Rishi Sunak could lose the Tory leadership contest by a wide margin in a run-off against all three of his rivals in the race to succeed Boris Johnson in No 10, according to a new members’ poll.
The YouGov poll — published ahead of the fourth ballot of MPs — shows the former chancellor would be defeated by Penny Mordaunt, Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch, who could be eliminated today.
It will come as a major blow to Mr Sunak’s camp, with the former cabinet minister highly likely to progress through to the final stage of the contest after winning the support of 115 MPs in the third ballot last night.
Against Ms Mordaunt, a former defence secretary, the foreign secretary Ms Truss, and former equalities minister Ms Badenoch, Mr Sunak trails by 14, 19 and 22 points respectively.
Despite early momentum in the leadership race, Ms Mordaunt, however, also appears to have lost her commanding lead, and would now be defeated in a run-off between rivals Ms Truss and Ms Badenoch.
YouGov’s previous survey last week had Ms Mordaunt as the firm members’ favourite, but now it shows Ms Badenoch, who is vying to stay in the race today, could win against all her other candidates at the members’ vote.
The findings come after the contenders traded blows in two televised debates over the weekend, with fierce clashes over the direction of the economy, taxation, trans rights, and the record of Mr Johnson in government.
On Tuesday Tory MPs will again be balloted in order to whittle down the race to three candidates, before a final ballot on Wednesday where the parliamentary party will decide which two candidates to be put forward to the members’ vote.
Over the summer the two final candidates will participate in hustings events across the country before the next Tory leader and prime minister is announced on 5 September.
