Afternoon summary
Kemi Badenoch is the new Conservative party leader after defeating Robert Jenrick in a members’ vote, becoming the first Black leader of a major UK party and the fourth woman to lead the Tories. As Peter Walker reports, Badenoch took just over 56% of the 95,000 votes, in a poll that had a 73% turnout of eligible members. This amounts to the narrowest win of the four since the party changed its rules to allow party members the final say in contested leadership elections. Speaking after the announcement in central London, Badenoch, an MP since 2017, who was shadow housing secretary, said the Conservatives needed to face up to hard truths if they wanted to win back the support of voters after July’s catastrophic election result which cut their number of MPs to 121. “Our party is critical to the success of our country, but to be heard, we have to be honest,” she said. “Honest about the fact that we made mistakes, honest about the fact that we let standards slip. The time has come to tell the truth.” Here is Peter’s story.
Opinion polls suggest that the Conservatives would have been better off choosing someone like James Cleverly as leader rather than Badenoch, who is not popular with the public at large. (See 9.38am.) She is also someone whose main campaign theme was that the state should be doing less, but who has become leader at a time when the public want more and better services from the state, not fewer. The Tories are ruthless at getting rid of leaders who underperform and there are many at Westminster who think this won’t be the last Conservative leadership contest before the election. But Badenoch has spark and courage, and her supporters are hoping she can turn things around.
Updated
Boris Johnson says Badenoch will being 'much needed zing and zap' to Tory party
Three of the five Conservative leaders who served as PM in the last parliament have posted messages on X congratulating Kemi Badenoch.
Rishi Sunak says:
Congratulations to @KemiBadenoch on being elected @Conservatives party leader.
I know that she will be a superb leader of our great party. She will renew our party, stand up for Conservative values, and take the fight to Labour.
Let’s unite behind her.
Boris Johnson says:
Congratulations to Kemi on her outstanding victory
She brings a much needed zing and zap to the Conservative Party
This sleaze-ridden Labour government has no ideas or agenda beyond the old tax and spend socialism
They are far more vulnerable than the parliamentary maths might suggest Kemi has exactly the right courage and clarity to expose Starmer’s failings
She is now ideally placed to flip them over and take the Tories to victory at the next election
I will be giving her my full support and call on all Conservatives to do the same
And David Cameron says:
Many congratulations @KemiBadenoch on being elected Leader of the @Conservatives. As the last Conservative Leader of the Opposition, I know all too well that it can be one of the toughest jobs in British politics. It is now time for the Party to renew and prove ourselves to the British people. Kemi will have my full support as she starts that crucial work. I also pay tribute to @RishiSunak and thank him for his service - to the Party and to the country. He has been an exemplary leader in challenging times. I wish him well with all he goes on to do in the future.
Theresa May, who does not tweet much, has not posted anything. And Liz Truss has not posted anything about Kemi Badenoch either. But just before the result was announced, she did tweet a link to the book extracts where she blames not just Rishi Sunak, but all the MPs who backed him (including Badenoch presumably) for the election defeat. (See 10.12am.)
My colleague Peter Walker has written an article with five things you might not know about Kemi Badenoch.
He starts by saying that, although she constantly describes herself as an engineer, that does not necessarily mean she would be the best person to build a bridge or to take apart an engineer. She is a computing expert, a systems engineer. In the 2006 Observer interview mentioned earlier (see 1.19pm) she is described as a systems analyst.
Leadership contests are about the only time when the Conservative party discloses membership figures. Robert Colvile, director of the Centre for Policy Studies, a Tory thinktank, says Kemi Badenoch should be worried about the figures out today.
To understand why @KemiBadenoch needs to prioritise rebuilding the Tory membership/movement, just look at the number of votes cast:
2001 - 256,857 (IDS v Ken)
2005 - 198,840 (Dave v DD)
2019 - 138,809 (Boris v Hunt)
2022 - 141,725 (Liz v Rishi)
2024 - 95,849 (Kemi v Jenrick)
Yes, there’s lower turnout this time - disgruntled centrists, or people caring less about not electing a PM. But pool of voters has shrunk from 172,414 to 131,660 in just two years - 40k down!
