Good morning. People quite like Rishi Sunak, but on the current numbers, he is still facing a wipeout at the next general election. That’s the bald – and weird – state of affairs as yesterday’s budget lands, and however the government’s proposals go down, it is an extremely difficult problem for the Conservatives to fix.
James Johnson, who ran polling for Theresa May in Downing Street and is the co-founder of public opinion research firm JL Partners, has a new poll out that highlights the conundrum – with grim news for the Conservatives, but also signs of life that should stop Labour and Keir Starmer getting complacent. For today’s newsletter, I asked Johnson to explain what he found – and what it tells us about the likely shape of UK politics in the long run-up to the next election. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Budget | Jeremy Hunt handed a huge pensions giveaway to the wealthiest 1% to help stem the tide of people leaving the workforce, in a budget designed to reboot Britain’s economy with business investment incentives and childcare support. Hunt did not announce any new increases to public sector pay. Read a guide to the measures.
Banking | Credit Suisse has announced that it will take a CHF50bn (£44.5bn) loan from the Swiss central bank, in an action intended to strengthen its liquidity and stem a crisis of confidence. More than £75bn was wiped off the FTSE 100 yesterday as investors worried about unrealised losses hidden in other big European banks’ portfolios. Read an explainer on the situation.
Housing | Black people in England and Wales are almost three times as likely as their white counterparts to live in social housing, new census data shows. The data showed that life outcomes varied considerably between ethnic groups in education and employment, health, disability, home ownership and overcrowding.
Strikes | Another day of blighted rail services has begun in Britain as RMT members at 14 train operating companies take part in the first in a wave of four 24-hour strikes. Meanwhile, ministers and health unions were said to be on the verge of a breakthrough in talks to resolve a long-running dispute over pay for NHS nurses and ambulance staff.
TikTok | Britain is expected to announce a ban on the Chinese owned video-sharing app TikTok on government mobile phones, bringing the UK in line with the US and European Commission and reflecting deteriorating relations with Beijing. An announcement could come as soon as Thursday.
In depth: ‘The conditions for change are there’
For the Conservatives, there’s no escaping it: the long hangover from the Johnson and Truss debacles is still pounding away. A new poll by JL Partners in so-called red wall seats emphasises the scale of the challenge they face. On the numbers they found, every one of the 45 seats that Labour lost in the north, Midlands, and Wales in 2019 would flip back if an election was held tomorrow. If that state of affairs continues, a Labour victory next time around is all but assured.
“Clearly, the Conservatives are still in a lot of trouble,” James Johnson said – and yet there are plenty of reasons to think that can change. “Voters are not settled on Labour – they have a high propensity to say they are considering changing their vote. In focus groups, we don’t see any real love for Starmer. The conditions for change are there.”
Here’s how all that is shaping the political argument.
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What the budget reveals about Sunak’s strategy
“The budget is not a transformative moment for the Conservatives,” said Johnson. Other than the eye-catching childcare policy, aimed at the 30-45 year old voters who voted Tory in 2019 but are feeling the squeeze, Jeremy Hunt’s plans appear designed to restore faith in his party’s economic credentials and leave headroom to do more later.
With only £22bn in new tax breaks and higher spending against £55bn in cuts and tax rises announced last time, Johnson said: “They are playing a longer game. They think that if they promise lots of wonderful stuff now, voters may not give them a lot of credit. First of all, they need to win back trust.”
Meanwhile, Labour is seeking to cast Hunt’s pensions announcement, which will mean that there is now no limit on how much people can put into their pensions pot tax-free and pass on to their heirs without any inheritance tax, as a “free-for-all for the wealthy few.” If that narrative gains traction, it’s bad news for the Conservatives.
One interesting finding from the poll: 63% of those polled don’t believe Sunak will achieve his promise of halving inflation by the end of the year. But economists mostly say that barring serious mismanagement, this is very likely to happen. “Expectations are so low – and while the media narrative is that this is an easy promise to fulfil, the public don’t think that,” said Johnson. That’s another argument for a modest approach now, with the hope of reaping the benefits later.
