Thanks for following the blog with us today, we are closing it now but you can read all our UK politics coverage here.
A summary of today's developments
- A YouGov poll of Conservative party members suggests Liz Truss is on course to beat Rishi Sunak by 62% to 38% in the contest to decide the next prime minister.
- Rishi Sunak says the Tories have to “make our Rwanda policy work”. He told LBC: “We do need to have control of our borders. When my grandparents came over, it was because the government decided they should come here. “At the same time we welcome the best and the brightest, we [need] to get a control of our borders. “The Rwanda policy gives us the opportunity to solve that.” The former chancellor also described his economic plan as “common sense Thatcherism” despite wanting to raise corporation tax for businesses with the exception of smaller firms.
- The UK’s Brexit divorce bill could soar to £42.5bn after the Treasury increased its estimate of the payments owed to the European Union by more than £5bn, PA Media reports.
- The Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank published an assessment of the tax and spending policies of Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. It says we know a lot about Sunak’s plans, because he was chancellor until very recently, but that Truss’s intentions are quite different, and less clear. It says that Truss’s plans ultimately imply public spending would be cut.
- Labour MP Stella Creasy has accused Liz Truss of wanting to take women “back to the 1950s” with her transferable tax allowance plan.
- Ministers will have a year to prepare before cross-examination at the UK’s Covid-19 public inquiry, its chair, Heather Hallett, announced, as she opened what is likely to be one of the broadest statutory investigations in the country’s history.
Rishi Sunak has launched his strongest attack yet on his rival Liz Truss’s economic policies, claiming her £30bn plans for unfunded tax cuts risk stoking inflation and pushing up interest rates.
His attack came as a new poll of Tory party members gave Truss a commanding lead in the race to become prime minister.
Tax and spending has become the key battleground in the hard-fought contest, with Sunak insisting that cutting taxes immediately, as Truss has promised, would risk exacerbating the cost of living crisis.
Rishi Sunak said the Conservatives have to “make our Rwanda policy work” when asked about the controversial immigration policy during an interview with Andrew Marr on LBC.
Here is more from Rishi Sunak telling LBC “one of the first” things he would do as prime minister is appoint an independent ethics adviser.
The post is vacant after Lord Geidt dramatically resigned in June, accusing Boris Johnson of proposing a “deliberate” breach of the ministerial code.
Lord Geidt said he had been narrowly clinging on to his role over partygate but ultimately quit after being forced into an “impossible and odious” position by the Prime Minister over steel tariffs.
He was the second ethics adviser to resign during Johnson’s tenure as Prime Minister.
Speaking on Tonight With Andrew Marr, former chancellor Sunak said: “I definitely will reappoint an independent ethics adviser and it will be one of the first things I do.”
Asked if he would bring back Lord Geidt, he said he “probably” would because he thought he did a good job.
“I haven’t spoken to him about it so I don’t want to put him in an awkward position,” he said.
Liz Truss claims her economic agenda of tax cuts and public spending will revitalise the UK economy, but it is not just her rival prime ministerial candidate Rishi Sunak arguing that the measures will be self-defeating.
Economists have lined up to warn that her £30bn package – including the reversal of this year’s national insurance rise, the suspension of green levies on power bills and the cancellation of a sharp rise in corporation tax in 2023 – will increase inflation and leave the government with higher debt bills.
The foreign secretary and frontrunner in the race for the Tory leadership has criticised the Treasury’s economic record during her opponent’s time as chancellor, saying it has been timid and “contractionary” when it should have been promoting growth.
A watchdog’s report exposing failures in the response to migrant crossings are a “damning indictment” of government policy, according to critics.
Chief Inspector of Borders and Immigration David Neal found the Home Office’s performance was “poor” and said the system was “overwhelmed”.
Labour’s shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper said: “This report is a truly damning indictment of a Conservative Government which has badly lost control of border security.”
She branded findings which revealed fingerprints and photographs were not taken from every migrant that arrives in the UK as “flabbergasting”, saying that if people can disappear without any biometrics checks this puts “national security at risk and encourages criminal trafficking gangs”.
The Home Office claimed much of the report was now “historic character and the criticisms identified reflect processes and procedures not now followed under the new operation”.
But Neal rejected this, highlighting examples of practices continuing even in May.
The Channel 4 investigation also claims evidence from documents filed with authorities suggests the US hedge fund Sunak co-founded managed funds in tax havens including the Cayman Islands and compensated partners with assets in those tax havens.
The programme asked Sunak whether he earned assets offshore and, if so, what happened to them. He did not deny that he received assets in tax havens. But he said any assets he had were subject to US tax which was paid in full.
A Channel 4 News investigation has raised new questions about Rishi Sunak’s personal fortune after the programme found evidence suggesting that he and other partners in his former hedge fund were paid with assets in tax havens.
