It may only be March, but in truth, it's never too early to start thinking about the biggest race of the year, and the Tour de France always comes around quickly. We went through our very early favourites back in October when the route was announced, but now that the first block of racing and Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico are done and dusted, it's time to look at how the potential GC favourites are faring.
As schedules were confirmed, a few names have dropped off our list – João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and Ben O'Connor (Jayco AlUla) are targeting the Giro d'Italia instead, for example – and others have rocketed up the rankings thanks to their early-season performances.
Some riders have also stayed exactly where they are, particularly at the top, where the Tour's dominant rider for the last few years is absolutely still holding onto his favourite status, even though we have only seen him race once so far in 2026. No prizes for guessing who that is.
The first major stage races and Spring Classics can tell us a lot, and have helped inform our first evaluations of 2026, but there's also a lot of racing still to come between now and Barcelona. We'll come back to this ranking a few more times this spring, before settling on our definitive ranking before racing gets underway in July. But for now, here are the riders we think are on track to challenge for yellow this summer.
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
In any normal circumstance, it would seem strange to give the rider who has raced the least and therefore given us the least to go off top the billing, but it's never normal circumstances when it comes to Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG). The Slovenian has only raced one day this year, at Strade Bianche, so we have no indication of his stage racing form – and won't until the Tour de Romandie in April. But when you're the four-time Tour champion, none of that really matters, you're still going to be the favourite.
Despite some hints last year that he might be getting a bit fed up with the Tour and its circus, Pogačar is once again targeting the race this year, where he'll be in contention for a record-equalling fifth yellow jersey, to join a legendary group with Jacques Anquetil, Eddy Merckx, Bernard Hinault, and Miguel Indurain. Even if he might be tiring of the race, there's a clear motivation to go for win number five, and probably even six.
Pogačar's one race day in 2026 saw him win Strade Bianche for a fourth time with a signature 80km solo move. In theory, a one-day Classic victory doesn't tell us that much specifically about how a rider's stage racing form might be in a few months, but it proved that he's hitting the ground running yet again and didn't encounter any issues in the off-season. The way the next few months will tell us more, but even at this early stage, nothing has changed since last summer to suggest that Pogačar is anything less than unbeatable at the Tour. The odds of victory number five in July seem pretty high. (MP)
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease A Bike)
After a crash in training and then illness forced Jonas Vingegaard to delay his season start from the UAE Tour back to Paris-Nice, there were always going to be question marks over where he was form-wise, and whether he would be firing on all cylinders from the get-go.
It's safe to say that with his victory at Paris-Nice – winning with the widest margin for 87 years, 4:23 – Vingegaard answered them, dominating the uphill finales on stages 4 and 5 to build an insurmountable lead, and easily handling some of the most brutal conditions we've seen this season along the way.
Visma-Lease a Bike guided him well, too, with particularly impressive rides from Edoardo Affini in the crosswinds and Victor Campenaerts as his climbing lead-out man, so Vingegaard's presence does seem to have steadied the ship after a rocky start to 2026 for the team.
With Simon Yates retiring and both Wout van Aert and the Dane having delayed starts, it was this type of GC performance that the team were crying out for. His next test will be vital, though, at the Volta a Catalunya, where he will take on the likes of Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) and João Almeida (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) over some tough long climbs, which he missed out on at Paris-Nice after the queen stage had to be heavily reduced to just 47km.
A two-time winner of the Tour, Vingegaard still looks the most likely to really challenge Pogačar come July. That will, of course, come after he's already raced at the Giro d'Italia, looking to match the double that his Slovenian rival achieved two years earlier and become only the eighth man in history to win all three Grand Tours. (JM)
Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates-XRG)
Again, it might seem an unusual move to put a non-leader so high up this list, but this is UAE Team Emirates-XRG – everything is unusual. Isaac del Toro is set to make his Tour debut this year in favour of returning to the Giro d'Italia, which he almost won last year, and whilst this is clearly a move to gain experience in the biggest race, we can never really expect the Mexican to take a back seat or just join along for the ride.
There's no doubt of his loyalty to Pogačar, and we're not foreseeing a Bradley Wiggins - Chris Froome-type power struggle, but that doesn't mean Del Toro can't fight for his own overall position as well as supporting Pogačar. And we know it's possible for helpers to finish as high as the podium, just as Adam Yates did behind Pogačar in 2023 – though the Slovenian didn't win that edition, which is perhaps prescient. Are UAE now more insistent that domestiques should fully sacrifice themselves for Pogacar?