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Why Sunak’s relative popularity isn’t helping the Conservative party – yet
The most counterintuitive thing about the recent polling numbers is that while Sunak is doing well, there has so far been little impact on his party’s fortunes. Some – like the author of this excellent Substack post – argue that this is a limited consolation for the Tories because Sunak’s approval is “inefficiently distributed”: a lot of his personal appeal is to Remain voters who are about as likely to vote Tory as the prime minister is to use a public swimming pool.
“I’m not so sure about that,” said Johnson. He points to a finding in the poll that Sunak’s support in the “red wall” has jumped a hefty 17 points in a month as the government’s small boats policy has gained traction. (It’s still seven points behind Starmer’s, though.) “There are a lot of voters who have switched off, and Sunak might be able to get them to pay attention again. If the Conservatives can present the next election as a presidential-style race, Sunak v Starmer, rather than about what you feel about the last 13 years, they may still have a chance.”
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How he’s trying to fix it
While many are appalled by the government’s plans to stop those entering the UK via small boats from claiming asylum, as a pitch to the voters Sunak needs to win back, the early evidence is that it is effective. 59% of “red wall” voters support the policy, and within the space of a month, the most common hesitations about voting for Labour have shifted from issues with Starmer, the unions and the economy to immigration.
For now, there is little political downside for Sunak in hammering this point, Johnson said. “If this was the 2015 Conservative coalition it would be problematic – but they lost those younger more liberal voters in 2017 and they haven’t had them back since. Even outside the red wall, in seats like Ipswich and Swindon, these are not especially young middle class places: they tend to agree on this.”
The crucial caveat to this – just as it is to the attempt to tell a story about an economic comeback – is whether the evidence of the next year and a half bears out the government’s promises. Likewise, on the small boats crisis, “delivery is the big question”, Johnson said. “If nothing changes and the Conservatives don’t have a good reason for that, with a plan to rectify it, their advantage will be lost.”
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What all this means for Starmer
The biggest problem for the Labour leader is the persistent perception that he lacks conviction. “Voters are really looking for strength, and for a leader who says what they mean,” Johnson said. “They definitely see that as lacking in Starmer. On a lot of subjects, you get credit for standing up even if people disagree: on trans rights, say, if he spends two minutes not answering the question, voters probably care more about how he handles that than his view on the issue itself.”
If he is to counter this perception, Johnson suggests, he needs to find a way to show that he is driven by deep-held beliefs. “If I was advising him, I’d be saying: pick three or four big moral issues, even if they’re not the most salient things or the things most people agree with, and go really hard on them.”
At the same time, he argues, immigration may be an issue where the views of voters in the seats Labour needs to win are too ingrained to take such an approach. Rightly or wrongly, “immigration interfaces with people’s sense of fairness – older and more conservative voters link it to their own struggles to access services. When an issue becomes that personal, you get less of a hearing.”
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The prospects of a Conservative comeback
Johnson’s view is only one analysis of the current situation, and plenty of others see little chance of Sunak converting his personal brand into an election victory. “The most compelling counterpoint to my view is: Labour is more than 20 points ahead, people are sick of the Conservatives after 20 years, and almost regardless of what Sunak does that isn’t going to change,” Johnson said. “That’s a perfectly valid argument.”
Even if it’s true that Sunak’s own popularity has not been decisively separated from the fortunes of his party, Johnson still thinks a Labour victory is more likely than not in the next election. “The signs we’re seeing in polling at the moment don’t completely change the game,” he said. “But they offer a path to a much better place than the Conservatives are currently in. And they mean that 2024 is still a live contest. It’s not game over.”
