Good morning. The story goes like this: last September, five men and one woman – a captain, two divers, two assistants, and a doctor – used professionally forged passports to rent a yacht from a Polish-registered company owned by two Ukrainians. The saboteurs set sail from the German city of Rostock, and made their way to two sites in international waters in the Baltic Sea.
The divers planted explosives on the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russian natural gas supplies to western Europe. The bombs rendered three of the four conduits essential to Russia’s future supply of gas inoperable. And the operation set off an international diplomatic incident – and mystery – with potentially profound consequences for the war in Ukraine that persist to this day.
Those are the conclusions of German investigators who have been examining the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines, according to reports in the German media on Tuesday. But the biggest question is: who did it? After months of speculation, an investigation by ARD, SWR, and Die Zeit says that a pro-Ukrainian group is believed to have been responsible – and another report in the New York Times, based on a review of intelligence by US officials, points to the same conclusion.
But those findings are heavily contested. As new Russian missile strikes hit Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa this morning, today’s newsletter, with the Guardian’s defence and security editor Dan Sabbagh, explains what we know about Nord Stream, and what still remains uncertain. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Immigration and asylum | Rishi Sunak faces a fresh clash with the EU after a warning that his contentious new migration bill will be in breach of human rights laws. Ylva Johansson, the EU commissioner for home affairs, said she personally told home secretary Suella Braverman that she believes her asylum plans breach international law.
Dominic Raab | Boris Johnson previously warned Dominic Raab about his conduct, according to media reports that claim the former prime minister has given evidence to the bullying investigation. The justice secretary faces claims from at least 24 civil servants.
Childcare | New data shows some parents face spending as much as 80% of their take-home pay on childcare while others struggle to find a provider because of supply gaps. On Thursday, Labour will promise parents of young children 30 hours of free childcare a week, if the party is elected.
Media | The BBC will have a “frank conversation” with Match of the Day host Gary Lineker after he compared the language used by the Home Office to promote the government’s migration bill to that used in Nazi Germany. While Conservatives criticised Lineker for being “out of step with the British public”, he tweeted on Wednesday: “I’ll continue to try and speak up for those poor souls that have no voice.”
The Guardian | The Guardian has won daily newspaper of the year and supplement of the year for Saturday magazine at the Press Awards. Aditya Chakrabortty was named columnist of the year (broadsheet), while Jay Rayner was awarded critic of the year for the Observer. The Guardian’s political editor Pippa Crerar was named political journalist of the year for her work at the Daily Mirror.
In depth: ‘This is an operation straight out of the movies’
Ever since the Nord Stream 1 pipelines came online in 2011, the project – which allowed Russia to reduce its reliance on Ukrainian pipes to send cheap, reliable gas to Germany – has been highly controversial. “The underlying concern has always been that this is Russian-built infrastructure with German participation,” Dan Sabbagh said. “Germany thought that constructive engagement could bring Russia into the fold.”
But the US and other European countries strongly objected, with fears that Nord Stream would make the EU too reliant on Russian gas. The construction of Nord Stream 2 – completed last September, and not yet operational at the time of the explosions – only heightened those concerns.
Among the most forceful opponents of Nord Stream was Ukraine, which saw the use of gas pipelines on its soil as a useful bulwark against Russian attacks – as well as a source of as much as $2bn a year in transit fees. “It is a 100% politically motivated project,” Ukraine’s ambassador to the EU Vsevolod Chentsov told Sky News before Russia’s invasion began. “If your question is whether this pipeline should be turned on – ever – then our answer is no.”
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What happened to Nord Stream?
Until this week’s reports, no plausible evidence of how the attacks took place has been made public. But the consequences were much clearer.
The blasts made four ruptures in the pipelines, which were encased in steel and concrete. They had an explosive force of several hundred kilos of TNT, registering at 2.1 and 2.3 on the Richter scale and releasing vast quantities of the potent greenhouse gas methane. While the blasts were devastating, they did leave one of the four pipes intact.