Green party urges Badenoch to abandon her 'divisive' politics
The Green party has urged the new Conservative party leader, Kemi Badenoch, to abandon some of the “divisive” views she has previously expressed. In a statement on her election, Adrian Ramsay, the Green party’s co-leader, said:
It matters who leads opposition parties and how they play their part in holding the government to account - that’s a critical part of our democracy.
Badenoch’s track record doesn’t fill me with confidence she will do this in a way that benefits the majority in this country, rather than just the super-rich. Hinting at scrapping the NHS, stating current maternity pay is ‘excessive’, not believing in net zero - none of these are great places to start.
I would urge her to use this new found influence to support the Conservatives in moving towards a less divisive style of politics.
A reader asks:
How long is it before letters of no confidence from Tory MP’s can go in?
In theory, they could start arriving this afternoon. Graham Brady has just published Kingmaker, a book about his time as chair of the 1922 Committee during the last parliament which is a lot more revealing than the average political memoir and full of good material about the 1922 no confidence vote process. He says that after Boris Johnson became leader the first two letters calling for a no confidence vote arrived “very early”.
In practice, there is no precedent for a no confidence vote taking place less than a year after a leadership contest. Under the rules, if a leader wins a no confidence vote, another one is not meant to be allowed for at least another 12 months, and so arguably an early one would be a breach of this rule. But no one knows for sure because the 1922 Committee don’t publish their rules and, as Brady explains in his book, they can change them whenever they want anyway. Referring to the executive committee of the 1922 Committee, and how it in effect makes up the rules as it goes along, he says:
This decision-making body has no constitution to tie it in procedural knots. Instead, it is bound only by convention and what the members will accept.
This being the Conservative party, some of them are, of course, thinking about the next leadership election. In an interview with Sky News John Hayes, a leading Robert Jenrick supporter, would only say that Jenrick should give up his leadership ambitions “for the time being” when asked if his hopes of leading the party were over. When pressed, Hayes indicated that of course he wanted the party to unite, but that he was just making a point about the future always being uncertain.
“For the time being”
— Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) November 2, 2024
I question senior Tory right wing MP John Hayes on whether Robert Jenrick should permanently abandon his leadership ambitions
Listen: pic.twitter.com/63zpWMxn56
Robert Jenrick has urged the Conservative party to unite behind Kemi Badenoch. He posted this on social media.
Congratulations to @KemiBadenoch.
Thank you to everyone who supported my vision for a Conservative Party rooted in the common ground of British politics.
It’s now time for the @conservatives to unite behind Kemi and take the fight to this disastrous Labour Government.
There will be full coverage of Kemi Badenoch’s victory in the Observer tomorrow. In a post on Bluesky, Sunder Katwala, head of British Future, a thinktank focusing on race and identity issues, says Badenoch’s first published interview in a national paper may have been one in the Observer in 2006. She was one of several young Tories the paper spoke to about why the party was becoming cool again under David Cameron. In it she spoke about her support for civil liberties and said she was “not one of those Conservatives who thinks every problem in the country is down to Blair and the Labour party”.
Katwala also says this YouTube video of a speech Badenoch gave at TedX Euston in 2011 gives a good insight into what drew her into politics.
In a post on social media this morning Steve Barclay, who held a series of cabinet posts and who is now shadow environment secretary, said he would not take a shadow cabinet post under the new leader, whether it was Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick.
I want to congratulate Kemi and Rob on their excellent campaigns over recent months.
After 9 years on the front bench, including the last 6 in the Cabinet, I have decided to return to the backbenches away from the constraints of front bench life and to have more time as a dad.
Jeremy Hunt, the shadow chancellor, and James Cleverly, the shadow home secretary (see 8.24am), have both also said they are stepping down.
Kemi Badenoch faces a challenge uniting her party, my colleague Pippa Crerar says.
Kemi Badenoch takes 53,806 votes to Robert Jenrick’s 41,318 on a turn out of 72.8%.
It means she becomes Tory leader with backing of just 41% of party members and 1/3rd of Tory MPs. It’s clear her first task will be uniting her fractured party.
And here is some more reaction to Kemi Badenoch’s victory from other parties.
