Here's some good news Padres fans don't want to hear right now, and I don't blame them:
As deflating as it was to see the Dodgers sweep their team, just days after A.J. Preller's bold trades put Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury into brown pinstripes, the three defeats meant very little, practically speaking, in the big picture.
If fans groaned in exasperation as Dodgers pitchers continued to feed Padres lumber into a blue wood chipper, the overall narrative remained the same when the Padres rolled back down Interstate 5 and began a short homestand Monday against the San Francisco Giants.
The Padres (61-50 entering this week) almost certainly will notch their first winning full season under Preller and, cushioned by their massive, ever-growing payroll and a wild-card competition that's smaller than it may first appear, the Padres still clutch a ticket to their first playoff berth off a 162-game season since 2006.
Better than a consolation prize, the wild card once again provides the only option for the Padres and other NL West teams to cope with having the Dodgers in the same division.
The lone exception in the past 10 years — the 2021 Giants winning 107 games to edge the Dodgers — merely proved the rule.
If you don't believe me, listen to Preller say the quiet part out loud in December 2020.
"The reality is," he told ESPN, "the Padres are never going to be able to compete financially and roster-wise completely with the Dodgers," he said. "So what's your next best option? Let's do the best we can and if we get there, we can beat them in a seven-game series."
Doing the most he could last week, Preller improved a second-place club by adding arguably MLB's best offensive player in right fielder Soto, who's delivered steely plate appearances and mostly good defense in the five games; and perhaps the NL's best closer in Hader, who looked himself, which is to say, dominant, in his Padres debut.
So, while the Padres will have to raise their level of play to secure a playoff berth and beat any playoff team, keep in mind MLB's annual competition has become heavily backloaded. Five of the past eight Dodgers teams that won the West lost in the playoffs, a reminder that being the best team across six months doesn't confer much of an advantage in October.
If their frontline starting pitchers avoid a major setback, the Padres should claim no worse than the third and final wild card.
With payroll having come to resemble destiny in the NL, where the six biggest spenders also occupy the six playoff spots in the current standings, the Padres effectively have bought themselves a winning season and the inside track to the third wild card.
Their payroll of $220.8 million, which stands fourth in the NL and fifth in MLB per Spotrac.com, exceeds by $90 million that of Milwaukee, their closest pursuer for the final wild card.
Further, a likely major difference in projections for next year's respective payrolls may have contributed to the teams' trade last month that brought Hader to San Diego.
Padres fans hope Hader recalls Greg Vaughn, who hit 50 home runs for the 1998 Padres — plus two more in the World Series opener — two years after Kevin Towers got him from the Brewers.
The Hader trade smelled like bad cheese in Wisconsin because the Brewers were leading the NL Central when they shipped out a four-time All-Star and three-time NL Reliever of the Year.
The odor didn't improve when the Brewers followed with five defeats in six games, against losing teams, to fall to second place while also tumbling a game and a half behind the Padres.
While it's true the Brewers increased their current payroll slightly in recent trades, it's also true that Hader, 28, will command more than $15 million next season before becoming eligible for free agency.
Scouts like Robert Gasser, a minor league pitcher who went to Milwaukee in the trade. But he's in Double-A and unlikely to help the Brewers win a wild card this year.
Of course, beating the Dodgers this past weekend would've helped the Padres in the wild-card races — but Dodgers excellence helps the Padres, too. The Giants' recent drubbing at L.A.'s hands — eight consecutive losses — pushed them further behind the Padres. The Brewers, meantime, still have seven games against L.A., to say nothing of three against the New York Yankees and seven against the St. Louis Cardinals.
As we follow the money as it talks loudly in the NL, check out the top six in win-loss record: it's the Dodgers (first in payroll at $265.4M), New York Mets (second, $261.2M), Atlanta Braves (fifth, $181.9M), Cardinals (sixth, $161.5M), Phillies (third, $242.2M) and Padres (fourth, $220.8.M).
A deep postseason run would reward Padres fans, while also increasing the team's revenues, perhaps further raising next year's payroll ceiling. By winning the first wild card, the Padres would bring the best-of-three series to Petco Park, further enhancing cash flow.
The fan enthusiasm in the East Village might rival the frenzied crowds in Mission Valley that, much bigger in size, cheered the 1998 team to playoff victories.
Reminder: Those Padres lacked home-field advantage but still knocked off a pair of teams that won more than 100 games.
So, the lesson is a familiar one. Don't fret the opponent, the venue or the format. Get in and get hot.
