The Conservative party is in a state of paralysis. Boris Johnson wants to move on from Partygate, but every time he tries, the topic comes back to bite him – and it will keep doing so given there are now three inquiries into it. The bulk of Tory MPs don’t want to publicly back their leader on the issue, but they also currently don’t want to go so far as to oust him and trigger a leadership contest.
The stalemate is causing frustration on both sides. “They should either shit or get off the pot,” a supporter of the prime minister puts it bluntly. “We’re in no man’s land,” says a Tory MP.
This tension was evident last week when the government had to U-turn over a vote brought by Labour to refer Johnson for a Commons investigation into whether he misled the House. After those with government roles suggested they would not vote to block it, MPs were given a free vote – now Johnson faces yet another inquiry.
It also ended up dominating Johnson’s trip to India, which aides had hoped would show the prime minister was getting on with the job. “I think it’s fair to say the new political team in No 10 and the whips’ office haven’t demonstrated any evidence that they can rise to difficult political occasions,” argues a senior party figure.
The threat of more fines still dangles over Johnson, next month’s local elections are being talked up by MPs as a referendum on Partygate, Sue Gray’s report into the whole affair is still to be published (with a source telling the Times that it’s so bad he could be forced to go) and the new inquiry by the privileges committee on whether he is in contempt of parliament isn’t expected to conclude until the autumn. “The problem is there’s no end in sight,” sighs a senior Tory.
When it comes to the groups of most concern to the whips, the one viewed as the most anti-Johnson is the One Nation set of Conservative MPs. A recent policy shift to the right – Channel 4 privatisation, sending Channel migrants to Rwanda – has only exacerbated this. Then there’s unhappy members of the 2019 intake who feel pushed around by No 10.
While there could be enough numbers in these two groups – along with a few others – to trigger a confidence vote, they would need more people on side to come close to winning it. They may also lack organisation. “The One Nationers aren’t very machiavellian. They’re not master plotters,” says one member of the 2019 intake.
So far, the strategy has been to shore up support for the prime minister by making sure those on the right are onside. Steve Baker’s call for Johnson to go suggests this approach is facing difficulties. In addition, the quiet middle are growing anxious. “I thought it was going to be fine, but I’m getting messages from a lot of MPs who are usually loyal saying they don’t like where this is going,” says one Tory MP.
Yet for all the bad news heading Johnson’s way, there are still a few key reasons that his demise is no sure bet. The biggest is that MPs do not have an obvious candidate to replace him. This was still the case earlier this year – but the implosion of Rishi Sunak over his wife’s non-dom tax status means that the most obvious candidate is no longer viewed as viable, at least in the short term.
More and more, the talk is that Jeremy Hunt is the best placed candidate. His supporters – many of whom sit on the One Nation wing of the party – argue that the former foreign secretary has the required cabinet experience, and unlike the others is not tainted or brought down by Johnson. “Boris has a morally disintegrative effect on everyone who comes into contact with him,” says a former minister.
Yet the more MPs talk up Hunt, the more those on the right of the party start to think they’d better stick with the devil they know. ‘“A Jeremy Hunt premiership terrifies the party,” says a member of the 2019 intake. There are doubts that Hunt – a key player in the David Cameron and Theresa May governments – would win the party a fifth term or keep the new coalition together.
What’s more, while next month’s local elections are being talked up as a trigger point, expectations are rock bottom for the Tories – just look at Labour figures attempting to talk down their prospects in the media. “One of the things we are holding on to at the moment is that Keir still hasn’t managed to land a killer punch,” says a party figure.
Over the weekend, supportive Tory MPs have been filling the various WhatsApp groups with anecdotes from the campaign trail – claiming constituents are saying the party had better stick with Johnson. This has met a mixed reaction.
The biggest issue for Johnson is that events around Partygate are largely out of his control. Many MPs in the middle of the party have decided to stick with him for now – but the reason they are silent when it comes to a public intervention is they could change that position if more comes out. Remember that Dominic Cummings – the prime minister’s former aide turned tormentor in chief – claimed in February when one picture was published: “There’s waaaaay better pics than that floating around, incl in the flat.”
The main sense among Conservative MPs is they just want the whole story to go away – part of the reason the mood in the party began to improve during the Ukraine crisis was that it led to a period where every political interview wasn’t about parties. If MPs start to conclude that it is impossible to do this under Johnson, their calculation to keep him in place could change. Events could yet overtake the prime minister.
• Katy Balls is the Spectator’s deputy political editor