From Liz Saville Roberts, the Plaid Cymru leader at Westminster
Wales wasn’t factored into Kemi Badenoch’s leadership campaign. She offered us nothing – no policies, no interest, and no recognition of her party’s collapse here. Instead, her campaign was riddled with blunders: she claimed maternity pay had gone too far, stigmatised autism, and even suggested civil servants should be locked up. It’s clear that the Conservatives’ problems in Wales are far beyond her reach.
From Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader
I congratulate Kemi Badenoch on her historic achievement as the first Black female leader of the Conservative party.
The first thing any new Tory leader should do is apologise to Scots for gambling with families’ savings, crashing the economy and sending bills soaring while putting party before country.
Yet with Badenoch already talking about cutting the maternity pay that is vital to young working families, it seems unlikely that the Tories have learned their lesson.
While Keir Starmer congratulated Kemi Badenoch on her victory (see 11.44am), the Labour party issued a more critical response on a statement from Ellie Reeves, the party chair. Reeves said:
Congratulations to Kemi Badenoch on being elected leader of the Conservative party. It’s been a long leadership election but sadly one thing is clear – the Conservatives have learned nothing since the British people resoundingly rejected them in July. It’s been a summer of yet more Conservative chaos and division.
They could have spent the past four months listening to the public, taking responsibility for the mess they made and changing their party. Instead, Kemi Badenoch’s election as leader shows they’re incapable of change.
SNP says Badenoch's victory 'has finalised Tories lurch to far right'
The SNP has said the election of Kemi Badenoch as Tory leader shows the party has embraced the far right. Keith Brown, the SNP’s deputy leader, said:
The election of Kemi Badenoch as leader has finalised the Tories’ lurch to the far right.
Whether it’s rolling back maternity pay or targetting the rights of minorities, Badenoch’s win demonstrates how out of touch the Tories are with people across Scotland.
The Tory party is now firmly dancing to the dangerous tune of Nigel Farage - it is essential that in Scotland Russell Findlay doesn’t dance along and instead stands up for Scotland’s inclusive and progressive values.
This is probably unfair. While Badenoch is certainly very rightwing, there is little in what she has said that would fully fit an academic definition of “far right”, such as Cas Mudde’s claim it is about, at the very least, opposing “fundamental elements of liberal democracy, most notably minority rights, rule of law and separation of powers”.
We have already quoted Keir Starmer’s response to Kemi Badenoch’s election as Conservative leader. (See 11.44am.) The Conservatives will only win back power by regaining votes from the Liberal Democrats and from Reform UK, but the leaders of those two parties have put out quite different statements about Badenoch’s victory.
Ed Davey, the Lib Dem leader, congratulated her. He said:
I’d like to congratulate Kemi Badenoch on being elected leader of the Conservative party. The election of the first Black leader of a major UK political party is a historic moment for the country.
Voters across the country believe her party is too divided, out-of-touch and unable to accept Conservative failures over the past years.
The Liberal Democrats will continue to offer the best opposition to the government and fight for a fair deal for Britain.
But Richard Tice, the Reform UK deputy leader, said:
Kemi Badenoch is another in a long line of Tory politicians who say one thing and do another.
Kemi Badenoch was front and centre of a government that failed Britain.
She said nothing while Rishi Sunak hit hard-working people with record immigration, the small boats crisis, the highest taxes for 60 years, record NHS waiting lists and sky-high crime.
Instead of standing up for Britain whilst in government, she stood up for her own career prospects and chauffeur-driven cars.
She has failed the British public before and she will fail them again as leader of the Conservative party.
Kemi Badenoch wants to have a new shadow cabinet in place before Tuesday, when the first shadow cabinet meeting under her leadership is due to take place, her team say. But they say she is not planning to announce any appointments today.
Tories change rules to make it harder for MPs to trigger no confidence vote in new leader
The Conservative 1922 Committee has changed the rules to make it harder for MPs to trigger a no confidence vote in the new leader. It used to be the case that, if 15% of MPs wrote in private to the 1922 Committee chair asking for a no confidence ballot, they had to hold one. That threshold has gone up to 33%, meaning 40 MPs would have to be fed up with Kemi Badenoch for a ballot to take place.
