SAN DIEGO — No Fernando Tatis Jr.?
No problem. The Padres should still reach the playoffs.
Defensively, they’re better without Tatis unless they would’ve limited him to designated hitting. They’re more talented than their first rival for the final wild card, the less-spendy Milwaukee Brewers. Few rotations surpass the Padres’ trio of Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell.
So, take a deep breath. When the newly expanded World Series tournament opens in October, expect the Padres to trot out for introductions. From there, see what the dice turn up.
Tatis’ poor decision isn’t proof of a Padres curse or a singular example of bad luck. A year ago, the Braves were dealt worse hits, losing Tatis-like slugger (Ronald Acuna), Manny Machado-esque hitter (Marcell Ozuna) and ace Mike Soroka, only to win a playoff berth and the World Series with Major League Baseball’s 11th-highest payroll.
This isn’t to ignore the obvious: Tatis hurt the Padres by consuming a banned performance-enhancing steroid, resulting in an 80-game suspension days before he was to return from a season-long absence.
He might’ve lent dynamite to an offense that erupted this week behind recent additions Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury, and saw Machado regain some of his MVP-worthy first-half form.
By himself, Tatis could’ve wrecked any team. For proof, see his destruction of the Dodgers early last year in Los Angeles.
Completing the comeback from a left-wrist fracture, however, loomed as a big challenge, despite Tatis’ splashy track record following injury absences. The righty swings violently, putting extra stress on the left wrist with a one-and-take-way. Bob Horner, the former Braves slugger, wasn’t the same consistent hitter after suffering an injury to the same bone.
If they can’t hold off the Brewers, the Padres will have to explain why their $220.8 million in payroll wasn’t enough. They’ve outspent Milwaukee by $90 million, a gap too large to ignore.
But in paying above the market rate when they signed backup shortstop Ha-Seong Kim to a four-year, $28 million contract two offseasons ago, the Padres ably protected themselves at Tatis’ spot.
The Padres said Kim’s popularity in South Korea would offset much of the cost via business deals; in baseball-only value, he has held his own or better, having evolved into an excellent defender. He’s a better defender than Tatis, who can make more spectacular play but lacks Kim’s consistent accuracy.
Even with Trent Grisham having a strange season, he’s more comfortable in center field than Tatis, who made his debut there last year.
Closer Josh Hader’s arrival in the recent trade with Milwaukee evidenced another Padres’ financial advantage. Trading Hader shrank a big hit — an estimated $18 million — on the 2023 payroll, where the Padres next year figure again to soar past $200 million.
Real talk about PEDS
When reporting Tatis’ suspension Friday, many media outlets used the word shocking.
Among MLB scouts and field personnel, PED suspensions don’t elicit shock. The reactions skew toward matter of fact, an acknowledgment of the intensive pressures and rewards within an $11 billion industry.
Start with the industry perception that banned PEDs, though potentially hazardous, in fact enhance a ballplayer’s strength-training efforts by enabling more intensive workouts and faster recovery. In the same view, the athlete gains explosiveness and confidence. The incentive to “cycle” up can grow among players entering rehabilitation from injury.
Motor skills needed to play high-level baseball come from genes, not syringes or pills, but when an MLB media partner arranged for PED experts from a testing agency to brief its journalists, some listeners came away astounded at a potential dimension. The experts said that cyclists who had used banned PEDs reported greater visual acuity. Though not based on scientific findings, the anectdotal accounts elicited a gasp from a baseball Hall of Famer who was present.
Tatis said he didn’t know that a treatment he sought for ringworm contained the banned substance, a testosterone-boosting anabolic steroid.
Though he’s far from the first player suspended under baseball’s PED policy — joining former stars such as Ryan Braun, Alex Rodriguez, Robinson Cano and Manny Ramirez — he’s unusually young, at 23, to raise this red flag.
Tatis made a bad decision, whatever his intent. As he acknowledged in his public apology, he alone deserves the blame and the punishment for violating MLB’s policy on banned substances.
He messed up. Full stop.
However, Padres leaders A.J. Preller and Peter Seidler deserve scrutiny for how they’ve handled Tatis.
Arguably, they’d given him too much slack.
He had played only two half seasons in the big leagues, totaling 630 plate appearances, when they awarded him a 14-year, $340 million, fully guaranteed extension in February 2021.
Former Miami Marlins executive David Samson marveled at the contract, saying the Padres appeared to assume all of the risk.
At the time, the Padres controlled Tatis’ rights four more seasons. Also, they knew that his left shoulder, according to the injury history Tatis disclosed publicly months later, had been dislocated, if slightly, several times dating to when he was 16.
The Padres didn’t link having shoulder surgery to their $340-million offer. Weeks after the deal was done, in spring training, Tatis needlessly dived across home plate and dislocated the shoulder. It was the first of at least four dislocations last year. Each dislocation heightens the risk of another dislocation. Following the season, Tatis decided against surgery, one that doctors have said ultimately will be necessary.
When Tatis sustained a wrist injury last winter, following a motorcycle mishap in the Dominican Republic, the Padres opted against trying to claw back money from his contract. Calling into question their diligence at managing their $340-million star, not until several weeks later did the team ascertain he would need surgery.
Going forward, attempting to trade Tatis would seem a non-starter. Teams would want to see him play — and for months — before negotiating. Besides, the contract gave Tatis full no-trade powers.
Given that he’s still due about $320 million, Tatis and the Padres will have to figure out how to make this work.
