Good morning. To a list that most famously includes the WikiLeaks revelations and the NSA files unearthed by Edward Snowden, a major new leak of classified US government information must now be added. And while the Pentagon documents now in circulation are far fewer in number, they have appeared with remarkable speed – and relate to perhaps the most sensitive arena of intelligence gathering in the world today: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The story of how they emerged is astonishing – and this morning, Julian Borger writes that the culprit is reported to be a young, racist gun enthusiast who worked on a military base. As the US battles to control the fallout from the leak with its allies, today’s newsletter takes you through what we know. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Northern Ireland | Joe Biden has promised to boost US investment into Northern Ireland if power sharing is restored. In a thinly veiled message to the Democratic Unionist party, the US president told an audience in Belfast that American investors were ready to “triple” the $2bn already invested.
Diabetes | The UK is experiencing a “rapidly escalating” diabetes crisis, with cases topping five million for the first time and under-40s increasingly affected, a report has revealed. About 90% of UK diabetes patients have type 2, a condition much more likely to develop if people are overweight.
UK politics | A senior Conservative peer has accused Suella Braverman of using “racist rhetoric” after the home secretary singled out British-Pakistani men as being of special concern in relation to child sexual abuse cases. Lady Warsi said Conservatives cannot “use the pigment in their skin as a defence mechanism to say they are not racist”. Read her comment piece.
Scotland | Scottish ministers will challenge the UK government’s block on Holyrood’s gender recognition reform bill, putting new first minster Humza Yousaf on a constitutional collision course with Westminster. The SNP said the move was necessary to achieve legal clarity on whether the issue was a devolved matter.
Wildlife | A couple in Pembrokeshire whose trees disappeared from their garden “overnight” have unmasked the unlikely culprit: the first wild beaver spotted in Wales in years. A hidden camera deployed after the trees were damaged revealed “a beaver swimming around our pond and eating our trees,” the couple said. “We couldn’t believe it.”
In depth: Four big questions about the Pentagon leaks
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How did the leaks come out?
You may be somewhat surprised to learn that the worst national security breach in the US for years appears to have emerged via a video game messaging platform, where it was posted during an argument about the war in Ukraine.
Our technology editor, Alex Hern, reports that the documents first emerged on servers hosted by the gaming focused app Discord. They first appeared in a chatroom devoted to games, music and orthodox Christianity – and replete with racist memes – called “Thug Shaker Central”, then in another devoted to a Filipino YouTuber called WowMao. In early March they popped up on yet another server, “Minecraft Earth Map”, where a user who had been debating the war posted 10 of the files with the message: “Here, have some leaked documents”.
After that disorienting origin story, two versions of the cache of files appeared elsewhere. One popped up on 4chan, a conspiratorial online message board known for birthing the “alt-right” movement. Another, which analysts say included an edited image with inaccurate casualty figures, was meanwhile being shared on pro-Russian Telegram channels.
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Are they real?
US media reports quote officials who say that while versions of some of the documents seem to have been doctored after they were uploaded to the internet, they do mostly appear to be authentic. The Washington Post reported (£) that a defence official said the documents appeared to have been collated for top US military leaders including Gen Mark Milley, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff – but that others with the right security clearances could also have accessed them.
Last night, the Post reported (£) that the original source of the files on Thug Shaker Central was the group’s administrator, a man it calls OG, who worked on a military base and appeared in a video shouting “a series of racial and antisemitic slurs into the camera, then [firing] several rounds at a target”. The Post also reports that there are about 300 photographs of files in the leak, three times as many as were previously thought to be circulating.
There is also some evidence which corroborates the case they they were leaked rather than hacked: they appear to be pictures of documents which were folded up and perhaps stuffed in the perpetrator’s pocket. The images show the documents laid on top of magazines surrounded by items including nail clippers and super glue, next to a book decorated with a picture that looks like the scope of a hunting rifle.
Even if the documents are authentic, Peter Beaumont notes in this piece, the information they contain could be imperfect: “intelligence is not foolproof and it could reflect only what US agencies think they know.”
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What do they say?
The most significant parts of the leak concern Kyiv’s level of preparedness for an expected counteroffensive – but there are plenty of lines about other countries’ involvement in the conflict that may cause serious diplomatic difficulties. Here are some of the key revelations so far:
Ukraine: US intelligence officials were pessimistic in February about Ukraine’s prospects for a new attack in the spring, saying that Kyiv could fall “well short” of recapturing territory seized by Russia. There are also details of serious air defence shortages and a risk of running out of anti-aircraft missiles completely by May.
Russia: The leaks suggest that the US has a remarkable level of insight into Russian military operations, with live information about the targets being attacked by Moscow and details of a plan to pay a bonus to soldiers who damage or destroy Nato tanks. Early this morning the New York Times reported (£) that a new batch of 27 pages shows that “the depth of the infighting inside the Russian government appears broader and deeper than previously understood”. There is also information on the Russian mercenary Wagner group’s plan to expand its operations in Haiti, as well as US use of advanced satellite imaging technology to gather intelligence on Russian forces.