Since Nord Stream 2 was not yet online and Nord Stream 1 had been closed indefinitely by Russia a few weeks before the explosions, “it wasn’t that consequential in terms of supplies,” said Dan. “Europe was already moving heaven and earth to reduce its reliance on Russia – getting liquified natural gas (LNG), increasing supplies from Norway.” Nonetheless, in anticipation of a cold winter, benchmark gas prices rose by as much as 22% in the aftermath of the incident.
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Why does it matter?
While the consequences for European energy supplies have not ultimately proven severe, there are wider implications, Dan said. “Technically this is an attack in international waters, but it’s within the Nato sphere. It’s infrastructure well beyond Russia and Ukraine, so it triggered a lot of anxiety about the security of other assets. It makes the war uncomfortably close.”
If any country with a stake in the region were proven responsible, that would have significant consequences of its own. If the US or a Nato or EU country was behind the attack, that would cause a serious rift in the western alliance in support of Ukraine.
If Ukraine did it, fears that Kyiv was acting recklessly would probably diminish their support in Europe and the US – particularly, for obvious reasons, in Germany.
And evidence of Moscow’s culpability “would be a new frontier in Russian aggression,” Dan said. While a Russian act of sabotage on a Russian-owned piece of infrastructure would not clearly amount to an act of war, the material damage to future gas supplies “would further unite the west against Putin”.
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What do we know about who was responsible?
The new reports are not conclusive – the New York Times report does not specify how confident US officials are in the intelligence they have reviewed and says that they did not disclose “any details of the strength of the evidence”. But in what they do say, the US and German reports appear broadly aligned. Among the crucial details in the investigation by Die Zeit and its partners: traces of explosives were found on a table inside the hired vessel by German investigators.
The New York Times says that US officials believe the saboteurs were “most likely Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or some combination of the two.” But the crucial point about what we’ve now learned is that culpability has been tentatively assigned to “a pro-Ukraine group” – not the Ukrainian government itself. That leaves open the possibility that it was genuinely undertaken by independent actors without state backing – but also that it was an arms-length operation with the tacit or material support of Kyiv.
There are murky possibilities somewhere in the middle, Dan added. “Could it be a semi-freelance group with backing from Ukrainian state elements but not the leadership? Yes, that’s possible.”
The sophistication of the operation pointed to serious expertise and resources, he said. “This is an operation straight out of the movies. The use of professionally forged passports could be seen to point to state involvement – you don’t go to an old guy with an eyeglass in a back street to do that for you.”
At the same time, the new reports should not be viewed as definitive proof that whoever was behind the attacks was acting on Ukraine’s behalf. “I would not rule out a Russian group posing as a Ukrainian group,” Dan said. “They want to present themselves as victims on the international stage.”
The other possibility raised repeatedly in recent months – most notoriously by US investigative journalist Seymour Hersh – is that the attack was a US operation. Proponents of that view have pointed to Joe Biden’s comments last year that “there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2” if Russia invaded Ukraine.
But Hersh’s report was founded on the account of a single unnamed source who apparently knew every last detail of the operation, and has been widely viewed as unreliable. “It would be a staggering risk for the US to take,” Dan said. “For questionable gain they would do great harm to their relationships in Europe if they were discovered. A story like this, if it’s not nailed down quickly, can generate preposterous hypotheses.”
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What happens next?
After the US and German stories broke, German prosecutors confirmed that they had searched a boat that might have been used in the attacks. Meanwhile, Ukraine denied any involvement, and the Kremlin – which has blamed the west, including the UK, for the explosions – called the news “a co-ordinated fake news media campaign”.
Whatever intelligence they hold, the German authorities are proceeding with caution. “We have to make a clear distinction whether it was a Ukrainian group, happened on Ukrainian orders, or was a pro-Ukrainian group acting without knowledge of the government,” German defence minister Boris Pistorius said yesterday. But he said the possibility was “equally high” that it was a “false-flag operation to blame Ukraine”.
The most likely outcome for the western-Ukraine alliance, said Dan, is continued public unity. “I expect it would remain strong,” he said. “But if there is any evidence that senior Ukrainian officials were involved, that would be problematic.” For Russia, meanwhile, the possible benefit is elsewhere. “Their primary audience is China and the global south, not Europe,” Dan said. “They will say: look what’s going on here. The Ukrainians and the west are out of control.”
