SAN DIEGO — The Boston Red Sox were out of playoff contention, playing out the string this past September, when a veteran scout showed up several hours before first pitch and noticed their All-Star shortstop, Xander Bogaerts, a longtime favorite of this scout's.
"He's out there three or four hours before the game, working on the basics of fielding drills," said the scout. "He's a great player who wants to be great. He's uber-talented. And, he's wired so right."
The Padres can't know how Boegarts, 30, will hold up physically in the years ahead. He's shown rare consistency as a hitter, posting eight above-average seasons in 10 years since debuting with Boston at age 20.
It's true also that most players peak in their 20s.
If a person can stay hungry across an 11-year contract that guarantees him $280 million, the newest star in the Padres' constellation is that type of person, said the scout and two other evaluators with major league teams other than the Padres.
"I expect him to be very good for the Padres with his work ethic and consistency," said the scout, who has followed Bogaerts throughout the player's 13-year professional career. "He's pretty phenomenal."
Red Sox personnel expected to lose Bogaerts in free agency this offseason but were bummed when it actually happened, said MLB folks who have friends with the team. He'd spent nearly half of his life with the franchise, starting out at 16, when scout Mike Lord signed him out of Aruba for $410,000.
Conversant in four languages, he adapted fast to a new country. Thriving despite the intense scrutiny that comes with playing for the Red Sox, he evolved into a team leader who was part of two World Series champions.
"I know some folks with Boston who were devastated to see him go," the scout said. "That was such a blow to that franchise emotionally, because of everything Bogaerts brought from a leadership and makeup standpoint, and he played at such a high level."
As a homegrown star who's won five Silver Slugger bats, Bogaerts was something of a Tony Gwynn figure in Boston. Of course when Gwynn spent his entire 20-year career with the Padres, 11-year, high-salaried contracts to 30-year-olds weren't a serious possibility.
The best explanation for the decisions that ultimately led to Bogaerts donning a brown-pinstriped jersey and SD cap last week is the Padres have much more to gain from winning a World Series than the Red Sox do. It'd be their first trophy.
Bogaerts owns two World Series rings and, according to the three MLB evaluators, is a good bet to hit well deep into his 30s and provide reliable defense. "I'd be very surprised if he doesn't have five really good seasons in him," added a former player with ties to him.
The 6-foot-2 right-hander's ability to "stay behind the ball" and drive pitches to all fields, said the scout, bodes well for weathering age-driven decline.
"Maybe he's not going to be a 30-home run guy," he said. "I still expect him to have a high (batting) average and to control the strike zone. With that team and the amount of traffic on the base paths, he's going to exploit openings on the infield. He has such a sound fundamental approach, it's going to age pretty well.
"Will he hit 30 home runs or even 25? Maybe not," the scout added. "I still expect him to have a high on-base percentage and an 800-plus OPS. I don't think the bat will be a problem. It's just too consistent."
A different evaluator said he expects Bogaerts to produce good offensive results for years, but may sustain a statistical dip caused by swapping Fenway Park for Petco Park as his home venue.
His statistical line for the past five seasons shows a .301 batting average, a .373 OBP, a .508 slugging percentage and an .881 on base plus slugging rate. Adjusted for ballparks, his five-year OPS was 33% above the big league average, per Baseball-Reference.com.
Defensively, Bogaerts' attention to detail provides forecasted cushion once again, though compared to his hitting, his margins at shortstop may be slimmer.
"He's more on the steady side; I don't expect him to be spectacular at shortstop," the scout said. "He's just so fundamentally sound. It's important for him to be good. At the least, he'll be reliable."
The scout said that if the Padres had to replace Manny Machado, who is a similarly durable and productive righty hitter, Bogaerts could handle third base. As a rookie he started all six games of the 2013 World Series at third, where Machado has set a higher standard.
If there's an X factor to how the $280 million investment pans out, it apparently won't entail Bogaerts' intangibles and fundamentals.
He has those bases covered.
