Good morning. When Benjamin Netanyahu lost power last June, he insisted he would be back. “With God’s help,” he said in a valedictory speech, “that will happen much sooner than you think.” 16 months later, he looks all but certain to be prime minister of Israel again.
The count of the votes in the country’s fifth election in four years will not be completed until later today, and coalition talks could take weeks to complete. But by the tally so far, Netanyahu’s rightwing Likud party is the largest group in the Knesset – and the broad coalition formed to topple him last year looks likely to be thrown into opposition.
Even though he has faced corruption charges and remains a sharply divisive figure among voters, the return of “King Bibi” as prime minister isn’t exactly a surprise. The really remarkable thing is who looks like getting him there. As he seeks to cobble together a majority in the Knesset, Netanyahu has turned to a new set of allies on the far right of Israeli politics: the Religious Zionist Party, who want to give IDF soldiers immunity from prosecution and deport “disloyal” Palestinian citizens.
For today’s newsletter, I spoke to the Guardian’s Jerusalem correspondent, Bethan McKernan, about the return of Likud, the rise of the Religious Zionists – and how Bibi helped them get there. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Asylum | The Home Office abandoned asylum seekers from the Manston immigration centre in central London without accommodation or warm clothing, the Guardian can reveal. Amid acute overcrowding at Manston, charity volunteers said 11 people were left at Victoria station on Tuesday evening with nowhere to stay.
Interest rates | Mortgage rates are expected to jump on Thursday in response to the largest increase in the Bank of England’s base rate since 1989, as the central bank tries to bring down inflation. The base interest rate is expected to go up by 0.75 percentage points to 3%.
Poverty | The United Nations’ poverty envoy has warned Rishi Sunak that a new wave of austerity in this month’s budget could violate the UK’s international human rights obligations and increase hunger. Olivier de Schutter said he was “extremely troubled” by likely multibillion-pound spending cuts.
Policing | Two Metropolitan police officers have been sentenced to three months’ imprisonment after sharing racist, homophobic, misogynistic and ableist messages in a WhatsApp group with Wayne Couzens before he murdered Sarah Everard. The two men were bailed ahead of an appeal.
Media | Eric Allison, who became the Guardian’s prison correspondent aged 60 after spending much of his life in jail, has died aged 79. Former Guardian editor Alan Rusbridger said Allison “cast a steady light on a world successive governments would rather were kept in the dark”.
In depth: The election that proves Israel ‘still lives in a Netanyahu world’
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What happened in the election?
With 88% of votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu and Likud had a projected 32 seats in the 120-member Knesset – only a little better than the 30 seats which left them in opposition last year. Yesh Atid, the leading left-wing party, actually improved its position from 17 seats to 24.
The crucial change is the decline of smaller anti-Netanyahu parties, and the success of the Religious Zionist bloc, which appears on course to win 14 seats – eight up on last time, and enough to give Netanyahu a majority.
“Netanyahu has been striking quite a cautious tone,” said Bethan McKernan – admirably lucid after a few hours of sleep. “He’s aware that celebrating too early would be asking for trouble. The mood among Likud members and activists – they’re pretty psyched, but they’re not partying just yet.”
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How did Netanyahu force his way back into office?
In the same speech in which he told the Knesset that he would soon be back, Netanyahu vowed to lead “a daily battle against this bad, dangerous, leftwing government to topple it.” He has made good on his word – and was greatly helped by the depth of divisions in a fragile governing coalition which ran from Arab parties and the liberal left to religious nationalists disaffected with Netanyahu’s rule.
In this piece from June, Bethan and Quique Kierszenbaum explain how Netanyahu “capitalised on the coalition’s disunity by encouraging the opposition to vote against every bill the coalition proposes, no matter its content, in order to further paralyse his rivals.” Defections destroyed its narrow majority, eventually forcing new elections.
