Good morning. It might not come as too much of a surprise, but public trust in the UK’s politicians and election system is at an all-time low.
According to timely research by election guru Prof Sir John Curtice, 45% of people would “almost never” trust a government of any colour to put the national interest before that of their party. That’s the highest since the question was first asked in 1986.
The British Social Attitudes survey, released yesterday, makes for uncomfortable and depressing reading: 79% of the 5,500 people surveyed are dissatisfied with how the UK is governed and say it needs “significant improvement”. That is a joint record tied with 2019, when parliament was deadlocked over Brexit, and higher than after the MP expenses scandal in 2010 when it was revealed that – among other things – a Tory MP had claimed £1,645 for a “floating duck island” for his pond.
The B-word comes up a lot in the report by the National Centre for Social Research (Natcen). As we approach the eighth anniversary of the referendum, 71% of the public think the economy is worse off as a result of leaving the EU. That is the highest share of the vote since we left.
“Absolutely none of it shocked me,” Curtice says of the results. “You could anticipate most of it. Given everything that’s happened it’s no surprise that people don’t trust politics.”
Curtice talks us through the whole report – which also covers the increasing politicisation of identity issues like trans rights – after the headlines:
Five big stories
Israel-Gaza war | A UN investigation has accused Israel and Hamas of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity on and since 7 October 2023, the date of Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel.
General election 2024 | Rishi Sunak’s closest parliamentary aide placed a £100 bet on a July election just three days before the prime minister named the date, the Guardian can reveal. The Gambling Commission is understood to have launched an inquiry after Craig Williams placed a bet on 19 May.
France | The leader of France’s mainstream rightwing party, Les Républicains, has vowed he will stay in his job despite key members of his party voting unanimously to oust him over his proposed alliance with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally. It comes as president Emmanuel Macron urged all parties to form an alliance against the National Rally.
General election 2024 | Keir Starmer will put economic growth and wealth creation at the heart of Labour’s offer to voters as he launches a business-friendly manifesto targeted at former Conservative voters.
UK news | Lucy Letby’s murder of seven babies in the hospital where she worked is an “important piece of the evidence” to consider when assessing a further charge of attempted murder, a jury has been told.
In depth: ‘Should it be surprising people don’t trust politics?’
“Given the policy changes, the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the cost of living crisis, the state of public services, unprecedented political turmoil, and at least one politician’s difficult relationship to the truth, should it be surprising that the people don’t trust politics?” Curtice says, when asked if it is a worry that the people appear to have lost faith in our political system.
The report warns that “all in all, it appears that people’s trust in governments and politicians, and confidence in their systems of government, is as low now as it has ever been over the last 50 years, if not lower”.
It’s not necessarily a problem if the public has lost confidence in government, Curtice, a senior research fellow at Natcen, says. “You can debate how much faith you want people to have in politics,” he says. “It has always been a two-edged sword in the sense that you need a measure of trust, because no government can govern without it. We want to be able to believe what our politicians say, but equally we think it’s important to be able to hold them to account.”
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Why has trust evaporated?
Lying politicians, “Partygate” gatherings in No 10 during Covid lockdowns, and crumbling public services haven’t helped. But Curtice says the biggest factor is the UK leaving the EU – and the government’s seeming inability to “get Brexit done”.
The survey found that 71% believe the economy is worse off as a result of leaving the EU, up from 51% in 2019. Now just 24% of people think Britain should be outside the EU, down from 36% in 2019.
“After the implementation of Brexit, those who were in favour had their trust in confidence in government restored following the parliamentary stalemate in 2019,” he says. “But since then – even if they would still vote to stay out – many of them feel Brexit has not delivered what it was meant to do particularly on immigration and the economy.
“It is that group of Leave voters who are now saying ‘hang on, what’s happened?’ and feel let down.” Almost half (48%) of Leave voters told the survey of 5,578 adults that they “almost never” trust the government to put the needs of the country above those of their party, up 23 points since 2020.
Remain voters have also been left vexed. “Equally those on the other side of the argument have not become more trusting, as they’re also affected by everything that’s going on,” says Curtice. Levels of distrust among Remain voters stands at 42%, up 16 points since 2020.
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Brexit divided the country, and created more dividing lines in society
Curtice says that Brexit has led to a change in what people argue about, and dragged identity issues into politics. “It is often suggested that now that Brexit no longer dominates the political agenda that the battle for votes has reverted to being simply a contest between left and right,” he says.