A profile of the prime ministerial candidate, to be broadcast from 7pm, also reveals he never received a scholarship to Winchester College in Hampshire - contrary to claims repeatedly made by his parliamentary supporters in recent weeks. And it reveals how his multi-million pound property portfolio was kickstarted by a £105,000 interest-free loan from his parents helping him to buy his first flat in Kensington, West London, aged 21.
Sunak’s campaign team told the programme: “Rishi is the product of a lot of hard work, kindness and sacrifice.
“His father was a GP who worked and his mother was a pharmacist, and he used to help out on the weekends.
“They both worked all hours to ensure they could give their children the best education they could because they value that above all else. “He is dedicated to this country because of the opportunity it gave to him, his parents and his grandparents who moved here for a better life.”
Sunak says he is a practising Hindu and those are his roots and what drives him is this country welcoming his family 60 years ago.
And that concludes the LBC interview.
Updated
Sunak said he would bring an ethics adviser back and would bring Lord Geidt back but he hasn’t had a conversation with him about that prospect yet.
When asked about his lack of popularity with Tory members and accusations of being a backstabber, Sunak replied:
“I worked closely with the PM for two and a bit years. I am proud of many things we have achieved.
“I am sorry I had to resign.
“Now I am looking forward and I believe I can bring change.
“It got to a point when enough is enough.
“Everyone saw with the Chris Pincher situation and the economy.”
On why he registered the domain name Ready for Rishi back in December, he said “I didnt do that, people register trade names all the time.”
On whether he has struggled for money, the former chancellor reverted back to his earlier anecdote about doing the books at his mother’s chemist.
On his environmental plans, Sunak says “windfarms onshore are tricky, but windfarms offshore” have been found to save money.
When asked if he has ever opened funds in an offshore tax haven, Sunak replied “No.”
Sunak says Tories must 'make Rwanda policy work' to gain control of borders
Sunak, who voted for Brexit, says the Tories have to “make our Rwanda policy work”.
“We do need to have control of our borders. When my grandparents came over, it was because the government decided they should come here. “At the same time we welcome the best and the brightest, we [need] to get a control of our borders. “The Rwanda policy gives us the opportunity to solve that.”
Updated
Again quoting Thatcher’s values, Sunak said “its reasonable and right to get our borrowing and debt down” following the impact of the pandemic on the UK’s finances.
Sunak’s other big carrot is Financial Services reforms, citing an example of “reforming rules on insurance companies, we can unlock tens of billions of pounds out of these companies and invest it around the country in people’s livelihoods.”
Sunak said the top 10% of businesses should burden the corporation tax raise.
He is arguing the 25% level is still the lowest rate compared to France, Italy, US, Japan and he will cut taxes for business investment.
Sunak has talked about his aim for long-term growth, citing “freeports for examples, attracting jobs and investment, which we couldn’t do within the EU.”
Rishi Sunak says he is 'common sense' Thatcherite
Sunak describes his economic plan as “common sense Thatcherism” despite wanting to raise corporation tax for businesses with the exception of smaller firms.
Updated
Sunak added: “My mum was a chemist, that’s where I worked as a kid.
“I did a lot of the books to make sure we made payroll every month,. Its quite a conservatives value, living within our means.
“Debt and borrowing is not a good thing, we should try and avoid it.”
Asked about the impact of borrowing £30bn for unfunded tax cuts, the former chancellor said “it would be inflationary” and a “huge borrowing spree would only make it worse”.
Speaking on Andrew Marr’s show on LBC, Rishi Sunak reiterates his stance that “if you look at all polling evidence, its pretty clear that I am the best person to defeat Sir Keir Starmer” now there are two candidates remaining.
When asked if Liz Truss is chosen the party is heading towards defeat to Labour, Sunak said “That’s what the evidence we have today shows”.
YouGov poll suggests Truss on course to beat Sunak because Tory members view her as much more honest
YouGov has published a new poll of Conservative party members which will be read with elation in the Liz Truss camp.
It suggests Truss is on course to beat Rishi Sunak by 62% to 38%.
That’s the sort of lead that is near impossible to overhaul in a relatively short campaign. The polling was carried out yesterday and today and Truss’s lead is slightly bigger than it was in the last YouGov poll of party members, carried out on Monday and Tuesday.
(YouGov presented those figures as Truss ahead of Sunak by 54% to 35%. But those figures did not include don’t knows, who have been excluded from the headline figures given today. And an exact comparision is hard as respondents to the first poll could only reply Truss, Sunak or don’t know, while the new one included a ‘will not vote’ option, according to the data tables.
For the record, the figures are the start of the week were: Sunak 35%, Truss 54%, DK 10%. Now they are: Sunak 31%, Truss 49%, DK 15%, won’t vote 6%. In proportional term, Truss’s lead is still higher than it was.)