While Bibi was not yet back, Noga Tarnopolsky wrote for the Atlantic Council in June, “it is also true that Israel still lives in a Netanyahu world. Here, political reality is filtered through his lens.” But the election results are also a rejection of a diverse government, incorporating voices from Israel’s Arab minority, in favour of a coalition which insists that Israel must be a Jewish state. And it makes the prospect of a two-state solution seem even more distant.
Netanyahu was instrumental to the Religious Zionists’ success, Bethan said. “He made this happen. He persuaded three far right parties to merge last year, with the promise of ministerial positions if they succeeded.” The merger was crucial, because it vastly improved their chances of crossing a 3.25% threshold for Knesset representation.
“Netanyahu doesn’t like them – he’s always preferred a broader spectrum of parties, including centrists, in his coalition,” Bethan said. “But he would form a coalition with anyone if it would keep him in office.” In this analysis published yesterday, Bethan explains how the Religious Zionists could drag Netanyahu further to the right.
If Netanyahu needed any extra motivation, it was provided by the criminal prosecution he faces on corruption charges: the Religious Zionists, and their rising star Itamar Ben-Gvir, have promised support for changes to the legal code which could help him evade conviction. “His personal and professional life were both on the line here,” Bethan said. “He needed to be in office to combat the corruption charges effectively, and he appears to be willing to burn everything down to achieve that.”
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Who is Itamar Ben-Gvir?
In a weekend profile of Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose Jewish Strength party is part of the Religious Zionist slate, Bethan explains the toxic politics of the man who is perhaps the greatest beneficiary of Netanyahu’s desire for office. Ben-Gvir (above) has convictions for incitement to racism and supporting an outlawed ultra-nationalist terrorist organisation. He reportedly had “a picture of the terrorist Baruch Goldstein [responsible for the massacre of 29 Palestinian Muslims in 1994] in his living room”.
He has toned down the rhetoric since winning a Knesset seat, but still calls for the deportation of “disloyal” Palestinians. Last month he drew a pistol during a confrontation with a group of Palestinian protesters, urging police to shoot them for throwing stones. Other policies include legal immunity for IDF soldiers, and stripping the High Court of the power to strike down unconstitutional laws.
“He’s terrifying, frankly,” said Bethan. “He’s charismatic, he’s cheerful, and he works hard – every time there’s a terrorist attack in Israel, he’s immediately there, broadcasting on social media or saying he will stop it if he’s in government, that he has a gun and he’s not afraid to use it.”
At a rally Bethan attended to report that piece, “there were teenage girls there, saying, ‘Oh my god, he’s so cute!’ He represents a large and growing proportion of the Jewish Israeli population which is intolerant, and is racist.”
She points to August analysis by the Israel Democracy Institute, which found that 62% of Jewish Israelis identify as right-wing – a figure which has risen from 46% in 2019 and is even higher among the 18-24s.
Ben-Gvir’s apparent success, she added, comes against a backdrop of violence in the West Bank and inter-community clashes within Israel. “The West Bank is on fire – it’s not quite a third intifada, but it’s not impossible. It’s a stick rather than a carrot for a lot of people. Voters are wary of what Ben-Gvir stands for, but they’d prefer a coherent right wing government to the mess there is now.”
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What happens now?
One key question is which ministries Netanyahu will hand to Ben-Gvir and his allies. “The danger is that he will be held hostage by the demands of the far right,” Bethan said. “Ben-Gvir has said he wants the public security ministry: it would allow him to focus on what he wants, which is training police and security forces to do the things he wants to do.”
For Arab Israelis, many of whom feel let down by the collapse of a joint list of the parties which represent them, the success of the Religious Zionists appears cause for grave concern. On Monday, Esawi Frej, Israel’s second Muslim cabinet minister and a member of the secular left-wing Meretz party, which appears likely to win no seats, wrote on Twitter: “The third largest party in the Knesset is a racist … violent party that doesn’t want me or my children here. This is no longer a slippery slope. This is the abyss itself.”
