Good morning. Considering the promises that the Conservative leadership contest would be ruthlessly efficient at whittling down the field, there really are quite a lot of people left who still think they might be prime minister.
After the first round of voting, Rishi Sunak is in the lead, and Liz Truss has a speech scheduled where she will promise to make the UK an “aspiration nation,” whatever that is – but it’s Penny Mordaunt who’s on many of the front pages today for her surging performance. Meanwhile, chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and former runner-up Jeremy Hunt have been eliminated. Them’s the breaks, as someone once said.
With the second round of voting today, the field will narrow a little further – and until the parliamentary party sends two candidates for the consideration of the membership next week, you’ll hear a lot about how horse-trading and backroom deals could influence the outcome. Today’s newsletter focuses on something more likely to shape the future of our country: what are the deeper factors that lead MPs to back a particular candidate?
That’s a question that can help us understand what’s happening in this leadership election – but its other use is probably even more important: it tells us who the next prime minister might owe their victory to. We’ll get under the bonnet after the headlines.
Five big stories
UK news | Fresh allegations of sexual misconduct have been levelled at DJ Tim Westwood, who has been accused of having sex with a 14-year-old girl when he was in his 30s. Westwood strenuously denies all wrongdoing.
Sri Lanka | Tensions remained on a knife-edge in Colombo after the promised resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had still not appeared by Thursday morning. Rajapaksa escaped to the Maldives early on Wednesday under pressure from protesters furious over Sri Lanka’s deepening economic crisis.
Champions league final | Liverpool supporters were unfairly and wrongly blamed for the chaotic scenes at the Champions League final in Paris last season to “divert attention” from the real failure of the state and organisers, a French senate report has found.
Politics | Boris Johnson is tabling a vote of no confidence in the government, following a failed attempt by Labour to do the same. The wording of the motion will allow Conservative MPs to back the government without endorsing the prime minister.
Mo Farah | The Metropolitan police has launched an investigation into claims by the four-time Olympic champion that he was trafficked into the UK and forced into domestic servitude. Farah told a BBC documentary that he was brought to London under an assumed name after escaping war in Somalia aged nine.
In depth: Who’s giving Mordaunt momentum?
Patrick Flynn is a political analyst at Smarkets, a betting exchange with a strong business interest in understanding the underlying dynamics of the contest to be Conservative leader. You needn’t be a gambler to find his work enormously helpful in making sense of the race.
Flynn doesn’t pay much attention to sweatbox campaign launches or eccentric social media videos; instead, he looks at the MPs who have declared their support for a particular candidate, then uses that information to make a prediction about who other, similar MPs might back. (The race is a secret ballot, so those declarations are an imperfect guide to the bigger picture, but the best we have.) He also looks at how votes will be reallocated as less popular candidates drop out.
This isn’t Paul the Psychic Octopus stuff: in 2019, Flynn’s forecast of the distribution of MPs’ votes among the top three leadership candidates was out by only one. In the first two rounds of this contest, his projections have done extremely well, including that Zahawi and Hunt would be the only contenders knocked out last night.
“We look at lots of things – their record on social and economic issues, how long they’ve been in parliament, how heavily their constituency backed remain,” he said. “What it doesn’t tell you is how endorsements or tactical voting or those sorts of Westminster games will affect the outcome.” Also, shockingly, Flynn didn’t look at the Rehman Chishti electoral juggernaut. All that being said, here are some of the most interesting details in the data – and, in case you’re interested, here’s the spreadsheet underpinning it to explore to your heart’s content.
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MPs under threat from the Lib Dems or over Brexit back Sunak
The former chancellor has a big advantage among MPs in constituencies where the closest rival at the last election was a Lib Dem – he has 19 declared supporters among that group, with Penny Mordaunt second with just eight. Not coincidentally, Sunak also has 18 supporters in remain constituencies, with nobody else still standing picking up more than four.
His supporters also have smaller average majorities than his biggest rivals, Mordaunt and Truss. In other words: MPs in marginal seats, and those who fear that their constituents will boot them out because of the government’s Brexit policies, seem to see him as their best electoral asset – even though he campaigned to leave the EU.
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Leave supporters are still divided (but will unite eventually)
Whereas Sunak enjoys a big lead among remainers – 37 of the 61 of that group to declare so far – he is way back among leave supporters, in fifth place. That vote is much more split, with Badenoch and Braverman on 13, Truss on 14, and Mordaunt leading on 18. But those votes are very likely to ultimately be pooled for a single “Brexit candidate”. Mordaunt and Truss both have supporters with a high average of Brexit support in their constituencies: 58% (against 53% for Sunak).
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Radical candidates aren’t getting the support of vulnerable MPs
Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman have both claimed that their “anti-woke” cultural stances are the best way of winning back marginal constituencies of “common sense” voters. Tory MPs in tight races seem to disagree. 14 of Badenoch’s 24 supporters enjoy majorities of more than 30%, against just two with majorities of less than 10%. Likewise, 9 of Braverman’s supporters have very comfortable majorities, and just three are in close races. Neither is likely to win the leadership – but this does give an interesting sense that those on the political frontlines don’t share their enthusiasm for culture wars.