Our first Tory members poll since the final two candidates were decided shows Liz Truss with a 24pt lead over Rishi Sunak for next leader
— YouGov (@YouGov) July 21, 2022
Liz Truss: 62%
Rishi Sunak: 38%https://t.co/yiCUlg15cN pic.twitter.com/7bqcHIrXGo
What is much worse for Sunak is what the poll suggests about how he is seen by party members.
Some 42% of them think he would be a poor leader, the polling suggests. For Truss, the figure is just 31%.
Tory members are more likely to think Liz Truss would make a good leader than Rishi Sunak
— YouGov (@YouGov) July 21, 2022
Liz Truss: 62% good leader / 31% bad leader
Rishi Sunak: 50% / 42%https://t.co/yiCUlg15cN pic.twitter.com/CcuLkk5f5m
Most damning of all, by a margin of three to one Tory members think Truss can be trusted to tell the truth. But, with Sunak, the 48% who say he can be trusted to tell the truth is not that much higher than the 40% who say he cannot be trusted to tell the truth.
This is surprising because Truss and Sunak are both regarded at Westminster as being considerably more honest than Boris Johnson. Sunak’s response to the revelations about his wife’s non-dom status probably damaged his reputation for integrity - his initial response was highly misleading - but Truss has also been accused of misrespresenting aspects of her past, in particular her schooling.
Four in ten Tory members say Rishi Sunak cannot be trusted to tell the truth
— YouGov (@YouGov) July 21, 2022
Rishi Sunak: 48% can be trusted / 40% can't be trusted
Liz Truss: 63% / 18%https://t.co/yiCUlg15cN pic.twitter.com/7wXPVnppTT
Separate polling from YouGov suggests personality traits like honesty will be a key factors for Tory members when they choose their new leader.
That’s all from me for this evening. My colleague Nadeem Badshah is taking over now.
Updated
Treasury says estimated cost of UK's Brexit divorce bill from EU has risen by £5bn to £42.5bn
The UK’s Brexit divorce bill could soar to £42.5bn after the Treasury increased its estimate of the payments owed to the European Union by more than £5bn, PA Media reports. PA says:
Simon Clarke, the chief secretary to the Treasury, blamed rising interest rates affecting EU pension obligations for the increasing cost.
Originally the government said the divorce bill - the amount owed to the EU by the UK to cover commitments made while the UK was a member - would be between £35bn and £39bn.
The Treasury’s latest estimate put the figure at £42.5bn - up from £37.3bn a year ago.
That is a rise of £5.2bn.
In a written ministerial statement, Clarke said the rise was primarily down to the UK’s obligations for EU pensions.
“The primary drivers are the latest discount rates and inflation assumptions, which are centrally set by the Government for valuing long-term liabilities,” he added.
Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, has described the report published earlier today from the borders watchdog (see 11.05am) as “damning”. She said:
This report is a truly damning indictment of a Conservative government which has badly lost control of border security.
It is flabbergasting that ministers haven’t made sure basic fingerprints and biometrics are being taken from everyone who arrives. When people can arrive and disappear without any biometric checks that puts national security at risk and encourages criminal trafficking gangs.
The inspector has said the Home Office response to small boat crossings is ‘ineffective and inefficient, exposing gaps in security procedures and leaving vulnerable migrants at risk’.
This is the third highly critical report on the chaos in the government’s border operations in a week following yesterday’s independent review and the cross party committee report on Monday. Where is the home secretary? It’s a total disgrace that she has refused to meet the inspector, tried to bury his report, and is now in hiding. The Conservatives are clearly completely unable to govern and failing to function.
Truss's tax allowance plan shows she wants to take women 'back to the 1950s', Labour says
The Labour MP Stella Creasy has accused Liz Truss of wanting to take women “back to the 1950s” with her transferable tax allowance plan. (See 4.26pm.) Creasy told PA Media:
Families across this country are crying out for affordable childcare so that they don’t have to choose between their career and their kids – instead of helping them and investing in provision, Liz Truss seems to think taxes should be used to make women stay home instead.
It shows you this Tory party wants to take Britain back to the 1950s, not help everyone thrive in the 2020s.
Updated
Truss says she wants to reform tax allowances ahead of next year's budget to help stay-at-home carers
Liz Truss, the foreign secretary and Tory leadership candidate, has said that if she becomes prime minister she will order an immediate review into treating households as single tax entities.
She says she would like to change the rules in time for next year’s budget to allow couples with young children, or other caring responsibilties, to transfer in full their personal tax allowances to the non-working partner.
According to one estimate, this could be worth up to around £2,500 for some families. The proposal would amount to an extensive of a much more modest transferable tax allowance plan introduced by David Cameron’s government worth only one tenth as much.