What else we’ve been reading
Steve Rose has the entertaining story of the black market in Academy Awards – which can officially only be sold for $1 but in reality go for far more. If anyone does have one available for $1, though, I have a nice slot in the downstairs loo. Archie
Djimon Hounsou (above) is an Oscar-nominated actor, he’s crossed the great Marvel/DC comic book movie divide, and yet Chris Godfrey’s interview reveals he’s still struggling for respect (and equal pay) in an industry that long ago exalted his white contemporaries. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
The Guardian’s panel of writers on the budget is a useful overview of opinion on Jeremy Hunt’s plans. Katy Balls writes that impatient Tory MPs expect more tax cuts, while Lucy Pasha-Robinson sees the childcare offer as “far more radical than many would have imagined”. And Polly Toynbee says that Hunt announced nothing to change expectations that “living standards will fall and every public service will continue to decay.” Archie
As if the extra support for early-years childcare wasn’t enough, Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett gives struggling parents another fillip, arguing the benefits of screen time, both for tired parents’ mental health, but also the children. After all, how else are they going to learn the words to the Bare Necessities? Toby
“It started off, as many great creative undertakings do, as a joke,” Rachael Aroesti writes, at the start of her interview with the comedian James Acaster. The subject is his fairly surprising release of a 10-track album about the life, afterlife, and rebirth of a toy alligator. The result is not, in fact, a joke, but it is “ambitiously odd.” Archie
Sport
Champions League | Karim Benzema’s 78th minute goal sealed Real Madrid’s 1-0 win against a limp Liverpool side in the second leg of their last 16 tie, which finished 6-2 on aggregate. Jonathan Liew wrote that Liverpool looked like “a team searching in real time for something that has been lost, trying to salvage not simply a game or a tempo but an idea”.
Cricket | Temba Bavuma became the first and only black African batter with a Test century for South Africa in 2016. After he completed his second ton 89 innings later, Daniel Gallan writes for The Spin about his importance to the team and the country: “He was seen by many as yet another example of a greater malaise … and yet he endured.” To get The Spin in your inbox each week, sign up here.
Premier League | Southampton stayed rooted to the bottom of the league after a 2-0 loss to Brentford, who rose to 8th thanks to goals from Ivan Toney and Yoane Wissa. Meanwhile, Brighton beat their bitter rivals Crystal Palace 1-0 thanks to an early goal from Solly March.
The front pages
“Giveaway for the 1%” is the front page lead in the Guardian today. “Pots for the rich”, says the Daily Mirror, which criticises “Hunt’s £3.8bn pension gift to wealthy but nothing for public sector workers”. “Hunt waves through biggest tax burden since the war” says the Times, warning of the “tightest two-year squeeze in living standards on record”. The Metro calls it “The Easy does it budget” – it accentuates the “E” and says “Enterprise, Employment, Education and ‘Everywhere’ are Hunt’s ‘pillars’”.
“Hunt defies gloom with upbeat budget” – the Financial Times seems happy. “We’ll make this work for Britain” – the Daily Express is reliable in its support. “Stealth 4p rise in income tax, with 6 million facing squeeze” – the i finds the devil in the details. The Daily Mail needs convincing: “Is it enough to turn the tide?” and also notes the “£120bn stealth tax raid over next five years”.
You’ll have to turn inside the Daily Telegraph for budget coverage (11 pages thereof) – on the front it has “Swiss bank crash stokes fears of new global crisis”. The Sun cares about one thing only – it’s “victory on fuel”: “Tanks a lot”, it says, crediting its readers with Jeremy Hunt’s freeze on petrol duties.
Today in Focus
Jeremy Hunt’s ‘back to work’ budget
The chancellor has put getting Britons back into work at the heart of his plan to grow the UK economy. But the danger signs are still flashing, reports Heather Stewart
Cartoon of the day | Steve Bell
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
In 2001, Sarah Holmes de Castro was living in London when she was accosted and raped by a stranger. She soon learned to dissociate – “a blessing and a curse” – and says that regaining trust in other people, herself and life itself was slow. To cope, she began to practise yoga, hearing that it could help survivors or sexual assault. “I left that first practice finally feeling at ease in my body, and it was a relief and a joy,” she says, acknowledging that access to therapy – something many do not have – also helped her recover.
Twenty years on, Holmes de Castro lives in Canada and works with a non-profit that specialises in providing yoga for trauma. Reflecting on her recovery she says: “[Yoga] allowed me to take a breath when I needed to come up for air. It has allowed me to feel myself here in the world when it seemed as though everything I knew to be true was upended.”
In the UK, Rape Crisis offers support for rape and sexual abuse on 0808 802 9999 in England and Wales, 0808 801 0302 in Scotland, or 0800 0246 991 in Northern Ireland. In the US, Rainn offers support on 800-656-4673. In Australia, support is available at 1800Respect (1800 737 732). Other international helplines can be found at ibiblio.org/rcip/internl.html.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
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