The remaining 30 players on the PGA Tour head to Atlanta, Georgia for the final event of the 2022-2023 season. This tournament has undergone a number of structural changes over the years. Starting in 2007, it was the final event of the four tournament FedEx Cup playoffs, with eligibility determined by FedEx Cup points accumulated throughout the season. From 2019 onward, the FedEx Cup was reduced to three events, and the Tour Championship moved from mid September to late August. What also changed in 2019 was the addition of a staggered start. The PGA Tour wanted to ensure that the winner of the tournament this week would also be the winner of the FedEx Cup.
The player with the most FedEx Cup points leading into this week (Scottie Scheffler) will begin the tournament at 10-under par. The player with the second most points (Viktor Hovland) will begin at eight under par. The player with the third most points (Rory McIlroy) will begin at seven under par, and so on down to the fifth at five under par. Player ranked six through 10 will begin at four under, 11 through 15 will begin at three under, and so on, all the way down to numbers 26-30, who will begin at even par. East Lake Golf Club has been the Tour Championship’s home since 2004, and it is once again sure to provide a stern test for the game’s very best.
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Tour Championship: Course Preview
East Lake
East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia was designed by Donald Ross in 1913, but it received a substantial renovation by Rees Jones over the last fifteen years. Rees enacted his usual method of pinching in the fairways, adding bunkers and adding length, and East Lake now features the most narrow fairways on the PGA Tour. Jones’ methods have not necessarily made the course more challenging however, as last year it ranked 24th out of 38 courses in scoring difficulty, and we saw 17 rounds of 65 or better. Of course, much of that has to do with the fact that much of the fat has been trimmed, and all 30 players that have made it to this week are here for a reason.
East Lake still features some gnarly and unpredictable Bermuda rough, and it ranked ninth out of 38 courses in missed fairway penalty, and sixth out of 38 courses in rough penalty. Unlike other mid scoring to tougher courses Bermuda courses such as TPC Southwind, TPC Sawgrass, and PGA National, East Lake is not defined by its water hazards. Water only comes into play on four holes and East Lake ranked 32nd out of 38 courses last year in penalty strokes. East Lake is a death by 1,000 paper cuts course, far more in the same vein as Innisbrook than the aforementioned water intensive tracks.
Outside of the Bermuda rough, East Lake’s greatest defense is its stout quartet of par threes, which all play over 200 yards. While playing from the fairway is certainly essential at the Donald Ross design, nearly 40% of strokes gained over the last two years have come via approach. We’ve even seen inaccurate drivers find some modicum of success here with elite approach play. The green complexes here, unlike other Ross courses, are actually incredibly benign and provide very little pushback. East Lake ranked amongst the easiest on the PGA Tour last year in strokes gained around the green and putting difficulty. The formula this week is accurate driving combined with a mix of precise short iron and long iron play. The starting strokes obviously throws an interesting wrench into the betting markets this week, but East Lake remains a proper ball-striker’s course where we can take our chances with the flat-stick.
Tour Championship Key Stats
- Driving Accuracy Percentage
- Recent Approach Play
- Strokes Gained Tee to Green: Bermuda Courses
Predict the top five finishers at this week's Tour Championship for a chance to win this Golf Monthly x OddsChecker free-to-play golf contest.
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Tour Championship: Outright Winner
Scottie Scheffler (+162) (Bet $100 to collect $262) Bet365 has the best Scottie Scheffler odds
There is really only one fitting solution to this PGA Tour season, and that’s Scottie Scheffler running away with the FedEx Cup after his historic ball-striking run. With another top-five finish at the BMW, his 12th of the season, Scheffler was up to his old tricks once again. The former Masters Champion gained over 13 strokes ball-striking at Olympia Fields, which is the best that he’s hit the ball since the Memorial. Once again, his flat-stick prevented him from crossing the finish line.
Fortunately for him, East Lake features some of the easiest and most straightforward greens on the PGA Tour, and it is a difficult golf course to chase on. Scheffler generally spots a stroke or two on the field every week with his putter while lapping the field in tee to green. Even if he gives back one or two on the greens, it’s hard to imagine that anyone catches him on this golf course. Scheffler remains the number one driver of the ball, and number one approach player in this entire field, and East Lake is the perfect golf course to accentuate his ball-striking prowess and mask his putting woes. We’re due for a runaway, and this is the week we’ll get it.
As you can see, it is imperative that you compare the Tour Championship odds at OddsChecker.
Scottie Scheffler is now best-priced at +162 at Bet365, +150 at BetRivers, +140 at DraftKings, and +135 at FanDuel, a stark $27 to $12 difference in returns. Make sure to pick the best sportsbook for your Scottie Scheffler pick with OddsChecker.
Russell Henley (Without Starting Strokes) (+3300) (Bet $100 to collect $3,400) Go to Bet365 to get the best Russell Henley odds
Considering I feel strongly that Scottie Scheffler is going to run away with the actual FedEx Cup, let’s turn our attention to hunting for value in the “Without Starting Strokes” market. While it is to let fly under the radar, there are few players in the world playing better golf right now than Russell Henley. The Georgia alumni just put together his third top-10 finish in a row at the BMW Championship, where he finished second in an elite field to only Scottie Scheffler in tee to green. Henley now travels to a golf course in East Lake that should be far better suited for his game than Olympia Fields.
The three-time PGA Tour winner is one of the biggest risers both from tee to green and with the flat stick when placed on Bermuda golf courses, and his four top-10 finishes in a row at the Donald Ross-designed Sedgefield Country Club should be translatable to success at East Lake as well. While Henley has not played the Atlanta staple since 2017, he has a 12th and a third in two starts at East Lake, gaining over four strokes to the field in both occurrences. This is unsurprising, considering that he is the only player to rank top-five in this field in both accuracy and overall approach play. I am completely enamored by Henley’s course fit, and I see a tremendous amount of value on him to shoot the lowest 72 hole score in his native state of Georgia.