Truss said:
Hardworking families are the bedrock of a stable society, and one of my top priorities as prime minister would be easing the tax burden on families. They don’t just look after themselves but also build communities, charities and even businesses
I want to make sure that our tax system works for them. We will review the taxation of families to ensure people aren’t penalised for taking time out to care for their children or elderly relatives.
According to Truss’s campaign, the plan would bring the UK into line with the approach used in Germany and the US. In a briefing the campaign said:
In the UK, there is estimated to be £1 trillion worth of behind the scenes caring contributions, which lessen the burden on the public purse. Truss believes that it is only right to support these individuals.
With a view of implementing the reform through an “opt in’’ system in next year’s budget, Truss would look to treat households as a single tax entity and consider the transfer of personal allowances within the households.
This approach would reflect models used in Germany and the United States, and ensure Britain no longer imposes the highest tax burden on families among OECD countries.
Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss have been urged to make ratification of associate membership of the EU’s flagship Horizon Europe science and research programme a priority if they become prime minister.
The ratification has been put on ice because of the UK’s failure to implement the withdrawal agreement in Northern Ireland and is in jeopardy if Truss is selected to lead the Conservative party as she is the author of new laws to tear up the Northern Ireland protocol.
In a letter to both candidates, the Royal Society, which represents science and engineering academia in the UK, said the “next leader of the Conservative party should commit to ensuring the UK remains a world leader in research, development and innovation”. It has also asked the government to push investment to 3% of GDP in R&D.
Updated
UK cost-of-living package with free West End tickets not helping, say charities
This morning Boris Johnson attended a roundtable meeting with business leaders to promote an initiative under which some retailers are offering new or extended discount offers. It is part of the Help for Households scheme. “This won’t solve the issue overnight but it’s yet another weapon in our arsenal as we fight back against scourge of rising prices and inflation,” Johnson said.
As Mark Sweney and Kalyeena Makortoff report, poverty campaigners argue that families struggling with the cost of living need a lot more help than this.
Updated
Shailesh Vara, the new Northern Ireland secretary, has been visiting Lisburn in Northern Ireland today. Asked who he was backing for the Tory leadership, he refused to say, but he added: “Whoever is the ultimate winner will, I’m sure, serve the United Kingdom very well.”
Updated
Public spending ultimately likely to be cut under Truss's tax plans, says Institute for Fiscal Studies
The Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank has published an assessment of the tax and spending policies of Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. It says we know a lot about Sunak’s plans, because he was chancellor until very recently, but that Truss’s intentions are quite different, and less clear.
It says that Truss’s plans ultimately imply public spending would be cut. It says:
[Truss’s plans] will mean higher borrowing or less public spending, or some combination. Without spending reductions, the tax promises would likely lead to the current fiscal rules being broken, and Ms Truss has hinted that the fiscal rules may change. In this context it is always important to remember that, whatever a chosen set of self-imposed fiscal rules might allow in the short term, in the end lower taxes do mean lower spending. A fresh spending review has indeed been promised, but without clarity on whether current plans will be adjusted up or down – apart from on defence, where Ms Truss has promised a £23bn budget increase by the end of the decade.
Truss has said she would hold a new spending review if she became PM, but she has not explicitly called for overall public spending to be cut. However Simon Clarke, the chief secretary to the Treasury and one of her main supporters, hinted yesterday that overall spending would fall when he said that under a new leader existing spending commitments should not be regarded as “set in stone”.
The IFS also suggests that Truss’s proposed tax cuts could be inflationary. She claimed the opposite on the Today programme this morning. (See 10.38am.) But the IFS says:
While tax cuts can promote economic growth, none of the tax cuts proposed by any of the candidates during the Conservative leadership contest would do this enough to pay for themselves.
To the extent that tax cuts were indeed financed by additional government borrowing, rather than spending reductions, they would inject additional demand into the economy and further increase inflationary pressures. It is difficult, though, to say by how much, and this would vary depending on the specific package of tax cuts. Such a fiscal loosening might be met by a tightening of monetary policy, ie the Bank of England increasing interest rates further and/or more quickly than they otherwise would. Were that to happen, the net effect would involve some redistribution away from those exposed to interest rate rises to those benefiting from the package of tax cuts.
Updated
Sunak would not cut taxes before autumn 2023, in clear divide with Truss
Rishi Sunak would not cut personal taxes until at least autumn 2023 to avoid fuelling inflation, the Guardian understands. My colleague Jessica Elgot has the story here.
Public inquiry into UK Covid-19 response opens
Ministers will have a year to prepare before cross-examination at the UK’s Covid-19 public inquiry, its chair, Heather Hallett, announced, as she opened what is likely to be one of the broadest statutory investigations in the country’s history. My colleague Robert Booth has the story here.
And here is the document setting out in detail how the inquiry will run, including the opening statement in full from Hallett.