Such concerns, or warnings from Israel’s international partners against Netanyahu working with the Religious Zionists, appear likely to go unheard. “If this is what his voters want, what’s to stop him?” Bethan asked. “The far right do not care what the rest of the world thinks. They couldn’t give a monkey’s about a statement from Joe Biden. What this means for Palestinian citizens of Israel, and Palestinians in general – the violent settlers who were attacking them, those guys are the government now.”
What else we’ve been reading
The Guardian has lost two giants in the last week: Ian Jack and now Eric Allison (above). Eric, who claimed to be the only man to ever escape from Strangeways prison in Manchester, wrote last year about how his inability to help a friend may have contributed to his desire to go straight - though “reporting doesn’t pay nearly as well as crime (and is considerably more stressful)”. And these letters from readers bring home how much Ian’s writing meant to them. Archie
Channel 4, known for some of Britain’s most cutting-edge television, turned 40 yesterday. Michael Hogan takes us on a trip down memory lane with its top 40 shows. Nimo
Among many highlights of Alex Hern’s piece on Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover are the eye-watering details of his management style. “If Musk sounds like the boss from hell, well, you wouldn’t be the first to think so,” he writes. Archie
David Coulson was given a life sentence for stealing $14, and went on to spend two decades in a California prison. Coulson was finally released this year after a judge reviewed his case and said that his sentence “shocks the conscience and offends fundamental notions of human dignity”. Sam Levin takes us through Coulson’s story and how California’s “tough on crime” laws derailed his life. Nimo
After reports of astronomical profits from big oil companies, the case for a windfall tax only grows more compelling. Robert Weissman clearly lays out why it’s time that the US government implements a policy that is already backed by the American people. Nimo
Sport
Champions League | Rico Lewis became the youngest Englishman to score in the Champions League, propelling Man City to a 3-1 win over Sevilla. Chelsea’s 2-1 win over Dinamo Zagreb was marred by a late injury to Ben Chilwell, putting the defender’s chances of being fit for the World Cup at risk.
Cricket | India beat Bangladesh by five runs in the T20 World Cup, a narrow victory which edges them closer to the semi-finals. Meanwhile, Zimbabwe crashed out of the tournament after a five-wicket defeat by the Netherlands.
Baseball | Pitchers for the Houston Astros combined to produce just the second ever World Series no-hitter - not allowing a single batter to get on base through all nine innings - and lead their team to a 5-0 victory against the Philadelphia Phillies. The victory levels the seven-game series 2-2.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with “Home office abandoned Manston asylum seekers on London street” and reports that some men were left without accommodation or warm clothing. The i says “Home office leaves coach of migrants at train station in ‘major error’”.
The Financial Times’ headline is “Fed signals slower for longer approach to future rises after lifting rates again”, while the Telegraph says “Bank set for biggest rate rise since Black Wednesday” as the paper looks ahead to interest rate rises today. The Times says “Sunak prepares big tax grab from energy firms”.
The Mirror reports on Matt Hancock’s decision to join I’m a Celebrity, under the headline “Lies camera action”. The Sun says strictly star Fleur East had to restart last week’s dance off with the banner, “BBC cover up Fleur’s strictly tumble”. Finally the Mail reveals “One in six of us born overseas” with census data showing a “dramatic social shift in just a decade”.
Today in Focus
Can Twitter survive Elon Musk? (And can Musk survive Twitter?)
Elon Musk marched into Twitter as its new owner last week and immediately started making changes. Alex Hern reports on what lies ahead for the social media company
Cartoon of the day | Steve Bell
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
A remote indigenous community in Alice Springs, Australia is pioneering the use of 3D printed-homes which could change the lives of those who live in rural areas. Traditional owners of Mparntwe (Alice Springs) land are planning to collaborate with Melbourne-based company Luyten to 3D-print five homes at the Indigenous community of Ilpeye Ilpeye.
The CEO of Luyten, Ahmed Mahil, says that for communities who live in remote and rural places that often have extreme climates, 3D printing offers a more affordable way to insulate homes.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
