Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) is an excellent buy-and-hold stock, but there are risks for its share price and investors in 2025. The stock is a great buy and hold because of its operational quality, cash flow, capital return, and long-term supply-demand outlook. However, macroeconomic conditions are impacting the housing business in 2025 and point to sluggishness and weakness in the back half.
The primary sticking point is the guidance for deliveries, which fell short. The takeaway is that FQ3 was strong, profitability robust, and ample capital returns, but the situation may change abruptly in Q4 and early Q1.
