Good morning. People quite like Rishi Sunak, but on the current numbers, he is still facing a wipeout at the next general election. That’s the bald – and weird – state of affairs as yesterday’s budget lands, and however the government’s proposals go down, it is an extremely difficult problem for the Conservatives to fix.
James Johnson, who ran polling for Theresa May in Downing Street and is the co-founder of public opinion research firm JL Partners, has a new poll out that highlights the conundrum – with grim news for the Conservatives, but also signs of life that should stop Labour and Keir Starmer getting complacent. For today’s newsletter, I asked Johnson to explain what he found – and what it tells us about the likely shape of UK politics in the long run-up to the next election. Here are the headlines.
