DALLAS — As teammates on the court, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are now 0-3, having registered losses to Sacramento, Minnesota and Team Giannis. The latter isn’t so relevant other than the chasm between Irving’s 32-point All-Star performance and Luka’s 4-point night being curious.
I have said before that I expect them to make some beautiful music together and I expect it to be short-lived, mostly but not entirely due to Irving’s struggle to find happiness with any particular franchise. If it happens at all, it’s likely to be this year when opponents have not yet sized up their options for defending two elite point guards. The Mavericks’ winning should begin Thursday when they return from the All-Star break to face San Antonio.
With 22 games to play, the date with the Spurs is one of five Dallas has against the Bottom Five teams (San Antonio, Houston, Charlotte, Orlando, Detroit). Studies of the NBA schedule are an imperfect science, especially given that the Mavs lost to the Pistons, Magic and Rockets earlier. Still, if we assume health for Dallas’ Big Two, those five games against teams mostly jockeying for draft position could be a major determinant in the final postseason seeding.
The West is ridiculously crowded from third place (Sacramento, eight games out) down to 12th place (Portland, 12 1/2 out), and I suppose we should consider the 13th-place Lakers (14 back) alive at least for one of the play-in spots. Dallas (10 1/2 out in sixth) is trying hard to remain in the top six and avoid those play-in positions for two reasons.
The most obvious is two teams that finish between 7-10 will be eliminated in a matter of two games. The other is that the winners face the 1-2 seeds, and doing all one can to avoid a healthy Denver team makes a lot of sense, regardless of regular-season results (Dallas won two of three).
The Mavs’ five games against the Bottom Five ties New Orleans for the most among the teams ahead of and just behind Dallas. Sacramento, trying to hang onto its No. 3 spot, has only one such matchup and has the most games remaining (25), so one might expect the Kings — especially with no playoff history to speak of — to be vulnerable in March and early April.
There is a flip side to this that isn’t so helpful for Dallas. There are four powerhouse teams in the East that, along with Denver, comprise the best five records in the league. The Mavericks, who went 0-6 against Boston, Cleveland and Milwaukee, have only two games against the Big Five (home and away with Philadelphia), but they also play two games at Memphis, the team with the sixth-best record. Phoenix has the most games against the Big Five, but four are at home. The Lakers don’t play the Big Five at all and neither does the surprising and difficult-to-figure Oklahoma City Thunder.
Now the All-Star break provided many, many bouquets heaped on the Mavs for combining Irving with Doncic. I thought the most effusive praise came from a recent Dallas playoff rival, Paul George of the Clippers. He said his team could no longer use its “Fire” defense to run extra bodies at Luka to get the ball out of his hands because that would simply produce open shots for Irving, a better distance shooter.
“They’re going to be special together,” George said.
My problem with that suggestion is the messenger. Does anyone remember July 2019 when the Clippers won the offseason crown, making themselves relevant and a championship favorite for the foreseeable future by landing both Kawhi Leonard and George? What great magic these two all-NBA stars were going to create, shoving LeBron and the Lakers to secondary status in Los Angeles.
Anyone recall that?
Anyone remember the Clippers doing anything other than beating Dallas a couple of times in the playoffs?
Not every NBA duo proves to be dynamic. George and Leonard certainly haven’t although the Clippers are 1 1/2 games in front of Dallas and crossing their fingers one more time. Meanwhile, Phoenix waits not so patiently for Kevin Durant to be able to join Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton and Chris Paul for a deep playoff run. The Pelicans, with the softest schedule remaining among playoff hopefuls, expect a major boost whenever Zion Williamson returns to health. Minnesota feels likewise about Karl-Anthony Towns, expected back in mid-March after missing most of the season. LeBron insists he’s not finished, and D’Angelo Russell certainly gives the Lakers a little more of a chance.
Should we ponder what Golden State can do if Stephen Curry is 100% a month from now?
You put special star players together and you expect to reap rewards. It doesn’t always happen. Even when it does, it can take time. The Miami super team that LeBron and Chris Bosh created by joining Dwyane Wade in 2010 was 9-8 after a 106-95 loss to Dallas before starting to figure things out and going on a 12-game win streak. That was en route to a rather memorable Finals loss to the Mavericks.
If it takes a similar 17 games for Irving and Doncic to figure things out, that’s probably OK as long as Dallas hasn’t wandered completely off the playoff bracket. But beating up on bad teams is an absolute must for a team that has struggled with that concept this season, and it begins Thursday.
