The final stage of this year’s 2023 Tour de France before the second rest day is a brute: five categorised climbs over 179km culminating in a summit finish in the shadow of Mont Blanc.
Yesterday saw a dramatic fight on the high roads to Morzine between reigning champion Jonas Vingegaard and two-time winner Tadej Pogacar. The two giants of this race went head to head, but Pogacar’s big attack was thwarted by a media motorcycle riding far too close, and Vingegaard capitalised to gain one more second over his rival. So Vingegaard starts today’s stage 15 still wearing the yellow jersey, and with a 10-second lead from Pogacar.
This ride begins in the picturesque resort of Les Gets and the first 70km are relatively flat, but what follows is relentless hard climbing and some rapid, technical descents. First comes the category one Col de la Forclaz de Montmin (7.2km at 7.3%), before the longest climb of the day and a potential place to launch a race-defining attack: Col de la Croix Fry (11.3km at 7%). If Pogacar is feeling fresh, he might try to shake off Vingegaard here, but it would be a bold move with 50km to the finish.
A more sensible strategy – and Pogacar has played a relatively conservative, measured game for the majority of this Tour so far – would be to crest the Croix Fry with teammates in hand, tick off the Col des Aravis (4.4km at 5.8%) and the short but sharp Cote des Amerands (2.7km at 10.9%), before attacking on the final ascent to the summit finish at St Gervais Mont Blanc (7km at 7.7%).
Will Pogacar pay for what happened en route to Morzine? “I lost a bullet but it is what it is,” he said of the incident with the motorcycle, which was hemmed in by waves of fans on the mountain road. “It will be a matter of seconds in the coming days. We’ll fight until the end.”
Vingegaard thinks their rivalry will be more explosive than that. “I still don’t think it will be decided by seconds,” the Dane said. “At one point someone will take a fair bit of time on the other.”
That could certainly happen today. There are still two more mountain routes to come, as well as an individual time trial, but stage 15 could well be the day that decides this Tour de France.
Stage 15 route map and profile
Stage 15 map— (letour)
Stage 15 profile— (letour)
The ascent to the finish at St Gervais Mont Blanc— (letour)
Start time
The stage is set to begin at around 12pm BST and is expected to finish at around 5pm BST.
Prediction
It is all set up for another straight shootout between Vingegaard and Pogacar on the final summit, racing to win the stage. Vingegaard is yet to win one on this Tour.
Vingegaard’s best chance is to launch a high-risk attack with a few kilometres to go and try to crack Pogacar with a relentless pace, claiming a big chunk of time just as he did in the first week; Pogacar’s best strategy is to wait until the final few hundred metres where he can unleash his explosive climbing sprint, pinching a few crucial seconds. But given Vingegaard already has the yellow jersey and doesn’t need to take any risks, the latter scenario is more likely. I’m tipping Pogacar to win stage 15 by a handful of seconds.