UK: One document suggests that 97 special forces operatives were in Ukraine in February and March – and 50 of them were British, Harry Taylor and Manisha Ganguly report. Their purpose there is not specified, but it is suggested that the special forces could form part of a coordinated Nato group.
UN: Some documents seen by the BBC appear to describe private conversations between the UN secretary general António Guterres and his deputy about a deal to secure the export of grain from Ukraine to help tackle a global food crisis. The files reportedly suggest that the US felt Guterres was too sympathetic to Russian interests, saying that he was “undermining broader efforts to hold Moscow accountable for its actions in Ukraine”.
South Korea: Documents based in part on intercepted communications show Seoul grappling with US pressure to ship ammunition to Ukraine and concerns that artillery shells requested by Washington for its own use could end up being passed on. South Korea has a longstanding policy of not providing lethal weapons to countries at war.
Israel: Another document says that the Mossad intelligence agency encouraged its staff to take part in protests over Benjamin Netanyahu’s controversial plans to weaken the independence of the country’s judiciary. Mossad has denied those claims. There is also an assessment of scenarios in which Israel could be persuaded to provide weapons to Ukraine.
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What kind of impact might they have?
The nature of the US assessment of Ukraine’s military readiness is bound to cause friction between Kyiv and Washington, while the detailed picture it presents of the intelligence gathered in Russia is likely to help Moscow take countermeasures to make it more difficult to obtain – with human sources potentially at risk.
There is another problem for the US: the fact that the leak appears to show that it spies on some of its allies. That has already caused ructions in South Korea and Israel, while CNN reported diplomats from multiple countries saying that they planned to raise the issue with Washington.
With all of that in mind, it may not be surprising that in its public statements, the US is more focused on condemning the leak and identifying its source. Lloyd Austin, the US defense secretary, has vowed to “turn over every rock” in the attempt to do so.
There are plenty of tools available in that effort, from time stamps on documents that appear to show when they were printed to registers of who has viewed the documents in question. If identified, the culprit could face a lengthy jail sentence. But whatever happens, even the might of the US government has no power to remove the documents from circulation.
What else we’ve been reading
Sport
Champions League | A ten-man Chelsea didn’t do enough to hold off Real Madrid (above) in their quarter-final first leg, losing 2-0. A week after the interim appointment of Frank Lampard, Jacob Steinberg writes that “this is a team crying out for direction from a top manager”. Meanwhile, Ismaël Bennacer’s first-half goal helped Milan win 1-0 against Napoli, who were without their injured striker Victor Osimhen.
Gymnastics | Britain’s five-strong women’s gymnastics team held their nerve to win the European title for the first time in Antalya on Wednesday. Led by the reigning world champion Jessica Gadirova, the British team edged home after the final rotation with a total score of 164.428 to pip Italy to gold, with the Netherlands taking bronze.
Cricket | Taha Hashim, the journalist whose interview with Azeem Rafiq started the saga over racism at Yorkshire and in cricket more widely, writes about everything that’s changed since – and what hasn’t. “The real story has always been about the wider structures of the sport leaving many behind, closing ranks on those whose faces didn’t fit,” he says. The piece is in our weekly cricket newsletter, The Spin – sign up here.
The front pages
The Guardian reports on the US president’s ongoing trip to Ireland, with “Biden pledges $6bn investment if Stormont power sharing restored”. The i has “Biden appeals for Stormont breakthrough – as US denies he is ‘anti-British’”.
The Financial Times looks at ongoing concerns over the banking system, with the headline “Bailey’s fears for smaller banks drive prospect of higher deposit guarantees”. The Times says “British lives at risks from US secrets leak – MPs”.
The Telegraph leads with “Harry’s place at Coronation sparks hope of royal truce”. The Mirror has their own take with “Spare will be there”. Finally, the Mail characterises it as “Harry’s blink and you miss it coronation visit”.
Today in Focus
Why has Labour turned nasty?
The party’s latest ad campaign launches personal attacks on Rishi Sunak. What’s behind its new ruthless approach? Jessica Elgot reports
Cartoon of the day | Steve Bell
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
At the risk of turning the Upside into “cute animal corner”, it would be remiss not to point you in the direction of Pearl: the world’s shortest dog. Standing at a mere 3.6in (9.14cm) tall and 5in (12.7cm) long, Pearl is smaller than a TV remote or a dollar bill (see above). She succeeds the late “Miracle” Milly, an identical sister of Pearl’s mother, who held the record after being measured at 3.8in.
Calling her dog “a bit of a diva”, Vanessa Semler said Pearl is “small like a ball” and barely taller than a teacup. Guinness recently presented Pearl on the set of its televised talent show in Milan, where Pearl kept calm in the face of the audience’s applause, impressing the hard-to-please Italian crowd because chihuahuas have a reputation for being feisty and temperamental.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
