The bond market is the only major asset class currently pricing risk correctly, according to Johns Hopkins economist Steve Hanke—and what it’s pricing in is ugly. In an interview with Fortune, Hanke argued that President Trump has inadvertently mixed what he called “a deadly cocktail” for Treasuries, and the result is a bond selloff that has already pushed yields past the informal threshold Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been trying to defend.
“It’s a deadly cocktail,” Hanke offered. He said “the bond vigilantes have come out of hibernation” in reference to the investors that have served as the scourge of administrations for decades, selling government debt en masse to punish what they see as reckless fiscal or monetary policy, ultimately driving yields higher until policymakers change course. The term was coined by economist Ed Yardeni in a 1983 paper, where he wrote that if fiscal and monetary authorities wouldn’t regulate the economy, “the bond investors will.”