Updated
Johnson publishes 2,500-word summary of his government's achievements, claiming he's left NHS 'on surer footing'
All prime ministers are obsessed with their legacy, and as they step down they like to think that they leave behind a substantial set of achievements, which they hope might be recognised by posterity even if contemporary critics, naysayers and doomsters are too foolish to see how much good they have done for the country.
Boris Johnson is no exception. But, in what may be a first, he has today released a written ministerial statement, under the heading “Government Delivery”, boasting about everything that he has done.
Among other things, Johnson claims that he has left the streets “safer”, put the NHS “on a surer footing” and made schools “better”. He also claims that the broken social care system is now “finally being fixed”.
There is plenty more - the whole statement runs to 2,555 words. But it is, of course, highly partial, and it wouldn’t be hard to match it with a far less flattering assessment.
Liam Fox, the former international trade secretary who is supporting Rishi Sunak for the Tory leadership, has accused Liz Truss of “promising things that are too good to be true” in an interview with GB News.
As Margaret Thatcher said, tax cuts must be earnt. Instead of promising things that are too good to be true, @RishiSunak has outlined a sound economic plan, being honest about the challenges we face. That is another trait of strong leadership. @GBNews #ReadyforRishi #Ready4Rishi pic.twitter.com/oBqckj3HnE
— Dr Liam Fox MP (@LiamFox) July 21, 2022
Photograph: Peter Nicholls/Reuters
Nicky Morgan, the former culture secretary, has been appointed to head the UK Commission on Covid Commemoration, the Cabinet Office has announced.
The commission will “recommend ways in which the nation can remember the loved ones who perished, honour the heroism of those who have saved lives and the courage of frontline workers who have kept our country going, celebrate the genius of those who created the vaccines, and commemorate the small acts of kindness and the daily sacrifice of millions who stayed at home”.
Liverpool council votes to axe elected city mayor post
The role of elected mayor is to be scrapped in Liverpool – despite coming out as the favourite option in a consultation of city residents, PA Media reports. PA says:
At a meeting on Wednesday, the council voted to remove the role of city mayor and replace it with a council leader and cabinet executive.
The change will come in next May when an all-out election is held.
The role of elected city mayor was created in 2012 and held by Joe Anderson until he decided not to stand for re-election last year after his arrest as part of a fraud investigation.
It is currently held by Labour’s Joanne Anderson, no relation to her predecessor, who became the first black female mayor last May.
As well as having an elected city mayor, Liverpool also has a lord mayor and metro-mayor of the Liverpool city region, Steve Rotheram.
The council held a consultation with residents to ask whether they would prefer the city to be run by an elected mayor, a committee or a council leader with cabinet.
The consultation was responded to by 11,519 people, which the meeting heard is about 4% of the electorate.
Of those who responded, 40.9% wanted to keep the role of mayor, 32.9% preferred a committee model and 23.6% opted for council leader.
Updated
Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader who is supporting Liz Truss for the leadership, took a swipe at Rishi Sunak’s record in the Treasury when he was on ITV’s Good Morning Britain earlier. Referrring to the Covid bailout packages, he said:
There we were, chucking money out of the Treasury, and some of it was spent rather badly, actually.
The government will send hundreds of drones and anti-tank weapons and scores of artillery guns to Ukraine over the coming weeks to help fend off the Russian invasion, PA Media reports. PA says:
Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, announced that counter-battery radar systems and more than 50,000 rounds of ammunition for Ukraine’s existing Soviet-era artillery will follow.
The Ministry of Defence said the weaponry will help bolster Ukraine’s ability to defend against Vladimir Putin’s “indiscriminate” use of artillery.
More than 20 M109 155mm self-propelled guns and 36 L119 105mm artillery guns will be arriving shortly, the MoD added.
In excess of 1,600 anti-tank weapons and hundreds of loitering aerial munitions will also be sent.
The Commons privileges committee has already asked Downing Street to provide a large tranche of evidence relevant to its inquiry into whether Boris Johnson lied to MPs about Partygate. At the lobby briefing this morning the PM’s spokeperson was unable to say when No 10 would respond. He told reporters:
As with previous letters from the committee, we will need to consider them and then set our response, this is a formal parliamentary process.
Asked if Johnson intended to cooperate with the inquiry, the spokesperson said:
We have said we will assist the committee in their work but beyond that I will have to repeat again it will need to wait for the formal response.
Updated
Updated
Chris Giles, the Financial Times’ economics editor, has posted a good thread on Twitter exploring the economic argument set out by Liz Truss in her Today interview this morning. (See 10.38am.) It starts here.
TRUSSONOMICS: a thread
— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) July 21, 2022
In her interview on @BBCr4today, Liz Truss made 3 economic propositions
1) Her tax cuts will decrease inflation
2) Tax cuts boost growth and prevent recession
3) Tax cuts increase government revenues
It would be great if these were true
1/
And here are his conclusions.