What else we’ve been reading
For the long read (illustration above), Dina Nayeri considers the generational and cultural differences that have defined her relationship with her Iranian mother – and how the same forces are already shaping how she and her French daughter see each other. “We are all displaced in time, the foreign mothers of the next generation,” she writes. Archie
If you’re curious what’s inside the six-figure Oscars gift bag, then you’re in luck. Catherine Shoard gives us the scoop, and it includes a plot of land in Australia and a facelift with celebrity surgeon Dr Konstantin Vasyukevich. What was that about a cost of living crisis? Nimo
The morning after Aditya Chakrabortty was named columnist of the year at the Press Awards, it’s worth revisiting one of the towering pieces for which he won, about an Afghan refugee, Bashir Khan Ahmadzai, and his ordeal in the UK’s asylum system. “Despite all he’d been through, he was still just a young man,” he wrote. “Your son, your brother, your neighbour.” Archie
In her review of Paris fashion week, Jess Cartner-Morley identifies a vibe shift: an end to post-pandemic comfort dressing, in favour of infinitely smarter shoulder-padded blazers and pin-sharp silhouettes instead. “This new look is not going to make everyone happy – and that is sort of the point,” she writes. “These are grownup clothes.” Archie
Joe Kloc’s financial situation in New York City became so precarious that he fell behind on rent and was evicted. Kloc’s writing vividly illuminates the acute rental crisis faced by millions of people. Nimo
Sport
Football | A limp 0-0 draw in the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final against AC Milan saw Tottenham Hotspur crash out of the competition, losing 1-0 on aggregate. Barney Ronay called it “a night that seemed to raise some very basic questions about what Spurs are for”. Meanwhile, PSG fell short in the competition again, losing 3-0 to Bayern Munich on aggregate.
Formula One | Lewis Hamilton has claimed Mercedes “did not listen” to him when developing their new Formula One car, after finishing fifth in the Bahrain Grand Prix on Sunday. He has been publicly critical of his team’s 2023 model saying it is “not the right car.”
Football | The Chelsea manager, Emma Hayes, has called for Women’s Super League clubs to offer more support to players who have babies. “If a player tears an ACL, you do everything possible to get them back on the pitch in nine to 12 months,” Hayes said. “We should be exactly the same with a woman that has a baby, but we don’t.”
The front pages
The Guardian has the latest on the government’s contentious new migration bill with, “Sunak facing clash with EU on ‘unlawful’ asylum plans”. The i says, “Sunak’s small boats Bill ‘risks Brexit peace with Europe’”.
The Daily Mail leads with: “Is Lineker about to get boot from BBC?”, after the Match of the Day host criticised the proposed new migration laws. The Mirror quotes the former footballer in its headline, “Lineker: I will never be silenced”.
The Financial Times says, “Drive to increase overseas worker numbers to begin with construction”. The Telegraph has the latest in its Lockdown Files series with, “Hancock’s Chinese lab leak claims censored”. Finally, the Times reports: “Weight-loss drugs could help to trim benefits bill”.
Today in Focus
Avian flu is decimating wild birds – but could it become a global pandemic?
Across the globe a particular strain of avian flu has been killing wild birds. The Guardian’s Phoebe Weston, a biodiversity reporter on the Age of Extinction project, explains to Hannah Moore how this contagious strain spread to far-flung areas and whether it could it mutate to spread to humans.
Cartoon of the day | Steve Bell
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Raphael Vicente started posting videos online when he was just 14. Over the last eight years, Vicente has been honing his craft and building an online presence that now comprises three million TikTok followers and a further million on Instagram. He uses his energy and humour to show the world what life is like in favelas for residents, filming his videos with his family: his younger sister, 70-year-old grandmother and his 67-year-old godmother. Given the longstanding under-representation of Black Brazilians in traditional media, Vicente’s visibility is a reprieve from the crime and poverty that is often used to characterise favelas.
“I’m a Black, poor, gay boy who has lived in Maré [my entire life] … Us people, we don’t have the same opportunities as those who don’t live in the favela, our struggle always requires double the amount of grit, double the amount of work,” says Vicente. “I actually succeeded, for real. Little by little, I can change this reality, this vision that people outside the favela have of us.”
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Bored at work?
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