Bob Blackman, the 1922 Committee chair, said last month the threshold would be raised to at least 30%. In an interview with Christopher Hope from GB News, he has announced that the executive of the 1922 Committee settled on 33%. Hope says;
The Tories have made it harder to remove new leader Kemi Badenoch. Sir Bob Blackman, the chairman of the 1922 committee tells me for @GBNEWS that the threshold to trigger a vote of no confidence has been secretly increased from 15pc to 33 pc of the Parliamentary party. This means that 40 MPs will be needed to trigger a vote of no confidence in Badenoch, rather than 18 MPs under the old 15pc rule. The change was made at a private meeting of the 1922’s executive last Wednesday.
Badenoch tells Tories they need to be 'honest about fact we made mistakes'
For the record, here is the extract from Kemi Badenoch’s victory speech with her message for her party.
The task that stands before us is tough, but simple. Our first responsibility, as His Majesty’s loyal opposition, is to hold this Labour government to account.
Our second is no less important. It is to prepare over the course of the next few years for government, to ensure that by the time of the next election, we have not just a clear set of Conservative pledges that appeal to the British people, but a clear plan for how to implement them.
A clear plan to change this country by changing the way that government works. The prime minister is discovering all too late the perils of not having such a plan. That huge job begins today.
It will seek to involve all of our colleagues in parliament, in the Scottish parliament, the Senedd, our friends in Northern Ireland, as well as councillors and party members. But this is not just about the Conservative party. It is about the people we want to bring back to the Conservative party.
It is about the people we need to bring into the Conservative party. It is about what the Conservative party needs to be over the next five, ten and twenty years. Our party is critical to the success of our country. But to be heard, we have to be honest.
Honest about the fact that we made mistakes. Honest about the fact that we let standards slip. The time has come to tell the truth. The time has come to tell the truth, to stand up for our principles, to plan for our future, to reset our politics and our thinking, and to give our party and our country the new start that they deserve. It is time to get down to business. It is time to renew.
Badenoch used language like this throughout the leadership contest but, like all the other candidates, she was reluctant to spell out in much detail what the “mistakes” made by the last government actually were, and who was at fault. The obvious culprits are Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, but they both remain quite popular with some Tory members and there was very little explicit criticism of what they did in office from anyone during the campaign.
What we don’t know yet is whether Badenoch will be minded to turn on her predecessors more bluntly now that she has won the leadership.
Starmer congratulates Badenoch, saying having first black leader of Westminster party 'proud moment for our country'
Keir Starmer has congratulated Kemi Badenoch on her election victory, saying the fact that she has become the first black leader of a Westminster party is “a proud moment for our country”. He posted this on social media.
Congratulations, @KemiBadenoch, on becoming the Conservative Party’s new leader.
The first Black leader of a Westminster party is a proud moment for our country.
I look forward to working with you and your party in the interests of the British people.
This is a version of what he said, in slightly more uplifting language, at PMQs on Wednesday when he said that having Rishi Sunak and his family light the diyas outside No 10 last year was “a significant moment in our national story” because he was the first British Asian PM and it showed Britain was a country “where people of every background can fulfil their dreams”.
Badenoch herself is unlikely to talk so much about being the first black leader of a major UK party. Although she was equalities minister, she thinks leftwingers exaggerate the extent to which black people are disadvantaged by structural inequalities in Britain.
Kemi Badenoch won with 57% of the vote.
That is a less decisive victory than David Cameron’s, (68%), Boris Johnson’s (66%) and Iain Duncan Smith’s (61%), and similar to Liz Truss’s (also 57%).
UPDATE: Taking into account rejected ballots, Badenoch had 56% of the vote. That is a lower share than Truss (who had 57.4% of the vote not taking into account rejected ballot papers, and 57.1% if they are included.)
Updated
Badenoch said she would want to all colleagues to contribute to the job of renewing the party, including Conservatives in the Scottish parliament, in the Senedd, from Northern Ireland, as well as councillors and party members.
The Conservative party was “critical to the success of our country”, she said.
But she said they had to admit where they made mistakes.
