In the run-up to Election Day, Data scientist Thomas Miller introduced a first in handicapping presidential elections: A "ticker-tape" that presents the electoral vote (EV) count each candidate commands, practically in real time. It looks just like the live feed of share prices you see at the bottom on the screen on Bloomberg Television and CNBC. Check out the site, virtualtout.io. Believe me, it's addictive.
Miller, a professor at Northwestern University, bases his forecasts not on polls, the pundits' views, or the takes from such "fundamental" analysts as "Nostradamus" Allan Lichtman of American University, but betting prices. His sources are the odds posted on the platform he rates as most trustworthy, PredictIt. He deploys a proprietary model that translates the PredicIt odds into EVs; it's a system that proved highly accurate in calling both the outcomes and margins of victory in the 2020 presidential race, and the two Georgia Senate runoffs that followed, both clinched by Democrats.
