Barring major trades, the 2022-23 Houston Rockets aren’t likely to be significantly different than the 2021-22 version that just wrapped up the regular season with the NBA’s worst record. As evidence, nearly every rotation player is already under contract for next season.
Sure, Houston will add another top-five draft pick in June, but most rookies aren’t immediately impactful to winning. And while the highly-touted rookies from the 2021 draft class — most notably, Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun — will be entering their second NBA seasons, they will still be only 20 years old when the 2022-23 season starts.
While some internal growth can and should be expected, a radical transformation in team results isn’t likely within months. Plus, with the Rockets owning their first-round pick in the 2023 draft, another losing campaign could further add to their stockpile of young talent.
But by 2023-24, the calculus changes. At that time, Green and Sengun will be entering their third seasons, which is often a point of significant growth — just look at Ja Morant and the Memphis Grizzlies this year.
There are also off-court factors contributing to the shift. The 2023 offseason is when the Rockets could have significant salary cap room to remake the roster, with huge veteran salaries like John Wall, Christian Wood, and Eric Gordon (team option) all potentially off the books. The 2023-24 campaign is also when Houston’s draft-pick obligations to Oklahoma City (from the Chris Paul-Russell Westbrook trade) kick back into play, so the Rockets will be heavily incentivized to win — since the Thunder would be the only draft beneficiary of a losing season.
Without spelling out all those factors directly, Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta is clearly endorsing that timeline in his latest interview with Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle. Among Fertitta’s comments:
I think you’re going to see improvement this year and I think our big move is after this coming year. We expect to win more ballgames this coming season, and we expect to make a big move (the) next year.
It is difficult. But basketball operations has a plan and there’s a process, and you have to be disciplined not to meddle with this process, and give this plan an opportunity to take.
Fertitta on the #Rockets: “We expect to win more ballgames this coming season, and we expect to make a big move (the) next year.”https://t.co/7A6opm70lx #NBA
— Brian T. Smith (@ChronBrianSmith) April 17, 2022
That criteria may also shed light on how the Rockets will evaluate head coach Stephen Silas, who reportedly is entering the final guaranteed salary season of the contract he signed in October 2020. While Houston finished with the NBA’s worst record in each of Silas’ first two seasons, those losses were largely due to factors outside of his control.
In 2022-23, with some roster continuity, it appears the Rockets want to see at least slight improvement at a team level. But for the most part, it sounds as if the win-loss record will be graded on a curve until 2023-24. For one more year, the primary objective is prospect development.
The good news for Silas is that Fertitta is pleased by the individual growth and development shown by Green, in particular. When considering that Green was selected at No. 2 overall in the 2021 first round, he’s by far the most important piece in the organization today.
“What we love about Jalen is — we always know he could score — his defense improved tremendously,” Fertitta told the Houston Chronicle. “He started getting more rebounds, he started getting more assists and that’s what we want to see. We want to see the total player, and Jalen gave us the improvement that we wanted to see.”
For one more season, it appears that will be the primary emphasis for Silas and his coaching staff, and it will also largely dictate how they are graded by general manager Rafael Stone and ownership.
But after the 2022-23 season, it’s all set to change.