Our party is critical to the success of our country, but to be heard, we have to be honest, honest about the fact that we’ve made mistakes …
The time has come to tell the truth, to stand up for our principles, to plan for our future, to reset our politics and our thinking, and to give our party and our country the new start that they deserve. It is time to get down to business. It’s time to renew.
And that was it. It was a very short speech from Badenoch, that was little more than a rehash of her stump speech.
Badenoch says Tories need 'clear plan to change this country by changing way government works'
Badenoch says the Conservative party have a tough but simple job.
They have to hold the government to account, and to prepare for government, she says.
They need, not just clear “Conservative pledges that appeal to the British people”, but also, “a clear plan to change this country by changing the way that government works.”.
She claims Keir Starmer is discovering the perils of not having such a plan.
Badenoch pays tribute to Jenrick, saying she expects him to play 'key role in party for many years to come'
Kemi Badenoch is speaking now.
She thanks Richard Fuller, the party chair, and party members.
She goes on:
It is the most enormous honour to be elected to this role, to lead a party that I love, the party that has given me so much.
I hope that I will be able to repay that debt.
She thanks her husband, Hamish Badenoch, and Rishi Sunak.
And she pays tribute to her rival, Robert Jenrick. She says:
I’d also like to pay a special tribute to Robert Jenrick, who has fought a great campaign.
Rob, we have all been impressed by your energy and your determination.
You and I know that we don’t actually disagree on very much. And I have no doubt that you have a key role to play in our party for many years to come. Thank you.
Updated
Full leaderhip election results
Here are the full figures from CCHQ.
There were 131,680 eligible electors. Turnout was 72.8%.
Kemi Badenoch received 53,806 votes
Robert Jenrick received 41,388 votes
There were 655 rejected ballots.
66,288 electors voted online and 29,621 electors voted by post.
Blackman does not give us the full result for Robert Jenrick – at least not so we can hear at the back.
He welcomes Badenoch to the state, and says it is wonderful to have the first black leader of the party.
Badenoch elected Tory leader
Blackman is now reading out the results.
Kemi Badenoch: 53,806
Robert Jenrick: 41 – we can’t hear the rest because of the cheering
Number of members eligible to vote: 131,680
Turnout: 72.8%
Spoilt ballot papers: 655 (610 unmarked or void, and 45 rejected because they voted for more than one candidate)
Bob Blackman, chair of the 1922 Committee, is now speaking.
He starts by thanking Richard Fuller for his work as party chairman.
He says, when he became chair of the 1922 Committee, he wanted to ensure the party had a chance to rebuild, with a broad swathe of candidates.
They reached compromise between those who wanted a very short contest, and those who wanted it to go into next year.
Blackman also says he wanted to ensure Rishi Sunak had the chance to respond to the budget. Suank “eviscerated” the budget, he says.
Fuller says whoever wins needs the party’s full support.
And he welcomes Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick into the room.
They get a standing ovation.
Richard Fuller welcomes those who are here. And he thanks members for making the contest so “engaging”.
He names all six candidates, and thanks them for putting themselves forward.
It’s starting. Richard Fuller, the Conservative chair, is taking the stage.
From Christopher Hope from GB News
Not long now … #Toryleadership pic.twitter.com/U6sfaiHmZf
— Christopher Hope📝 (@christopherhope) November 2, 2024
Back in the room, we’re only about five minutes away from the star of proceedings. All the seats are taken and they have started playing stirring music (but not Taylor Swift – Kemi Badenoch’s current favourite).
What were the results, and turnout figures, in previous Tory leadership contests
Here are the results from previous Conservative leadership contests, and from the final MPs’ ballot of this contest, that will help put today’s results in context.
