The dramatic rise in unemployment among Americans under 25—especially recent graduates—has become one of the most troubling economic headlines of 2025. Recent insights from economists, central bankers, and labor market analysts signal that this appears to be a uniquely American challenge, underpinned by a “no hire, no fire” economy rather than solely by the rapid ascent of artificial intelligence.
For many Gen Z workers, the struggle to land a job can feel isolating and fuel self-doubt. But that frustration recently got some high-level validation: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell echoed economists’ concerns about the cooling labor market, telling reporters at his regular press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee that it’s an “interesting labor market” right now, adding that “kids coming out of college and younger people, minorities, are having a hard time finding jobs.” Noting a low job finding rate, along with a low redundancy rate, he said, “you’ve got a low firing, low hiring environment.” and noting that it’s harder than ever for young jobseekers to break in.
While recent months have been dubbed by Deutsche Bank “the summer AI turned ugly,” and some major studies find AI adoption disrupting some entry-level roles, Powell was less sure. AI “may be part of the story,” but he insisted the main drivers are a broadly slowed economy and hiring restraint. Top economists at Goldman Sachs and UBS tackled the subject soon after and found Powell to be mostly on the money. This isn’t an AI story, at least not yet.