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Mordaunt draws almost all her support from the backbenches …
Fascinatingly, 32 of Mordaunt’s 38 declared supporters have not been on the government payroll since Boris Johnson took office – a very different ratio to her main rivals, Sunak and Truss. That makes sense: she is known to have spent a lot of time courting backbenchers. It also suggests that if she wins, we could see a significant changing of the guard in government (although if she stays in the race late, she is likely to pick up some cabinet endorsements).
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… And she’s gaining momentum
After last night’s vote, Sunak might appear to be in a commanding position, with 88 votes in his favour, against 67 for Mordaunt, 50 for Truss, 40 for Badenoch, 37 for Tom Tugendhat and 32 for Suella Braverman.
But Flynn’s projections suggest Sunak has a smaller pool from which he can draw additional votes in the remaining rounds than his rivals to the right. For example, while there have been some claims that Badenoch’s supporters are likely to break for Sunak, they tend to have much more in common with supporters of the other candidates in the race. A new forecast by Flynn last night, reflecting fresh declarations of MPs’ support after Mordaunt’s strong result, suggests that Sunak may not now finish first in the parliamentary party (you can see it in more detail here):
That blows a big hole in his presentation as the inevitable, sensible choice – and also undermines any claims that he could attempt to pick his preferred rival in the membership vote by lending his support, as Johnson was rumoured to have done in 2019.
A YouGov poll yesterday found that Sunak would lose to every single rival still in the race among Tory members, whereas Mordaunt would beat all of them – and while there are plenty who urge caution because the membership are very difficult to survey, the poll already seems to be influencing some MPs. (It might explain the only significant difference between Flynn’s prediction and reality – overestimating Sunak’s vote by 12 and underestimating Mordaunt’s by 10 before the poll came out – as he noted himself yesterday afternoon before the vote.)
Things can, of course, still change, and nobody would be shocked if televised debates reshape the race. But if Mordaunt does win, her victory will be built on the support of pro-Brexit backbenchers without deep ties to Boris Johnson who are less focussed on cultural issues than supporters of Braverman, Badenoch or Truss.
“The deeper you get into the contest, the narrower Sunak’s advantage gets,” said Flynn. “However strong he might seem, it looks downhill from here.”
What else we’ve been reading
Selling Sunset, Grand Designs and Marriage or Mortgage are some of the many wildly popular property shows around. Vicky Spratt looks at how “property porn” could be fuelling a spiralling housing crisis. Nimo
Stuart Jeffries writes that the BBC’s remarkable Mo Farah documentary is “beautifully made and often heartbreaking” – as well as a “profoundly topical” story. Archie
The danceable beats of disco are once again rising through the charts. Oliver Keens explores the dubious history of the disco edit and why it’s having a resurgence. Nimo
Amy Fleming spoke to the overseas nurses who have been keeping the NHS running for years. These candid accounts raise the curtain on what it’s like to work for an institution with chronic staff and resource shortages. Nimo
Deeply alarming allegations about the conduct of SAS officers in Afghanistan have been met by a number of complaints that view the reporting as unpatriotic. This piece on The Fence, by an intelligence officer who spent 20 years working alongside the SAS, tells a very different story. Archie
Sport
Football | Sweden took a vital step towards the knockout stages at Euro 2022 with a 2-1 win over Switzerland. Later, Netherlands beat Portugal 3-2.
Cycling | Last year’s runner-up Jonas Vingegaard took over the yellow jersey from the man who beat him, Tadej Pogacar, after a dramatic attack in the Alps. Pogacar lost almost three minutes.
Golf | The chief executive of the R&A, the body which governs the Open championship, has hit out at the Saudi-backed LIV Series, saying it is “entirely driven by money”. Ahead of the Open, which begins at St Andrews today, Martin Slumbers warned LIV Series participants: “There is no such thing as a free lunch.”
The front pages
The Guardian print edition leads today with “Pressure on Truss as Tory rivals steal march in leadership battle”. With one particular candidate in everyone’s thoughts, a number of headlines are similarly coined. The i says “Mordaunt surge rattles rivals in race for No 10” and the Metro is similarly minded with “PM for PM?”. “The Six Factor” – that’s the Sun which highlights the X in “six”, as in “X factor”, and says “Penny new fave”. The Mail is worried: “Unite NOW or we lose, Truss tells Tory right” and the paper also says “New favourite Penny under fire for ‘lies’ on trans views”. In the Times the top story is “Surge for Mordaunt in race to be Tory leader” and the Express has “It’s hotting up! Mordaunt surges in race for No10”. The Telegraph’s lead is “Mordaunt seizes the momentum after first Tory ballot”. There is little enthusiasm for any of the runners in the Mirror: “Cost of living crisis … what cost of living crisis?”. It says that while punters are pinched, the candidates want to “cut tax for the rich and slash the state”. Penny Mordaunt’s also on the front of the Financial Times, which says “Mordaunt and Sunak lead fight to become Tory leader”. The paper’s top story, though, is “US inflation piles pressure on Fed for big rate increase”.
Today in Focus
The race for the Tory leadership
After Boris Johnson resigned last week, 11 candidates came forward to replace him. Today, with six candidates remaining, Conservative MPs will vote in the second round of the contest
Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Harrison Ford, a titan of Hollywood and original movie star, has turned 80. Ford has a 56-year career under his belt, from Star Wars to Blade Runner to Working Girl, and has entertained generations. And unlike his contemporaneous counterparts, Ford has always been an old man at heart. Cynical, cranky and a treasure, Ford is everyone’s grandad.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