2024 contest
MPs’ final ballot
Kemi Badenoch – 42 (35%)
Robert Jenrick – 41 (34%)
James Cleverly – 37 (31%)
2022 contest
MPs’ final ballot
Rishi Sunak – 137 (39%)
Liz Truss Truss – 113 (32%)
Penny Mordaunt – 105 (30%)
Members’ ballot
Truss – 57.4% (81,326 votes)
Sunak – 42.6% (60,399 votes)
Turnout – 82.6% (142,379 out of 172,437 eligible voters)
2019 contest
MPs’ final ballot
Boris Johnson – 160 (52%)
Jeremy Hunt – 77 (25%)
Michael Gove – 75 (24%)
Members’ ballot
Johnson – 66.4% (92,153 votes)
Hunt – 33.6% (46,656 votes)
Turnout – 87.4% (138,809 out of 159,320 eligible voters)
2005 contest
MPs’ final ballot
David Cameron – 60 (36%)
David Davis – 57 (34%)
Liam Fox – 51 (30%)
Members’ ballot
Cameron – 67.6% (134,446 votes)
Davis – 32.3% (64,398 votes)
Turnout – 78.4% (198,844 out of 253,689 eligible voters)
2001 contest
MPs’ final ballot
Ken Clarke – 59 (36%)
Iain Duncan Smith – 54 (33%)
Michael Portillo – 53 (32%)
Members’ ballot
Duncan Smith – 60.7% (155,933 votes)
Clarke – 39.3% (100,864 votes)
Turnout – 78.3% (256,797 out of 328,000 eligible voters)
The figures are from this House of Commons briefing paper on Conservative leadership contests.
Labour says, whoever wins, the Tories have learned nothing. A party spokesperson told the BBC:
The choice is between two people who each played their part in 14 years of Conservative chaos and decline, and who have refused to apologise it.
Whoever wins, they have learnt nothing.
The Conservative party leadership announcement is taking place at a hotel in central London. I’m here, and we’ve all been ushered into a large reception room in a basement. There is seating for about 250 people and it’s about half full at the moment – with quite a few MPs, but more activists/supporters/staffers. And of course journalists too.
It’s all quite jovial; you would not describe the atmosphere as tense.
David Williamson from the Sunday Express has posted a picture on social media.
In half an hour Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch will be announced from the stage as the new leader of the Conservative Party - and Tories will hope he or she will be the next Prime Minister. pic.twitter.com/4RUiPx16Sh
— David Williamson (@dp_williamson) November 2, 2024
Truss blames Sunak for Tories' election defeat, but also says 'bulk' of MPs also partly responsible
Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick both say they want to unite the Conservative party if they become leader. But this morning, in the Daily Mail, there is a good illustration of why this will be so hard. As James Heale from the Spectator points out, the Mail is running extracts from the new paperback edition of Liz Truss’s memoirs in which the former PM strongly attacks her successor, Rishi Sunak.
Ahead of her paperback release, Liz Truss issues a scathing attack on Rishi Sunak in the Mail
— James Heale (@JAHeale) November 2, 2024
Claims he was "complicit in amplifying Labour's lies and spreading smears about me and my premiership"
Dubs him "a creature of the Whitehall machine" and says he skipped key meetings pic.twitter.com/0Y7VRX1vCp
Ahead of her paperback release, Liz Truss issues a scathing attack on Rishi Sunak in the Mail
Claims he was “complicit in amplifying Labour’s lies and spreading smears about me and my premiership”
Dubs him “a creature of the Whitehall machine” and says he skipped key meetings
Says Sunak was “fundamentally dishonest about illegal immigration, taxes, growth and inflation”
Tory MPs didn’t remove him as “most.. shared his belief in the establishment narrative”
Adds of remaining MPs: “It wasn’t so much survival of the fittest as survival of the wettest”
In the extract Truss says the “bulk” of Conservative MPs were also party responsible for the party’s election defeat. She says:
When I left office and Rishi became leader in October 2022, Reform’s poll rating had been around the 3 per cent mark. By the time he called the election, they were consistently in double figures on around 12 per cent and were exceeding 14 per cent by polling day.
The blame for that lies entirely on Rishi’s shoulders. Instead of acknowledging the truth about the difficult state the country was in, he tried to press release his way to success. He was fundamentally dishonest about illegal immigration, taxes, growth and inflation.
Yet it needs to be acknowledged that this dishonesty was not limited to him. It was also reflected in the bulk of the parliamentary party. The reason Rishi was not removed by MPs when he was leading us to consistently disastrous poll ratings and a dire performance against his own targets is that most of them shared his belief in the establishment narrative. They fundamentally misunderstand Britain.
