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Buyer beware. Freddy Peralta of the Mets is one of the few starting pitchers on the trade market who has the pedigree to start Game 1 or 2 of a postseason series. But the righthander they call “Fastball Freddy” is not the same pitcher, especially when you dig down to find what’s underneath his 4.81 ERA.
Peralta simply is not exploding down the mound nearly the same as he did in his prime. Over the past five years, including a dramatic change since last year, Peralta has devolved from having elite extension—the magic behind his lively fastball—to average extension and below-average perceived velocity.
You can see for yourself the decline of Peralta in the video above. He is throwing with career lows in extension, arm angle and perceived velocity. Here is one snapshot of his mechanical decline, with both of his noted 2026 metrics registering as career-low marks:
| Year | Extension | Arm Angle |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 7.2 | 37.3° |
| 2025 | 6.8 | 38.4° |
| 2026 | 6.5 | 32.1° |
Losing 8 ½ inches of extension means Peralta is giving hitters more time to read and react to his pitches. Perceived velocity, a function of how far the ball travels and its speed, means much more to a hitter than basic velocity.
Since 2023, Peralta’s fastball has lost 0.3 mph on the radar gun. But because Peralta has lost extension, it has lost 1.3 mph in perceived velocity, that is, to the hitter’s eye. With a perceived velocity of 94.2, the fastball of Fastball Freddy is now a below average major league fastball.
Looking at the decline in extension and perceived velocity here, you understand that any time that trades for Peralta, a free agent after the season, must be confident it can quickly fix his mechanics to get the life back on his pitches.
| Year | FB Velocity | Extension | Perceived Velocity | Opponents’ BA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 94.4 | 6.9 | 95.5 | .213 |
| 2024 | 94.3 | 6.8 | 94.9 | .239 |
| 2025 | 94.8 | 6.7 | 95.4 | .209 |
| 2026 | 94.1 | 6.5 | 94.2 | .257 |
| 2026 MLB Average | 94.7 | 6.5 | 95.0 | .246 |
