A LEADING historian has said his prediction that the cause of Scottish independence was “virtually dead for at least a generation” could be “fatally undermined” by unforeseen events.
Professor Tom Devine, a prolific historian of Scotland and a professor emeritus at Edinburgh University, said he believed a UK Government of “whatever political stripe” would not grant a second referendum unless support for Yes polled at more than 60% for a “sustained” period of time.
But he conceded “events” could betray his predictions, arguing his substantial expertise did not equip him to make concrete predictions about the political future of Scotland.
He had previously told the BBC he believed the “cause of independence” was finished for a generation “at least”.
Writing in The National, Prof. Devine said: “When asked about the future of Scottish independence by the BBC reporter I responded as a citizen of Scotland who voted for independence in 2014 and gave my opinion with no more or less authority behind it based on my evaluation of recent events concerning the SNP and the Scottish Government.
“Of course, equally, it would be naive for me not to accept that my prognosis was in part formed by over fifty years of study, research and reflection on the history of Scotland in comparative international contexts.
“Others can judge whether that gives me any more authority than anyone else to consider meaningfully what might happen in future years to our nation. Personally, I doubt it does since, as one of The National’s correspondents, pointed out ‘events, dear boy, events’, have and will continue to fatally undermine even the best-informed predictions of what is likely to happen even in the next few decades or so.”
The historian also said he did not believe the current levels of support for independence – around 45% of voters – would “necessarily collapse soon” – but said it was unlikely this would deliver a second referendum.
And he said it was “not within the realms of possibility” that substantial numbers of No voters could be won over to Yes because of “issues” with Scottish Government policy and the “perceptions of corruption” threatening the SNP as a result of police probe into the party’s finances.
He added: “There is no chance whatsoever of a UK government of whatever political stripe granting a referendum on independence unless there is at least a sustained polling majority of over 60% in favour of that outcome in Scotland.
“Achieving that threshold has proven impossible even during the recent years of very unpopular UK Conservative rule and is likely to be even more problematic, if as seems likely at present, the Labour Party wins the next General Election.”
Prof. Devine argued support for independence could be buoyed by Scots’ resentment of the Conservative Party, who have been in power for the past 13 years.
He said: “The threshold mentioned above can only be reached by winning over many more Scottish voters to the cause of independence. I am of the view that the chances of that happening any time soon are simply not within the realms of possibility.
“There has been a slow burn but nevertheless a visible and steady alienation from non-SNP voters over Scottish Government policies on a long list of issues from ferries to health care and from the economy to education.
“No devolved government can win support for more radical constitutional change other than by demonstrating competence in devolved administration.
“This has not happened over the last decade or more. Attracting support from soft Unionists to reach credible numbers to force a referendum is presently therefore nothing other than pie in the sky.
“Recent media exposures of financial irregularities within the SNP may not result in criminal charges. Even so, perceptions of corruption, or to use the modern term ‘optics’, are bound to linger.”
