Labour will win by a mile but is coming to power at the worst possible moment. The economy has been laid waste by the Conservatives, who have deployed a scorched earth policy that will ensure the incoming government has the inheritance from hell.
That, at least, is the conventional wisdom, a view that Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have done nothing to counter. There is a reason for that. It suits Labour’s campaign message to paint the blackest possible picture so that it can blame the Tories for any tough decisions they have to make.