To sum up.
— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) July 21, 2022
For Trussonomics to work, there needs to be lots of spare capacity at a time of low unemployment and record job vacancies....and for the supply effects of tax changes to outweigh the demand effects
Highly unlikely (but anything is possible)
11/
What is definite is that the UK's economic institutions do not believe the conditions exist for these three propositions to be true
— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) July 21, 2022
So Trussonomics is radical. It would involve changing the economic institutions for the experiment to be tried
12/
In an interview with GB News, Liz Truss was asked if she would keep the expensive wallpaper in the Downing Street flat, installed as part of Boris Johnson’s controversial refurbishment, if she became PM. In what is being seen by some as a dig at Johnson, she replied:
I’m not going to have the time to be thinking about the wallpaper in No 10, because we’ve only got two years until the general election – we need to hit the ground running.
Updated
“You cannot hope to bribe or twist, thank God! the British journalist,” Humbert Wolfe wrote.
But it’s always worth a try - and at the press gallery in the Commons the Rishi Sunak campaign have been distributing snack boxes for reporters, with a Twix, a can of Sprite and some suncream. A Twix and a Sprite are what Sunak has before he delivers a speech, we’re told.
Updated
In her Today interview Liz Truss would not accept that she was seeking to imitate Margaret Thatcher, insisting she was her own person. (See 10.38am.) But, in an article he has written for the Daily Telegraph, Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor and Truss’s rival for the Tory leadership, described himself as Thatcherite four times. He said:
My values are Thatcherite. I believe in hard work, family and integrity. I am a Thatcherite, I am running as a Thatcherite and I will govern as a Thatcherite.
I believe in national sovereignty. Strong borders – tight control of both legal and illegal immigration. The primacy of economic growth. That this can only be achieved on a foundation of low inflation and sound public finances. And the best way to achieve economic growth is cutting taxes and bureaucracy, and boosting private sector investment and innovation. I believe that crime is an evil that we tolerate far too high levels of.
Sunak said in his article he was sure that Truss shared “some of these values” too, but he argued that he was the candidate most likely to beat Labour at the next election.
Truss struggling to win support of Scottish Tories who fear she's too close to Johnson
Liz Truss is struggling to win over Scottish Tories, as many fear that a “Boris continuity candidate” will have precisely the same effect that Johnson has done on their ratings.
Amid Partygate allegations, the Scottish Tories plunged to their worst electoral result in a decade in May’s council elections.
Party sources have briefed that Truss, despite her Paisley upbringing and claims to be a “child of the union”, is “too close to Boris”.
Only one MSP – Oliver Mundell – has so far declared his support for her, while former leader Ruth Davidson has written in the Telegraph this morning supporting Rishi Sunak, saying: “Now is not the time to gamble with the nation’s bank balance.”
Both Truss and Sunak have maintained the Downing Street line that they would not grant Holyrood the powers needed to hold a legal referendum.
This morning, the supreme court confirmed that it plans to hear the case on whether the Scottish parliament can hold a legal referendum without permission from Westminster on 11 and 12 October, just after the SNP’s annual conference.
Updated
Home Office's response to growing number of people arriving in small boats 'poor', says borders watchdog
The Home Office’s response to the surge in people arriving in small boats across the English Channel is “poor” and the “system is overwhelmed”, a major report by the borders watchdog has said.
In a foreword to the report, David Neal, the independent chief inspector of borders and immigration, said:
The number of small boat crossings in the Channel has reached such a level that it has been described as a crisis and the number one priority for the Home Office.
The volume is unprecedented, and on some days the system is clearly overwhelmed.
The Home Office’s performance in delivering an effective and efficient response to the challenge posed by the increasing volume of migrant arrivals via small boats is poor.
In my judgment, this arises principally from a refusal to transition from an emergency response to what has rapidly become steady state, or business as usual. This refusal permeates every aspect of the Home Office’s response.
Systems, processes and resourcing pathways, which months into the crisis should be routine, codified, auditable and familiar, have been delivered at ‘best effort’. This is not good enough.
Data, the lifeblood of decision-making, is inexcusably awful. Equipment to carry out security checks is often first generation and unreliable.
Extreme operational conditions, where resources are stretched, will inevitably lead to some degradation in data. Staff on the ground are doing their very best, but they are tired.
Here are three journalists and commentators on Liz Truss’s Today interview.
From Paul Mason, the former Newsnight economics editor
If Truss makes good her plan to rip up 20 years of Treasury/Bank of England orthodoxy she will have to scrap the OBR - no way they will sign off the fantasy economics she's spouting on #r4today
— Paul Mason (@paulmasonnews) July 21, 2022
From Ian Birrell, a former deputy editor of the Independent
If Liz Truss is going to be honest with people, as she keeps saying, shouldn’t she admit her original warnings about the economic damage from Brexit were right?