We can't know for sure, but we do know that if Del Toro is given even an inch of leeway to think about his own result, he will take it, and possibly to great effect. He was dropped into leadership at the Giro last year – it wasn't until the final week that he would even view himself as the team's leader – and stepped up to the challenge remarkably, finishing on the podium without specifically preparing for that. In 2026 so far, he's grown into a clearer GC leader and already claimed overall titles at the UAE Tour and, most recently, Tirreno-Adriatico, which was a gentler course, but he remained unstoppable. At any other team, he'd probably go to the Tour this year as a leader, and that's certainly in his future, so aiming at a top five or podium seems realistic this year. (MP)
Remco Evenepoel (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe)
If this form update was done before stage 3 of the UAE Tour, then Remco Evenepoel could arguably have been at the top of it, or at least above Vingegaard, having started his time on his new team Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe with a bang, netting six wins from just nine days of road racing.
Unfortunately for the Olympic champion, his stock took a big hit on the first climbing test in the UAE, getting badly dropped in the leader's jersey after responding over-enthusiastically to the initial moves and eventually blowing up as Del Toro and Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious) went up the road.
Red Bull gave reasons such as him not having been to altitude camp yet in 2026 – though this was also true of many of his rivals in the UAE – and that it was simply a bad day. However, his 18th place at Jebel Mobrah was followed up by 15th on Jebel Hafeet, losing more time on GC and ultimately finishing 10th overall, behind many riders who you would say he should be beating.
Nevertheless, the point surrounding Evenepoel's lack of altitude stimulus does stand, but it only highlights his next race at the Volta a Catalunya more. He's been building up the hours on Mount Teide the last couple of weeks, so we will soon see how he faces up against Vingegaard in a true climbing test. (JM)
Juan Ayuso (Lidl-Trek)
Juan Ayuso had an unfortunate time at Paris-Nice, riding into the yellow jersey in the TTT but then dropping out the next day after a crash, but in itself his racing so far has been positive. He galloped to victory at the Volta ao Algarve with an assured and confident ride, and then showed promising signs at Paris-Nice before he was forced out. Seeing him battle with Vingegaard would have given us a better idea of where he sits in the grand scheme of things. But even without that, we can say that he's on a good course for the Tour, where he's admitted himself he'll be aiming for a podium rather than the outright win.
On a less tangible level, it's also fair to say that, after only a couple of months, Ayuso seems happier and more at ease – maybe even more at home – since moving to Lidl-Trek. There's been little drama, and his outward attitude has been positive, which it wasn't always at UAE Team Emirates. This mental positivity can go a long way to aiding performance and will be an asset to Ayuso at the Tour.
The only potential source of friction comes in the form of Mattias Skjelmose, who has long been hoping for a good run at the Tour and has been deprioritised by Ayuso's arrival, but as problems continue to affect him this spring, his claim at any kind of protected status this year is diminishing. (MP)
Oscar Onley & Kévin Vauquelin (Ineos Grenadiers)
Ineos Grenadiers have two new signings hoping to return them to their previous Tour de France glory in Oscar Onley and Kévin Vauquelin, who both finished in the top 10 of last year's race and joined from Pincic PostNL and Arkea-B&B Hotels respectively over the winter.
Their first race together at the Volta ao Algarve was an immediate success, with Onley finishing fourth overall and the Frenchman fifth, but they weren't quite on the level of Ayuso or Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM) on the two key climbing days.
Looking to build on that at Paris-Nice, they made a flying start in the team time trial – a key test for this year's opening Tour de France TTT in Barcelona – as the British team's GC pair were powered to stage victory by Josh Tarling and company, leaving them sat second and third overall.
However, amid the chaos of a brutally wet and windy fourth stage, Vauquelin and Onley took a big hit to their GC hopes, with the latter crashing and losing time on the final climb and the former being forced to chase for almost the entire day after not making the front echelon in the crosswinds.
Onley, fourth at last year's Tour, eventually abandoned, and though Vauquelin fought hard on the final day, he did end up in fourth and agonisingly close to the final podium spot that he wanted. Nonetheless, it's still been a positive start overall for Ineos' new leaders, and their power in numbers could prove vital in their next races and at the Tour. (JM)
Tom Pidcock (Pinarello-Q36.5)
Tom Pidcock should return to the Tour de France in 2026 with Pinarello-Q36.5, but he'll be making his first appearance there as a former Grand Tour podium finisher, having made a big jump in his GC performance at last season's Vuelta a España.
He's started his season with mixed results, already taking third overall at the Ruta del Sol and also winning the final stage in Andalucia. Earlier in the winter, Pidcock went to an altitude camp with his team in Chile ahead of an extended one-day campaign.
Perhaps the warmer weather in South America made his time at Omloop Het Nieuwsblad tougher, where he didn't feature in the finale after freezing in the cold. Turning focus to Strade Bianche, Pidcock had more bad luck as his chain dropped twice on the key sector, which meant he was left behind by Pogačar, Del Toro and Paul Seixas.
He fought back to seventh on the day, so the legs are still in there, but he'll be wanting more from his next appearances at Milano-Torino, Milan-San Remo and the Ardennes Classics, before his build-up to the Tour will begin.
