SAN DIEGO — The Padres must begin with Juan Soto, despite the Mt. Everest-high odds.
If you're chasing a World Series trophy, no other hitter in baseball tops Soto.
He can clobber the better pitchers or tax them with walks, and the team that trades for the Washington Nationals corner outfielder and No. 2 hitter — if anyone does, by Aug. 2 — will take him into the next three pennant races.
The Dominican's hitting brilliance three years ago, at age 20, played heavily in the Nationals (formerly the Montreal Expos, a Padres expansion partner in 1969) knocking off the favored Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros to seize the franchise's only World Series title.
Beyond the baseball calculus of a lefty who owns nearly 40 home runs more than fellow 23-year-old Fernando Tatis Jr. and has reached base in nearly 43% of his career chances, Soto connects to San Diego baseball greatness.
Without laying too much on the young dude, whose ability to stack up 10, 15, 20 productive seasons won't be known for years, Soto deserves qualified mention alongside the San Diegans enshrined in baseball's small fraternity of truly great hitters: Ted Williams and Tony Gwynn.
Williams, because of Soto's comparable penchant for amassing home runs and walks while being so young.
Gwynn, because Soto's underlying swing path — which targets left-center — mirrors that of the eight-time batting champion, right down to the "knob to the ball" drills Gwynn espoused and Soto reported to Sports Illustrated.
"Love Soto, and Tony would, too," a member of Gwynn's inner circle said this week.
Put Soto in brown pinstripes, about when Tatis returns from the fractured wrist and get a load of this right-left-right trio of consecutive hitters: Tatis, Soto and Manny Machado.
For fun and to appreciate some Padres history, you could compare Tatis-Soto-Machado to trios of decades ago.
Start with Gwynn batting second for the 1992 team. Gary Sheffield hit third, from where he terrified pitchers and contended for the Triple Crown. Then came Fred McGriff, who belongs in the Hall of Fame.
In 1996, when the Padres won their first West title in 12 years, the leadoff spot belonged to Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson (.410 on-base, 37 stolen bases).
Gwynn, unanimous MVP Ken Caminiti and Steve Finley occupied either of the next two spots.
As for the 1998 club, which took down pitching-rich Atlanta for the pennant, Quilvio Veras (.373 OBP in the leadoff spot) preceded some combination of Gwynn, Greg Vaughn (50 home runs), Caminiti, Finley and under-appreciated Wally Joyner (.415 batting average with men in scoring position).
Now for the cold-water segment of the Soto dream sequence.
The Padres would have to deal several young players they'd rather keep. Financially, things could get stickier than a vat of pine tar. Taking on the remainder of his $17.1 million salary could move them into the "luxury tax" penalty box absent significant payroll reduction elsewhere. As a repeat offender, they'd incur stiffer penalties.
Solving the payroll puzzle the following two years, when Soto will command about $50 million to $60 million in total salary, could induce migraines.
Consider Machado can opt out of his contract after the 2023 season, when he'll be 31 and will have five years and $150 million left on his Padres deal. Though Machado has thrived in San Diego, the Miami Marlins could pull his heart strings, too.
"That's home," Machado told Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci last month. "Always will be. That's where my family is. I have two great places to live: San Diego and, around November, I always go home to Miami."
Given Soto turned down more than $400 million in a backloaded deal from Washington, whose owner reportedly will sell the team, he looms as a 2 1/2-year rental for prospective trade partners.
The financial price could soar further, if Washington insists on offloading pitcher Patrick Corbin, due about $67 million as of the deadline — as former MLB executive Jim Bowden said they will — to Soto's pursuers.
For a Padres bid to take shape, the Nationals almost certainly would have to covet shortstop CJ Abrams and pitcher MacKenzie Gore, and the Padres would have to accept losing the 10 years of control of those potential standouts. And the Nats likely would seek prospects, in addition, from a group that includes James Wood, Jackson Merrill and Robert Hassell III.
Raising the bar higher, incurring the luxury tax could deal the Padres draft-related penalties.
President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller has been riding a trade-success wave in the past year-plus, having in effect dealt coins on the dollar for pitchers Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Sean Manaea and Taylor Rogers (the latter while gaining $6.6 million in much-needed payroll relief).
Trading for Soto, though not impossible, would be more complicated than any of those deals.
"If the Padres are willing to give up pieces like Abrams and Gore, they have a shot," said a scout with another major league club. "They'd have to empty their farm. All depends on if you want to go broke the next three years."
The scout said he'd lean against it, saying the fallout beyond 2024 could be incredibly bleak.
Would a World Series trophy be worth it? Remember, it'll probably take 13 postseason victories for the Padres to get one, given the Dodgers' dominance of West races. Neither Soto nor anyone else would make them the favorite to represent the NL this October — even if Tatis recovers fully.
If Preller passes on Soto and targets the bargain market, a probable scenario no matter when Tatis and Wil Myers return from injury, he'd do well to replicate GM Kevin Towers' smart trades in the summer of 1998. The deals brought hitters Jim Leyritz and John Vander Wal in return for obscure minor leaguers. Leyritz and Vander Wal brought needed clutch hitting and matchup versatility to manager Bruce Bochy, fueling the October surge.