It is also why he has not been properly taken to task for the worst Conservative defeat in 200 years. The Conservative parliamentary party did not want to acknowledge their complicity in backing the status quo over the real change the country needed – and still needs.
Gavin Barwell, who was chief of staff to Theresa May when she was PM, has posted this on social media about James Cleverly’s decision not to take a job in the shadow cabinet. (See 8.24am.)
Whilst entirely understandable on a human level, whoever is elected leader today only has a small Parliamentary Party to choose from. If other former Ministers refuse to serve, they are going to struggle to fill the frontbench
Badenoch and Jenrick both unpopular with public at large, poll suggests - and even more now than at start of contest
But there is other polling around that should be much more sobering for the next Conservative leader – whether it is Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick. YouGov has released polling figures about the two candidates, and it suggests the public at large don’t like either of them very much.
Here are the key findings.
Many voters have not formed a view about Badenoch and Jenrick – but those who have are more likely to dislike them than like them, and as the leadership contest has been running this summer, the two candidates have become more unpopular, not less. In its write-up YouGov says:
At present, only one in eight Britons (12-13%) have a favourable opinion of either Badenoch or Jenrick. In large part, this because relative few Britons have any opinion of the two leadership contenders, with 43% of Britons saying they ‘don’t know’ how they feel about Badenoch and 47% saying so of Jenrick.
The new leader will pin their hopes on converting these many ‘unsure’ Britons, but that can’t be taken for granted. Where public opinion on the candidates has shifted in the last few months, it has largely been in the negative direction. Compared to the end of July, the proportion of Britons with an unfavourable opinion of Badenoch has risen from 37% to 45%, while those with a negative view of Jenrick has increased from 27% to 40%.
By comparison, the number with a favourable opinion of Jenrick has increased from 8% to 13%, while the figure for Badenoch has remained effectively level (11% vs 12%).
Badenoch and Jenrick are both unpopular with at least a quarter of those who voted Tory at the last election, the polling suggests. In its analysis, YouGov says:
A significant proportion of Conservative voters already have negative opinions of both leadership contenders. While 35% of those who backed the Tories in July have a favourable view of both Jenrick and Badenoch, one in four (26%) have an unfavourable opinion of the former and three in ten (29%) of the latter.
Voters generally don’t see either Badenoch or Jenrick as likely to make a good leader – but Jenrick is much more popular with Reform UK supporters, the poll suggests. As YouGov says:
One in six Britons (16%) think Kemi Badenoch would make a good leader of the Conservatives, against 35% who believe she would be a bad leader. For Robert Jenrick, one in six Britons (17%) think he would make a good leader, versus three in ten (31%) who think he would be a bad leader.
Like the wider public, Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem voters see both candidates in about the same terms, but Reform UK voters prove an exception. While they split evenly (28% to 29%) on whether Badenoch would make a good leader, they are roughly twice as likely to say that Jenrick would make a good leader (37%) as a bad leader (19%).
This is because Jenrick is committed to leaving the European convention on human rights, a policy which is very popular with Reform UK supporters. Badenoch has not ruled the idea out, but she says it would be a mistake to commit to that now, and she argues that it would be wrong to see ECHR withdrawal as an easy solution to the problem of irregular migration.
Voters at large are more likely to see Badenoch as strong and decisive than Jenrick – but also more likely to see her as dislikeable. Here are the figures.
Voters think Keir Starmer makes a better PM than either Badenoch or Jenrick would, the poll suggests. Here are the figures.
The national newspapers are ignoring the Conservative leadership contest on their front pages this morning. But the i has polling which should come as good news to the new Tory leader. In his story, Hugo Gye says the Conservatives are ahead of Labour in a voting intention poll. He says:
The Conservatives have regained a polling lead over Labour for the first time in three years in the wake of the Budget, a new survey suggests.
A BMG Research poll for i shows that just a quarter of the public feel positive about the government’s first budget this week, with 40 per cent disapproving of the package set out by Rachel Reeves.
Voters are much more likely to say that the measures announced by the chancellor will leave them worse off than that they will benefit from the higher spending funded by tax rises and borrowing.