It'll be his team's debut at the race, and he is a vastly stronger overall rider than he was when he last tried to compete on GC in 2024, with the added bonus of one of his favourite mountains featuring twice on the route – Alpe d'Huez, where he won his first-ever GT stage back in 2022. (JM)
Paul Seixas (Decathlon CMA CGM)
The Paul Seixas hype train has well and truly left the station, so there may be some of you who think he should be higher on this list, and some who think being here at all is wild, given he's 19 and has never ridden a race longer than eight stages. And you all may be right at once. But we need to talk about him, and it really is conceivable that he might finish in the top 10 in France this summer. That is, if he even starts, which isn't confirmed, but looks more and more likely by the week.
After coming second at Strade Bianche with an incredibly impressive ride, Seixas skipped out on Paris-Nice and Tirreno with his team continuing to play it cautiously when it comes to not loading too much onto the teenager's legs. He grabbed his first elite stage victory at the Volta ao Algarve, and then backed that up with a Pogačar-esque solo raid at Faun-Ardèche, with Strade Bianche really the cherry on top of the fervour around his potential. It is early to say, and he is only young, but the signs are very clearly good, and reminiscent of Pogačar's early years, so it's certainly not just hysteria at the next great French hope. He is going to be great; that seems obvious by now.
If Decathlon do decide to send him to the Tour, the pressure will be on from the outside, and Seixas will probably downplay it, but he and everyone will know that a top 10 is a realistic goal, given he finished eighth at the Dauphiné last year. Racing over three weeks is different, and it's also possible that he doesn't make it to the end. If he can, though, it wouldn't be shocking to see him finish well. It's only the beginning for Seixas, but it's been a very strong beginning indeed. (MP)
Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X Mobility)
Uno-X Mobility's Tobias Halland Johannessen seems to remain one of the peloton's most underrated GC riders, with his consistent performances across week-long races perhaps not helping him stand out as much as his fellow racers.
The Norwegian had the best year of his career in 2025, finishing fifth at the Critérium du Dauphiné only behind the big stars, before backing this up with sixth overall at the Tour de France, more than proving his worth as a man for the three-week tours.
Into 2026 and Uno-X's first year as a WorldTour team, their key leader has only continued on this path, finishing ninth at the UAE Tour and building on that after a snowy altitude camp in the Sierra Nevada to finish fourth at Tirreno-Adriatico.
He also finished in the top four of all of the hardest climbing days in Italy's Race of the Two Seas, losing out to Jorgenson and Pellizzari for the podium spots mostly due to his 54th-place finish in the stage 1 time trial.
This leaves him a clear area to work on, but when the road kicks uphill, he isn't far away at all from the very best in the world. Another top 10 or higher finish at the Tour in July should not be that much of a surprise, as the former Tour de l'Avenir winner continues to reach closer to his full potential at 26. (JM)
Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious)
Antonio Tiberi is opting for the Tour de France instead of his home Giro this year as he continues to make steady progress as a GC rider. He started 2026 well with fourth at the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana and second at the UAE Tour, where he claimed his first win in several seasons atop Jebel Mobrah. He then had a fairly weak Tirreno-Adriatico, ruing the lack of longer climbs and coming home in a forgettable 42nd place, which isn't a particularly good sign, but comes with the caveat that the route really wasn't designed for him.
His best Grand Tour result so far was fifth at the Giro in 2024, so he does have the capability to do that, but also has a tendency for big blow-ups, which is what he'll be hoping to avoid at the Tour. It does look like his consistency is improving, but the lower half of the top 10 is probably the height of his ambitions at the Tour, unless he pulls out something really spectacular. (MP)
Other contenders
Of course, way more than 10 riders will be targeting the GC in France this July, and there are a lot of riders in the GC picture who could move up our rankings depending on their performances over the next couple of months.
It's unfortunate to leave Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) out of our top 10, considering he finished on the podium last year, but he's been undeniably shunted down the pecking order by Remco Evenepoel. He'll probably be Plan B in July, and might aim for a top 10 on GC for himself, but will start the race focused on Evenepoel.
Cian Uijtdebroeks moved to Movistar for the express reason of better Grand Tour leadership opportunities, and he's being launched straight into it with the Tour this year. It will be a big test for him, and although he's been on the way up, he also has his fair share of bad luck and setbacks, so he'll mainly be looking at a clear run rather than a top result, for the moment.
French fans will be mainly looking at Seixas, should he race, but the usual suspects of David Gaudu and Guillaume Martin (both Groupama-FDJ United) will both be hoping to make it into the top 15 or so. Plus keep an eye on Jordan Jegat (TotalEnergies) who ghosted into 10th last year.
Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost) will return to the Tour after his stage win, stint in yellow and ninth overall in 2025, though replicating a top 10 on GC seems like a big ask for the Irish rider.
Experience the 2026 cycling season with a Cyclingnews subscription that offers you unlimited access to our unrivalled coverage. Our global team will be on the ground at all the major races to bring you breaking news, in-depth features, exclusive interviews and member-exclusive content. Find out more.