— Ian Birrell (@ianbirrell) July 21, 2022
From Kevin Maguire, the Daily Mirror columnist
The Liz Truss criticising 20 years of economic policy will be furious when she realises her party was in office for a dozen of them and she was a Minister for much of that period.
— Kevin Maguire (@Kevin_Maguire) July 21, 2022
Record rise in UK borrowing costs puts annual deficit on course to top £100bn
A record surge in Britain’s borrowing costs in June, pushed up by soaring inflation, has put the government’s spending deficit on course to reach more than £100bn this year, almost double its pre-pandemic level, my colleague Phillip Inman reports.
Truss claims her tax cuts would bring inflation down
Back to Liz Truss, and here is a summary of the main points from her interview with Nick Robinson on the Today programme.
- Truss claimed that “economic orthodoxy” followed by governments over the past 20 years has failed to deliver proper economic growth. (See 9.38am.) The Labour party is also saying that the big problem over the past 12 years has been the UK’s relatively poor performance on growth, although its analysis of why growth has been so weak is not the same as Truss’s. She blamed ideas backed by the Treasury and the Financial Times. Chris Giles, the FT’s economics editor, says he was surprised to learn he’s been running the country – not Truss and her colleagues.
According to @trussliz, the @FinancialTimes has been running UK economic policy over the past 20 years and tax cuts are deflationary
— Chris Giles (@ChrisGiles_) July 21, 2022
.... both were news to me
- Truss claimed her tax cuts would bring down inflation. She said: “My tax cuts will decrease inflation.” When it was put to her that most leading economists think they would be inflationary, she cited Patrick Minford as an economist who supports her view.
- She claimed that the tax increases introduced by Rishi Sunak as chancellor made the UK an international outlier, because no other countries were raising taxes in the current international climate.
- She rejected claims that her plan to cut taxes was a gamble, because there was a risk tax cuts could leave the government without the income it would need for public services. She said:
What is a gamble is what we’re doing at the moment. What is the gamble is what we’re doing at the moment because, currently, the United Kingdom is projected to head for a recession. So we need to do something different in order to get growth going, in order to put money in people’s pockets.
- She said she was committed to the extra spending for the NHS promised by Boris Johnson, even though she was also planning to get rid of the health and social care levy that would have funded some of it.
- She said she would have liked Boris Johnson to carry on as prime minister. Asked if he should have stayed, despite his flaws, she said:
I wanted Boris to carry on as prime minister. I think he did a fantastic job with the 2019 election, winning us a massive majority. He delivered Brexit, he delivered the vaccines.
Regrettably, we got to a position where he didn’t command the support of our parliamentary party.
My judgment was that he admitted that he had made a mistake, or several mistakes, over the course of the last year, but the positive side of the balance sheet was extremely positive.
- She denied that she was modelling herself on Margaret Thatcher. Asked about claims she copies Thatcher’s photo opportunities, she said: “I am my own person.”
- She ruled out sending British troops to defend Ukraine. She said:
We are doing all we can to support Ukraine. We’ve led the international coalition on sending weapons, we’re putting the sanctions in place. But I do not support the direct involvement of UK troops.
- She said she was “wrong” to vote for remain in 2016. She said:
I fully embraced the choice that the people of Britain have made. I was wrong and I am prepared to admit I was wrong. Some of the portents of doom didn’t happen and instead we have actually unleashed new opportunities.
- She claimed she was someone with “the toughness, the grit” to take on the Whitehall machine and drive through change.
Updated
Commons privileges committee says Johnson could face recall election if Partygate inquiry were to lead to 10-day suspension
The first report from the Commons privileges committee relating to its inquiry into whether Boris Johnson lied to MPs about Partygate is out – and some of its contents will be worrying for Downing Street.
The committee, which is chaired by the Labour MP Harriet Harman, has not even started the main work on its investigation, but it has published a 39-page report setting out how it will proceed. This shows that the MPs are being exceptionally thorough – which is not surprising because an inquiry of this kind is unprecedented in modern times.
Here are the main points.
- The committee will seek to take evidence from Johnson and others in public in the autumn. Previously it had said there would be oral hearings, but it had not confirmed that these would be in public.
- Johnson and other witnesses giving oral evidence will have to give evidence on oath.
- Johnson could face a recall petition, which could lead to a byelection in his constituency, if the committee were to recommend a lengthy suspension from parliament as a punishment. If an MP gets suspended from the Commons for 10 sitting days or more following a recommendation from the standards committee, the provisions of the Recall of MPs Act can apply. There was some doubt as to whether the same rule would apply if the privileges committee recommended a 10-day suspension, but the committee says legal advice says it does. It says:
Among the documents published today is a formal determination from Commons Speaker Rt Hon Sir Lindsay Hoyle MP, following independent legal advice, regarding the interpretation of the Recall of MPs Act 2015 in the hypothetical event that the privileges committee were to recommend the sanction of suspension.
