in top shape so I don't think anybody will be fatigued on Monday."
In the Dane, the Belgian team possesses the best lead-out in the peloton, though Alpecin-Deceuninck's duo of Mathieu van der Poel and Jasper Philipsen lie in wait as the other favourites for glory in Bayonne.
There'll be plenty of eyes on Cavendish, too, with the Manxman setting out in search of a record-breaking 35th Tour stage victory. This July he has the help of old HTC teammate Mark Renshaw, the Australian back amongst it as a sprint advisor for Astana Qazaqstan.
"It brings another kind of dimension, not just for the sprint stages. It really takes a bit of pressure off to visualise and look through before the stages," Cavendish said in Bilbao before Cyclingnews sought out Renshaw for insight on the renewed partnership and the upcoming days on Tour.
Renshaw said that he had already been out to recon the early sprint days, spending time overlaying the route on Google Earth, recording video of the roads, and making notes.
"I think tomorrow is going to be difficult because we have a series of climbs at around 25km to go," Renshaw said of stage 3. "They're not climbs where sprinters will get dropped, but you start in the back of the bunch which isn't ideal. The run-in is exceptionally fast with double roads and brand-new tarmac and into a technical finish."
The final 5km of the stage has five roundabouts lying in wait for the peloton, with a hairpin bend 2km out and a curve into the rising final 200 metres - all of which are likely to feature highly in Renshaw's notebook.
Of course, the rest of the teams with sprint ambitions will have done similar studying, even if not every squad can count on the expertise of a former top lead-out man and sprinter.
All the sprinters in the race, from 38-year-old Cavendish at his final Tour de France to race debutants such as Jordi Meeus and Sam Welsford, will have had to battle through the tough two opening stages.
The bottom of the general classification is already littered with sprinters – Jakobsen is 152nd, Welsford 160th, Alexander Kristoff 162nd, Phil Bauhaus 168th, and Mark Cavendish 171st. It has been a Grand Départ which might leave an effect on some more than others, Renshaw said.
"It's the hardest start I've seen and it's now 20 years I've been following the Tour and 10 years riding it," he said. "I think it's a big advantage for Cav as one of the oldest sprinters and one of the most experienced. OK, you put Welsford and Cav side by side – Welsford's young, he hasn't got the experience of how to ride in Grand Tours, but he's got all the extra power from being youthful.
"We saw in the Giro that he got better day by day and he was better than at the start. So for Cav, I think having a hard start is an advantage."
Cavendish has already featured in two sprints this Tour, placing fourth and sixth from the peloton at the intermediate sprints in the first two stages as Pedersen and Philipsen led the way.
It's "little wins" like picking up points without expending too much effort which will give Cavendish a boost, Renshaw said, while also singling out Soudal-QuickStep ("I think really they hold the key") and Caleb Ewan ("We saw him bopping around the front of the bunch on stage 1") as ones to watch.
But there's no certain way to evaluate the sprinters – not even in the intermediates – before they actually get down to business on Monday afternoon and then, a day later, at the twisting finale on the Circuit Paul Armagnac in Nogaro.
"The two finishes on Monday and Tuesday are quite technical so it's going to be an interesting sprint," Mørkøv said. "It's hard to tell about the form, you know? Who is quickest on the finish line you haven't really been able to see on the climbs yet."