“Brexit wasn’t a left-right issue in the sense that it wasn’t essentially about the size of the state and what we do about inequality. It was essentially a division between those people who value diversity, and would say ‘it’s up to you what moral code you follow, what language you speak, what religion you follow, what flag you fly etc, etc. And those who value more homogeneity … who think it’s important for social cohesion that people speak the same language, for example.”
Broadly speaking, social liberals voted remain and social conservatives voted to leave. “And now which party people support is much more related to whether they are social liberal or conservative,” Curtice says. This has led to a much stronger link between people’s attitudes towards immigration, and which party they support.
National pride is now also much more divided along party lines. Labour and the Green party are much more popular among people who say they have little or no pride in their country. Meanwhile, the Tories are popular among people who describe themselves as patriotic.
The same divide is shown in people’s views on LGBTQ+ rights. Those who think “equal opportunities have gone too far” are much more likely to support the Conservatives. “The link between transgender and party preference isn’t as strong as this with immigration, but the point is that on all of these things it has become stronger,” Curtice says.
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Can politicians win back our trust?
The survey was carried out in September and October 2023, and Curtice says there’s no reason to believe that attitudes may have improved since then. “I would simply say to you ‘the health service has obviously not gotten any better, living standards have obviously not dramatically improved, Boris Johnson has not disappeared into thin air’,” he says. “More recent polling data still shows people are fairly sceptical about aspects of Brexit, so I suggest there’s no reason [people’s] positions will have markedly changed.”
The research – which is carried out every five years – had been due to be published this autumn, but the team brought it forward to the end of June when the general election was still expected in September so that “the implications would be clear for the next government”.
“When the election was called we brought it forward another couple of weeks so at least it was in the middle of the election campaign, not at the fag end when it wouldn’t make a difference.”
As the nation’s most recognised election polling expert, we couldn’t let Curtice leave without asking his prediction. “I’m 99% sure Keir Starmer will be the next PM,” he says.
What else we’ve been reading
Sport
Cricket | No upset this time for the United States as the home team was easily beaten by India at the Twenty20 World Cup, sending the cricket heavyweights to the Super Eight stage thanks to a seven-wicket win.
Olympics | Rafael Nadal is to miss Wimbledon to prepare for the Olympic Games, where he will team up with Carlos Alcaraz in a dream doubles partnership. Nadal said last month that it would not be good for his body to switch from clay to grass.
Football | Chelsea are considering a shift in their position over selling Conor Gallagher and could make a concerted effort to agree a new deal with the midfielder. Gallagher, who is out of contract at the end of next season, is wanted by Aston Villa and Tottenham.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with “Sunak aide bet on election date before announcement”. The Times previews the Labour manifesto with “Growth and prosperity our priority, says Starmer”. The Telegraph follows the same story with “Starmer paves the way for tax rises”. The Mail carries lines from “senior Tories” under the headline: “A Tory wipeout risks one-party socialist state”.
The Financial Times reports “Energy watchdog foresees ‘staggering’ oil glut while producers keep pumping”. The Mirror has an exclusive from the mother of Nottingham stabbing victim Barnaby Webber, with “Our year of hell”. Finally, the Express says “Ticking time bomb! 3.6m at high risk of diabetes”.
Today in Focus
Labour takes on the SNP in Scotland – podcast
In the 2019 general election, Labour won just one of Scotland’s 59 parliamentary seats. Can it turn around its Scottish fortunes? Libby Brooks reports.
Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Wikipedia is one of the most comprehensive resources that exists but it is, famously, not infallible. The online encyclopedia has a significant gender balance issue with its content. A number of organisations have sprung up to try to close this gap, one being Wikiesfera, a Spain-based editing group that started over a decade ago. Now, dozens of women attend workshops to create and translate Wikipedia entries about women, as well as editing existing articles that might focus on a woman’s appearance instead of her achievements.
One marathon session saw 33 articles added to Wikipedia, including a page about a work by Luisa Roldán, Spain’s earliest documented female sculptor. “You have to start somewhere. It’s a way to fight injustice, but without being overwhelmed,” Patricia Horrillo said. “If you start to ask what can I do to change the world, the answer is a bit complicated. But this is something that is within our grasp.”
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