More funding for the NHS, schools and potholes are all overwhelmingly popular, according to the survey, but voters are split on the £25bn tax hike for businesses and opposed to the idea of increasing the cap on bus fares from £2 to £3.
I WEEKEND: Tories inch ahead in poll after Labour hit by budget backlash #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/OvmuFx49ei
— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) November 1, 2024
This is what my colleague Eleni Courea posted on social media last night about what she has heard about the results of the contest.
NEW - I hear the turnout in the Tory leadership contest was above 70% and that the winner has a decent margin of victory...
James Cleverly says he won't serve in shadow cabinet as Tories set to announce winner of leadership contest
Good morning. Conservative party members have chosen a new leader and the winner will be announced shortly after 11am at an event in London. This has only happened four times before since William Hague changed the rules a quarter of century ago to ensure members, not MPs, take the final decision about who should be leader. The process has not always worked very well – there’s been a failure rate of at least 50%, conventional wisdom would say – which is one reason why Hague thinks his rule change has been a mistake.
The two obvious failures were Iain Duncan Smith, who was elected leader in 2001 but replaced after two years after MPs concluded he was not up to the job, and Liz Truss, who only lasted two months. The members’ decision to elect David Cameron in 2005 is generally seen as a good one, because he led his party back into power and won a second, surprise election victory. Members also voted for Boris Johnson in 2019; like Cameron, he also turned out to be an election-winner, but his record as PM was so dire, and caused such lasting reputational damage to the party, that it is arguable that this was a bad choice too.
This time members have had to choose between Kemi Badenoch, the former business secretary, and Robert Jenrick, the former immigration minister. It is often assumed that the most rightwing candidate will always win in a Conservative leadership contest, and that helps to explain what happened with Duncan Smith and Truss; members chose the rightwinger when polling evidence said a more “centrist” rival would have been more popular with floating voters and the public at large. But this contest has been unusual in that both candidates on the final ballot were running as rightwingers. James Cleverly, the former foreign secretary and former home secretary, who was the leading “moderate” in the contest and who was the clear winner of the Conservative conference leadership “beauty contest”, was unexpectedly knocked out in the final ballot of MPs.
Badenoch is expected to win. There have not been any recent polls of members (polling is expensive, and media interest in the outcome of the contest is not exactly enormous) but the ConservativeHome website carries out surveys of party members which have always reliably predicted the winner in leadership contests and its last one, published on 25 October, said Badenoch was comfortably ahead. It had her on 55%, Jenrick on 31% and don’t knows on 14%.
My colleague Esther Addley has written profiles of the two candidates which are here.
Today I will be focusing almost entirely on the Tory leadership contest, although I may cover some other UK politics as well. The results are being announced at an event in London where Richard Fuller, the party chair, will say a few words, and Bob Blackman, chair of the 1922 Committee, will unveil the winner. The new leader will then deliver a short speech.
At some point the new leader will have to appoint a shadow cabinet, but it is not clear yet when that will happen. One person, however, won’t be available; Cleverly has said he wants to stay on the backbenches. The revelation came in an article by Lucy Fisher, who interviewed him for her paper’s “Lunch with the Financial Times” feature slot. She writes:
[Cleverly] has voted in the leadership contest, but will not confirm whether he backed Badenoch or Jenrick. He resolutely refuses to critique — let alone criticise — either candidate, conceding only that he does not “always agree” with them.
All three indicated they envisaged a smaller state and lower taxes. But Cleverly did not share Badenoch’s crusade against “woke” ideology, while he diverged from Jenrick over his vows to quit the European Convention on Human Rights and to radically reduce net inward migration to “tens of thousands” of people annually.
While he insists he will do everything he can to ensure the victor is a “roaring success”, he reveals he will do so from the backbenches for now — he is not planning to serve in the next leader’s team as a shadow minister.
If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line (we hope to open comments a bit later) or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.
If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. I’m still using X and I’ll see something addressed to @AndrewSparrow very quickly. I’m also trying Bluesky (@andrewsparrowgdn) and Threads (@andrewsparrowtheguardian).
I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos (no error is too small to correct). And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.
Updated