The Speaker has ruled that the committee of privileges is a committee concerned with the standards of conduct of individual MPs, and therefore any suspension of the requisite length (10 sitting days or 14 calendar days) following on from a report from that committee will attract the provisions of the Recall of MPs Act.
- The committee says that, even if Johnson did not intentionally lie to MPs about Partygate, he could still be found to have committed a contempt of parliament. It says:
The report also includes a paper from the clerk of the journals, discussing the definition of a contempt in the context of the committee’s inquiry. The committee agrees with the clerk of the journals that the focus of the house’s jurisdiction is on whether or not an action or omission obstructs or impedes or has a tendency to obstruct or impede the functioning of the house, with the consequence that, looking at contempt in broad terms, intention is not necessary for a contempt to be committed. The clerk’s memo explains that while “much of the commentary has focussed on whether Mr Johnson “deliberately” or “knowingly” misled the Committee”, “this wording is not in the motion”.
In her paper, the clerk of the journals adds: “It is for the committee and the house to determine whether a contempt has occurred and the intention of the contemnor is not relevant to making that decision. Intent has been considered relevant when a committee has been considering whether or not there should be penalties for a contempt, or the severity of those penalties”; her paper gives examples of previous cases in which committees have considered intent in the course of assessing the seriousness of the behaviour concerned.
This ruling is bad for Johnson because he has already admitted that some of the comments he made to MPs about Partygate were misleading. The committee is now saying that that could have been a contempt of parliament, even if there was no intention to deceive.
But the committee is only likely to recommend a serious punishment, such as suspension from the Commons, if it concludes the contempt was intentional.
- The committee says it will apply the “balance of probabilities” standard of proof when deciding whether or not Johnson lied to MPs.
- It confirms that procedures will be in place to allow whistleblowers to give evidence to the committee without their identity being revealed.
Updated
Truss claims 'economic orthodoxy' followed by governnments over past 20 years has failed to deliver proper growth
Good morning. Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, is now favourite in the contest to be next Tory leader and prime minister and she has just given her first proper broadcast interview of the campaign, to Nick Robinson on the Today programme.
The main division between Truss and Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor and the only other candidate left in the Tory leadership contest, is that Truss is demanding huge, immediate tax cuts now. She says they are needed to jumpstart the economy and avoid recession. Sunak says tax cuts now would be inflationary, and that they should only be implemented when affordable.
What was interesting about Truss’s interview is that she doubled down on her argument, claiming that her approach was needed because the economic orthodoxy accepted by governments of both parties over the past 20 years was wrong. She told Robinson:
The fact is we’ve had economic policy – not just under this government, for the past two decades – there’s been a consensus on our economic policy, and it hasn’t delivered economic growth ....
We have had a consensus of the Treasury, of economists, of the Financial Times, of other outlets, peddling a particular type of economic policy for the last 20 years. And it hasn’t delivered growth ...
What I know about the Treasury from having worked there is they do have an economic orthodoxy and they do resist change. And what people in Britain desperately need now is change.
Truss accepted that her plans for tax cuts would cost roughly £38bn a year. But she said they were affordable within the government’s current fiscal rules and, when Robinson challenged her to name a single economist who did not think tax cuts now would be inflationary, she cited one, Patrick Minford. She said she agreed with Minford’s argument, which is that tax cuts would be good for the supply side of the economy (people would have more incentive to work, or set up a business), and that this would reduce inflation.
In her attack on Treasury thinking, Truss was reflecting what Boris Johnson told MPs yesterday as he ended PMQs with advice for his successor.
But she also seems to be following another economic thinker less popular in Tory circles. Robinson put it to her that, if she favoured a big increase in borrowing to revive the economy, she should have voted for Jeremy Corbyn. Truss did not address his point directly, but last night John McDonnell, Corbyn’s shadow chancellor, suggested he agreed with the analysis. He told ITV’s Peston show:
I was then told this idea of borrowing to grow the economy then let it pay for itself is ludicrous ... What have we just heard [from the Tory leadership contest is] let’s borrow to grow the economy.
It’s extraordinary they’re repeating my agenda but at the same time, doing it in a way which, to be frank, I think is completely unrelated to the real world we’re living in which is the immediate crisis of the cost of living and climate change.
There was a lot more in Truss’s Today interview. I will post a full summary shortly.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: The Office for National Statistics publishes the latest crime figures for England and Wales.
Morning: Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak hold a private hustings with Conservative councillors from the Local Government Association.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
Afternoon: Truss is expected to hold a campaign event outside London.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com
Updated
